New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Titanic and Avatar were gigantic not because they broke daily record grosses but because of them having incredible legs. But i think you know that already^^

[EmpireCity]

Just now, RyneOh1040 said:

yeah this makes no sense to me.  i honestly had never even heard of ComScore and i'd love to know more but I'm confused why multiple users here who have posted for years are just being dismissed when they say WOM is mixed, when that's their experience.  i mean, what it take to make you think WOM isn't fantastic?

 

run time shouldn't be the issue it's being made out to be, and Jumanji and this should easily be able to coexist.

It is because we are talking about measurable and reliable data, not feeling and gut reaction.  You are pointing out anecdotal evidence, which is the absolute weakest and most unreliable form of "evidence" there is.  For example, you can't say something might be mixed because your sister's best friends cousin has a boyfriend that didn't like it and neither did his friends.  That isn't evidence.  

 

Run time is absolutely an issue and if you don't believe me go talk to anyone that schedules showtimes at a theater.  It is one of the reasons that theaters jizzed in their pants when they heard that Dunkirk was only 1 hour 40 minutes instead of the standard 2 hours 30 minutes.  See my post above for an example of how it has an effect on scheduling.  

 

This is also a crowded season.  @TwoMisfits did get part of her post right last week when she pointed out that the extra screen shows had started to go to Jumanji.  There is more traffic as far as movies required to be played goes this year compared to the last two years.  Combine that with the longer running time and break out of Jumanji taking away family business and it adds up to less opportunity than the previous two years.  

 

 

[the beast]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

It is because we are talking about measurable and reliable data, not feeling and gut reaction.  You are pointing out anecdotal evidence, which is the absolute weakest and most unreliable form of "evidence" there is.  For example, you can't say something might be mixed because your sister's best friends cousin has a boyfriend that didn't like it and neither did his friends.  That isn't evidence.  

 

Run time is absolutely an issue and if you don't believe me go talk to anyone that schedules showtimes at a theater.  It is one of the reasons that theaters jizzed in their pants when they heard that Dunkirk was only 1 hour 40 minutes instead of the standard 2 hours 30 minutes.  See my post above for an example of how it has an effect on scheduling.  

 

This is also a crowded season.  @TwoMisfits did get part of her post right last week when she pointed out that the extra screen shows had started to go to Jumanji.  There is more traffic as far as movies required to be played goes this year compared to the last two years.  Combine that with the longer running time and break out of Jumanji taking away family business and it adds up to less opportunity than the previous two years.  

 

 

What numbers do you see for Jumanji and TLJ on saturday? @EmpireCity

[JB33]

37 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I really appreciate people like Empire giving us early numbers and taking the time to essentially give us raw data.  And I don't think attacking him (even when he's wrong) is the way to go about this.

 

I ALSO don't think when users (especially regulars) in this forum post an unpopular opinion that they should be shit on.  By anyone.  From anywhere. 

 

Disagreeing is one thing, but the week TLJ came out I, along with MovieMan and a handful of others posted that what WE were seeing in our small sample sizes of friends, colleagues and theaters was a lot of mixed opinions.  And how that might affect the box office.  Some of us were effectively called idiots for daring to think it might not have the legs it historically should have.  And for me, it crossed a line.  I followed the forums at Mojo religiously since I was 14 (I'm 29 now) and that was the most bummed and insulted I had ever been here.  That kind of stuff goes nowhere and just makes this place something it doesn't need to be.

 

When you're wrong, just say you're wrong and move on.  And when you're right don't make someone else feel like shit even if you want to.

I absolutely agree. I genuinely respect @EmpireCity and appreciate his and @The Greatest Rth contributions to this forum. I'm just frustrated by the moving goalposts over the last several days and the lack of respect for those who had a point in the opening week. We caught a ton of flak and now are only catching more because we're not simply appreciating a juggernaut movie.

 

I've said it before: this is a box office forum with some of the smartest box office people around. I don't see why we can't critique and look deeper, instead of just saying "Heyyy this movie is making more than $600M! What a success!". That may be 100% true, but come on now, some of us want to analyze and critique the patterns underneath the surface of the raw numbers. That's what this forum is for. But because people don't like the negative vibe of that, suddenly none of that matters. We're better than that, d i certainly hold folks like EmpireCity to that standard.

