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Porthos

Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

By Porthos, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

22 would be about right 
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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, heynow said:

I am new at this movie business stuff.  But would appreciate any assistance on what do you all think will be this upcoming weekend's boxoffice for TLJ and Jumanji?

 

TLJ will have a light drop around 20-30% imo. Every other movie has a great chance at staying flat or increasing from the 3-Day Christmas weekend. Jumanji in particular has a very good shot at 40M+

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George Parr Box Office Gold

George Parr

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Pretty sad, actually. WOM is mixed at best.

What has coming in a bit above or below an estimate have to do with WOM? :blink:

 

All it really says is that people got their calculations from earlier in the day a bit wrong (and not that much anyway). There weren't any more or less people going to the theater because of that earlier number, nor does the audience behaviour over the day depend on WOM.

 

I mean, Sunday came in 3m above the estimates. That didn't suddenly turn the WOM into being epic beyond belief.

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FantasticBeasts Blockbuster

FantasticBeasts

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, George Parr said:

What has coming in a bit above or below an estimate have to do with WOM? :blink:

 

All it really says is that people got their calculations from earlier in the day a bit wrong (and not that much anyway). There weren't any more or less people going to the theater because of that earlier number, nor does the audience behaviour over the day depend on WOM.

 

I mean, Sunday came in 3m above the estimates. That didn't suddenly turn the WOM into being epic beyond belief.

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

Coco went down too - just two hours ago the Tuesday estimate was $3M, and now the actual is at $2.746M. Don't think I've ever seen such a discrepancy with morning estimates vs actuals later the same day.

 

Peace,

Mike

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

Posted
Posted (edited)

I’m assuming if you (“you” meaning anyone) predict a $50-55 million weekend for TLJ or whatever, you have Wednesday and Thursday in the $16M range or something? Or maybe $17M? Just curious.

 

If it hit $19M Wednesday and say $18M Thursday (not sure if these would happen, but Rogue One was down 30% on the 27th), I would think an increase to $20-22M Friday and $24-26M Saturday with a $16 million Sunday. That’s let’s say $60 million to $64 million third weekend. Again that would look realistic if Wed and Thurs were a stones throw from $20M, but I’m assuming you see more like a $15-17M range for each day? Could be quite realistic I just am curious.

Edited by JonathanLB
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