Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[mikee11]

smh everyone here so biased for the movie you never know if the numbers are good or bad 

[weresweresweres]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Night at the Museum 1 should be a pretty great comparison with Jumanji right now. NATM ended up with $250M DOM due to January holds, Jum can end up with a bit more or a bit less since it opened a bit bigger than NATM.

Jumanji - NATM

12.4 - 12,1 (December 22th)
14.8 - 12.5
9.0 - 5.7
19 - 11.7
17 - 13.5

Jumanji had 19 mln Monday, and 17 mln Tuesday so does Sing. Jumanji total 89 mln vs 93 Sing. Jumanji should end higher than 250 mln

[RandomCat]

I'll be honest, forceuser707 (who isn't a big SW fan) is perhaps my favorite weird poster on here.

[REC]

I'm honestly curious to see if it makes it over 650m DOM.  Everyone thought this movie would make 800m DOM a month ago, now it's probably going to come short of that.  The questions are how much and why.  That has nothing to do with bias for or against TLJ as a product it's just very curious that it seems to be coming under expectations.  Yes lots of details in the market and calendar conspire against it, but I think the key thing is that it's not overperforming against that backdrop when it had every ability to.

 

And correct me if I'm wrong we still don't have TLJ actuals from Tues.  I don't know what the real number is.  It's been off it's estimates lately.

Edited December 27, 2017 by REC

[Eric the Ape]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

10th anniversary of this masterpiece coming up.

 

I still remember little 10 year old me seeing that poster in the theater once, and being absolutely traumatized by the mouth-eye things.

[That One Girl]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

I still remember little 10 year old me seeing that poster in the theater once, and being absolutely traumatized by the mouth-eye things.

 

I didn't even notice his eyes were mouths until you pointed that out just now.

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji doing such good numbers while going up against TLJ is damn impressive. Talk about picking the perfect release date.

So Jumanji would have made 50m less in the summer last July, in its original release date?

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, REC said:

 

 

And correct me if I'm wrong we still don't have TLJ actuals from Tues.  I don't know what the real number is.  It's been off it's estimates lately.

Are you doubting our Asgardian?

His numbers are always on point, if not extremely close to actuals.

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, REC said:

I'm honestly curious to see if it makes it over 650m DOM.  Everyone thought this movie would make 800m DOM a month ago, now it's probably going to come short of that.  The questions are how much and why.  That has nothing to do with bias for or against TLJ as a product it's just very curious that it seems to be coming under expectations.  Yes lots of details in the market and calendar conspire against it, but I think the key thing is that it's not overperforming against that backdrop when it had every ability to.

 

And correct me if I'm wrong we still don't have TLJ actuals from Tues.  I don't know what the real number is.  It's been off it's estimates lately.

3

 

 

The movie lost some gross due to a backlash against its progressive ideals showing what is wrong with our nation. 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I still remember little 10 year old me seeing that poster in the theater once, and being absolutely traumatized by the mouth-eye things.

[EmpireCity]

7 minutes ago, REC said:

I'm honestly curious to see if it makes it over 650m DOM.  Everyone thought this movie would make 800m DOM a month ago, now it's probably going to come short of that.  The questions are how much and why.  That has nothing to do with bias for or against TLJ as a product it's just very curious that it seems to be coming under expectations.  Yes lots of details in the market and calendar conspire against it, but I think the key thing is that it's not overperforming against that backdrop when it had every ability to.

 

And correct me if I'm wrong we still don't have TLJ actuals from Tues.  I don't know what the real number is.  It's been off it's estimates lately.

 

"Everyone" thought this movie would make $800m domestic a month ago?  Lol.  

 

Yeah, we do have the numbers pretty much from Tuesday within a very small percentage.  $28.2m

[Lordmandeep]

I think its more accurate to say  almost everyone thought that this movie was doing over 700 million and after that opening weekend it looked like a done deal. 

[REC]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Yeah, we do have the numbers pretty much from Tuesday within a very small percentage.  $28.2m

Ok saying "everyone" was probably hyperbolic.  Many people then.  And thank you for affirming the number.

[RandomCat]

looks like the board was split 40/60 if TLJ was even going to cross 734M.

 

 

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, REC said:

Ok saying "everyone" was probably hyperbolic.  Many people then.  And thank you for affirming the number.

My first prediction was $800M. Then I lowered it to $770M, which is a reasonable 3.5 multi for a $220M weekend. I say reasonable because I figured the multi could surpass RO but obviously fall short of the phenomenon that was TFA.

 

With good WOM, I don't see how a 3.5 multi is unreasonable for this time of year. However, the dailies are showing that not as many people are packing the theatres to see this as we thought based on that opening weekend.

Edited December 27, 2017 by JB33

[Brainbug]

27 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The problem here is that people continue saying that TLJ was never supposed to compete with TFa when it actually did so OW. What was even the drop? Less than 10%?

 

TLJ would always have a gargantuan OW. The cliffhanger ending of TFA, SW loonies beeing SW loonies beeing a big part of American moviegoers and rave reviews (deservedly!) made sure that 200M+ was practically a sure thing. TFA became the real monster that it is when it had under 40% weekend drops. THAT made it a near 1B-DOM grosser. Not the OW alone.

[JB33]

By the way, this is coming from an absolute Star Wars loonie who enjoyed TLJ (for what it was anyway, but that's for another discussion) so there's no bias going on here. I just choose to tell it like it is. 

 

Remember, too, this is based on Star Wars' impossibly high standards. It may be kind of unfair, but that's what comes with being the top dog. Lofty expectations. These dailies are huge for any movie but yeah, they would be considered disappointing drops/bumps in this case.

[FantasticBeasts]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

TLJ would always have a gargantuan OW. The cliffhanger ending of TFA, SW loonies beeing SW loonies beeing a big part of American moviegoers and rave reviews (deservedly!) made sure that 200M+ was practically a sure thing. TFA became the real monster that it is when it had under 40% weekend drops. THAT made it a near 1B-DOM grosser. Not the OW alone.

Normal holiday legs would have made TLJ competable in some sense with TFA.

[The Panda]

32 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

I'll be honest, forceuser707 (who isn't a big SW fan) is perhaps my favorite weird poster on here.

So, has he come back to destroy our complacent appraisals?

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Normal holiday legs would have made TLJ competable in some sense with TFA.

 

Honestly, i have to disagree. Even with the best WOM in the world, TLJ would have always been more frontloaded and less leggy than TFA. TFA was a true cultural phenomenon, the return of Star Wars. People saw it that will never see a movie again in theaters. Its drops were never achievable for any SW movie again.

 

If the WOM for TLJ would be less mixed, we would see better drops, yes. But TFA's drops and numbers were never the goal.