New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[EmpireCity]

25 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

I mean outside of the numbers which you have access to, you have been wrong every step of the way regarding the reception of this film. 9 will break 450 easily but it could very well do under 8

 

20 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Eh in the early stages of the spoiler thread he kept insiiting that the reception wasn't mixed and that anyone saying that was a blind fanboy you can go check if you want

 

14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Were you here when he said every negative review on rottentomatoes were due to trolls?

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

He said that all were trolls.

 

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The point was that the online reaction was mixed but refused to accept it (he probably still refuses it).

 

Metacritic was a 4chan troll raid.. RT all bots... etc etc

 

These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted.  Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time.  

 

Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc...

 

I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss.  Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire.  It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot.  

 

With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning.  Not surprising.  

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

That is just bullshit, RT is way less scientific.

lol, i never said anything about RT, fam.  but the sample sizes for cinemascore are INSANELY low.

 

Thirty-five to 45 teams of CinemaScore representatives are present in 25 large cities across North America. Each Friday, representatives in five randomly chosen cities give opening-day audiences a small survey card.^[6][7][8] The card asks for age, gender, a grade for the film between A+ and F, whether they would rent or buy the film on DVD or Blu-ray, and why they chose the film.^[7] CinemaScore typically receives about 400 cards per film;^[9]the company estimates a 65% response rate and 6% margin of error.^[8] The ratings are divided by gender and age groups (under 21, 21–34, 35 and up).^[4] Film studios and other subscribers receive the data at about 11 p.m. Pacific Time. CinemaScore publishes letter grades to the public on social media and, although the detailed data is proprietary, the grades quickly spread widely throughout the media and the industry, as studio executives brag about successes and mock competitors' failures. Subsequent advertisements for highly ranked films often cite their CinemaScore grades.^[7][9][8]

[Webslinger]

at Jumanji's performance this week. It's kicking a ton of ass and should continue to do so into January. I won't be surprised if it knocks Last Jedi off the top spot next weekend.

[RyneOh1040]

2 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

It's five random theaters on opening night that's not a poll

ah yes, facts.

[Porthos]

Just checking.

 

Are some folks seriously predicting sub-500m for Ep 9, or are they riffing/meming in the thread?  Coz, honestly, I'm not going to go back and find out.

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, boomboom234 said:

It's five random theaters on opening night that's not a poll

We have a sample of 5000 people with Cinemascore, and we also have two other scientific polling places confirming it. if you are complaining about lack of accuracy in polling, yet trust the RT score, you are being silly.

[MovieMan89]

IF 9 were as divisive or even more so than TLJ, then maybe I could see something as low as 500. Otherwise it shouldn't dip below 600. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by MovieMan89

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning.  Not surprising.  

I'm sorry if it feels as though I was intentionally misrepresenting what you said but that's really what I remember you saying! I shouldn't have brought this up let's move on.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted.  Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time.  

 

Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc...

 

I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss.  Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire.  It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot.  

 

With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning.  Not surprising.  

 

You could call them Fake News

Can you give us a very early hush at the Sat numbers? I know its way too early but i just want to know

 

[NoLegMan]

3 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

lol, i never said anything about RT, fam.  but the sample sizes for cinemascore are INSANELY low.

 

Thirty-five to 45 teams of CinemaScore representatives are present in 25 large cities across North America. Each Friday, representatives in five randomly chosen cities give opening-day audiences a small survey card.^[6][7][8] The card asks for age, gender, a grade for the film between A+ and F, whether they would rent or buy the film on DVD or Blu-ray, and why they chose the film.^[7] CinemaScore typically receives about 400 cards per film;^[9]the company estimates a 65% response rate and 6% margin of error.^[8] The ratings are divided by gender and age groups (under 21, 21–34, 35 and up).^[4] Film studios and other subscribers receive the data at about 11 p.m. Pacific Time. CinemaScore publishes letter grades to the public on social media and, although the detailed data is proprietary, the grades quickly spread widely throughout the media and the industry, as studio executives brag about successes and mock competitors' failures. Subsequent advertisements for highly ranked films often cite their CinemaScore grades.^[7][9][8]

Thanks for just proving my fucking point, that it's a scientific poll with a pretty high accuracy rate.

