Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[RandomCat]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Devil Inside made x100 it's budget..

Talk about success! 

Spend ten dollars, and making a 100 is assume.

[redfirebird2008]

So 55.7 for Monday/Tuesday. That’s about 20 lower than we expected. 

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Good to see TLJ increase. Today is the anniversary of Carrie's Death RIP so maybe that softens the drop. Some fans may want to pay tribute by seeing the movie even if they aren't too hot for it. 

I think it will be a negligible effect.

[LonePirate]

2 hours ago, estebanJ said:

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

It will average $20M+ every day for the next six days. That puts it somewhere around $540M at a minimum. I’m sure it can find another $60M from January 2 until the end of its run.

[Lordmandeep]

It should 20 million today easily or else WTF lol 

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Mrwick said:

Star wars is not under performing. TFA was just massive. Everyone and their mums went to see it, even my nan who never goes to the cinema and has alzheimer's went to see it knowing full well she would forget all about it 10 mins after leaving the cinema. TLJ was never coming close to it even if it was the best star wars ever.

I'd say it's underperforming given its OW.

[Valonqar]

Just now, cannastop said:

I think it will be a negligible effect.

I think you're right. 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

It should 20 million today easily or else WTF lol 

omg, you're right.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Mrwick said:

Star wars is not under performing. TFA was just massive.

Hmmmmm 🤔

[Lordmandeep]

It depends sub 700 after such an opening is a tad of a let down.

[Valonqar]

OW rises and a drop to meet it. 

 

Powerful OW, powerful drop.

 

This is not going to hold the way you think.

 

I've seen this raw drop before - in Devil Inside. It did not scare me enough then, it does now. 

 

[LinksterAC]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

It depends sub 700 after such an opening is a tad of a let down.

It is for me as well.

 

But on the flip side, I think we all would have been pretty impressed if TFA hit these numbers in 2015.

[baumer]

I, Tonya was incredible, btw.  Robbie and Janney are shoe ins for Oscar noms, I'm assuming.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

It is for me as well.

 

But on the flip side, I think we all would have been pretty impressed if TFA hit these numbers in 2015.

Which means that TLJ would struggle to hit 400M. 

 

Poor movie cannot catch a break. It was never going to perform like the event of the decade that re-launched the franchise. It's not hitting even the most pessimistic expectations after its arguably stellar OW (that we all knew would go down from TFA but it ended up higher than most projections). It's saddled with a bad calendar. It's upstaged by Jumanji. Its holiday under-performance (relative to expectations) is the most popular source for click-bait think-pieces of the season (aka slow news week). It didn't increase broom sales despite blatant product placement. 

 

[mahnamahna]

Jumanji is still doing solid. Thinking 13.6/14.2/16.5/17.8/10.7/16.1 - $177.9 million after 13 days. $240-270 million DOM is fantastic for Sony, giving them a new franchise beyond Spidey and Hotel Transylvania. While IT, Get Out and Wonder Woman were bigger surprise hits, Jumanji definitely ranks high considering many were predicting $90-110 million DOM. 

 

TLJ did fine enough. $640-670 million DOM is still likely.

 

PP3 rebounded nicely. Thinking 5.5/5.8/7.1/7.9/4.1/5.7 - $73.7 million after 11 days. If it holds a little better than I expect, it could get to $75-77 million DOM, putting it in the $95-100 million DOM range. 

 

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

Controversial but based on how things are headed, think the WOM and buzz around the film likely will take off around 50-100 million of the gross. 

 

Think if it was as liked TFA likely be flirting with 800 million. 

 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Mojoguy]

Night at the Museum 1 should be a pretty great comparison with Jumanji right now. NATM ended up with $250M DOM due to January holds, Jum can end up with a bit more or a bit less since it opened a bit bigger than NATM.

Jumanji - NATM

12.4 - 12,1 (December 22th)
14.8 - 12.5
9.0 - 5.7
19 - 11.7
17 - 13.5

[JB33]

Ugh, FFS nobody is comparing TLJ to TFA. We're talking about the dailies and the drops here. No, TLJ is no TFA but it DID make $220M on its opening weekend and it IS enjoying this plum holiday slot. Yes, the calendar has played a part, but it should have had better numbers over its 2nd weekend (Christmas Eve Sunday obviously notwithstanding - it was always going to have a big 2nd weekend drop because of that) and Christmas Day could have been a lot better.

 

You don't have to keep reminding us that it's still a big movie and that it would never have compared to TFA. We. Know! But this is a box office forum so we're going underneath the surface and taking a closer look at the numbers. That's why we're here! Not to go "Wow, TLJ is gonna make $600M!" and then just move on. I can go to SHH or CBM and do that.

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I, Tonya was incredible, btw.  Robbie and Janney are shoe ins for Oscar noms, I'm assuming.

They are (or at least Janney is).

Edited December 27, 2017 by filmlover

[FantasticBeasts]

The problem here is that people continue saying that TLJ was never supposed to compete with TFa when it actually did so OW. What was even the drop? Less than 10%?