[JonathanLB]

11 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

the scientific polling says audiences love it, I'm going with the more accurate polling.

Exactly. I don’t give a shit what the multiplier is or who has some anecdotal evidence that their friends from work didn’t like it. The fact is the vast majority of people like or love The Last Jedi and the polling data supports that. There are countless movies with sub-3.0 multipliers too that were incredibly well received and the vast majority are sequels or franchise films with similarly built in fan bases. 

[EmpireCity]

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice.  It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend.  Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.  

 

 

[boomboom234]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

Thanks for just proving my fucking point, that it's a scientific poll with a pretty high accuracy rate.

It it is not as that is not a random sample, the choice to answer is voluntary, the people it is polling, opening night are not representative of the general population, and so on and so forth you can poke so many holes in their methodology 

[the beast]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice.  It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend.  Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.  

 

 

What do you see for saturday number and the weekend numbers? @EmpireCity

[Brainbug]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

Exactly. I don’t give a shit what the multiplier is or who has some anecdotal evidence that their friends from work didn’t like it. The fact is the vast majority of people like or love The Last Jedi and the polling data supports that. There are countless movies with sub-3.0 multipliers too that were incredibly well received and the vast majority are sequels or franchise films with similarly built in fan bases. 

 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

 

Opening Weekend:	$169,189,427
(#1 rank, 4,375 theaters, $38,672 average)
% of Total Gross:	44.4%

 

Jul 15–17	1	$169,189,427	-	4,375	-	$38,672	$169,189,427	1
Jul 22–24	2	$47,422,212	-72.0%	4,375	-	$10,839	$273,539,281	2

 

Just to prove your point.

 

Multipliers arent a holy grail of wisdom when it comes to a movies reception. Other factors like insane fan-frontloading can have big effects on it.

[NoLegMan]

 

Just now, boomboom234 said:

It it is not as that is not a random sample, the choice to answer is voluntary, the people it is polling, opening night are not representative of the general population, and so on and so forth you can poke so many holes in their methodology 

most polling is voluntary.

[boomboom234]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

 

 

 

These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted.  Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time.  

 

Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc...

 

I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss.  Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire.  It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot.  

 

With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning.  Not surprising.  

Are you really going to make me look through that thread again man, you dismiseed every audience ranking I recall mentioning RT, Reddit, the futurist's french website, metacritic, as potential evidence that WOM would be divisive you dismissed them all as brigaded and trolled and said WOM would be fantastic. Do you deny that 

[RyneOh1040]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

 

 

 

These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted.  Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time.  

 

Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc...

 

I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss.  Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire.  It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot.  

 

With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning.  Not surprising.  

i feel like the hyperbole is running in both directions here, though.  i think literally one poster has said that it would make less than 500 and I'm pretty certain they're a newbie.  so, it's an extremist point of view.  And I think when we discuss disappointments don't we have to always speak in perspective?

 

Is a film that's going to clear 650 US and probably 1.5 billion WW a disappointment?  HELL NO.  But the numbers have been underwhelming since OW when it clearly burned off a lot of demand, and has since abandoned a lot of historical patterns.  I think you could certainly say the run has been boring since then and the multiplier is certainly teetering on the edge of meh to disappointing.  So there are aspects of its run that ARE empirically a bit disappointing.

 

Still, I understand the essence of what you're saying and I agree.  But I do think distinction is important here.

Edited December 31, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm sorry if it feels as though I was intentionally misrepresenting what you said but that's really what I remember you saying! I shouldn't have brought this up let's move on.

No big deal, I like a good back and forth with you IronJimbo.  

[babz06]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice.  It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend.  Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.  

 

 

how is saturday looking for both titles?