Edited December 31, 2017 by JB33

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

It's been an open question over the last couple of years whether or not two 300m+ films would hurt each other in the holiday season (just going by your estimation of Jumanji).

 

I think it's less of a question now, though it isn't entirely settled.  Of course, how much of TLJ's drop off is due to other factors, such as mixed WOM, is still an open question.  And whether or not Disney really cares all that much for that matter (I tend to think Sony is over the moon).

 

Where this might matter in the future is where more and more studios try to cram blockbusters in the holiday timeframe and they all hurt each other in the process.  A May/June crunch on steroids, as it were.

Eh, Daddy's Home+Sisters+Alvin+Joy+The Big Short+Hateful Eight aren't much less than the gross of Jumanji+Pitch Perfect+Showman+Ferdinand. Just more competitors that year with a much more spread the love wealth. Didn't stop TFA from making 300m more than TLJ. 

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

It is because we are talking about measurable and reliable data, not feeling and gut reaction.  You are pointing out anecdotal evidence, which is the absolute weakest and most unreliable form of "evidence" there is.  For example, you can't say something might be mixed because your sister's best friends cousin has a boyfriend that didn't like it and neither did his friends.  That isn't evidence.  

 

Run time is absolutely an issue and if you don't believe me go talk to anyone that schedules showtimes at a theater.  It is one of the reasons that theaters jizzed in their pants when they heard that Dunkirk was only 1 hour 40 minutes instead of the standard 2 hours 30 minutes.  See my post above for an example of how it has an effect on scheduling.  

 

This is also a crowded season.  @TwoMisfits did get part of her post right last week when she pointed out that the extra screen shows had started to go to Jumanji.  There is more traffic as far as movies required to be played goes this year compared to the last two years.  Combine that with the longer running time and break out of Jumanji taking away family business and it adds up to less opportunity than the previous two years.  

 

 

Yes it's anecdotal, for sure.  But we've seen that anecdotal evidence repeated far and wide.  Even something as simple as Twitter opening night was just a blood bath for the most part.  I know you're a man of empirical evidence and I really respect that.  But I just don't know how you can see the numbers the past few days and ignore the fact that WOM might not be what you think.  Or at least allow it to be a part of the discussion.

[RyneOh1040]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I absolutely agree. I genuinely respect @EmpireCity and appreciate his and @The Greatest Rth contributions to this forum. I'm just frustrated by the moving goalposts over the last several days and the lack of respect for those who had a point in the opening week. We caught a ton of flak and now are only catching more because we're not simply appreciating a juggernaut movie.

 

I've said it before: this is a box office forum with some of the smartest box office people around. I don't see why we can't critique and look deeper, instead of just saying "Heyyy this movie is making more than $600M! What a success!". That may be 100% true, but come on now, some of us want to analyze and critique the patterns underneath the surface of the raw numbers. That's what this forum is for. But because people don't like the negative vibe of that, suddenly none of that matters. We're better than that, d i certainly hold folks like EmpireCity to that standard.

fair.

[Brainbug]

Just now, AndyChrono said:

Struggling for a 3x multi during the Christmas season is pretty bad though. Only 12 major releases in December have ever failed to get a 3x. Pitch Perfect 3 is going to get it easily, so that basically leaves TLJ as potentially the 13th. The frontloading excuse does not really fly IMO, since there are actually movies in the same franchise - TFA and RO - that easily cleared a 3x in the same release schedule despite opening huge.

 

 

 

TFA was a cultural event though like Avatar, Titanic, E.T - such movies defy BO logic when they come out. Rogue One opened much softer than both TFA and TLJ. Dont forget that TLJ will outgross RO this very weekend or Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

I am NOT saying that an under 3 multi in December is good, im really not. I just think theres a lot of factors that play a part in TLJ run. One absolutely beeing frontloading, another one beeing mixed WOM (judging from the Internet. Nobody i know in person dislikes TLJ), another one beeing the calendar, another one the runtime like @EmpireCity explained, another one the suprisingly giant run of Jumanji, and others. Its so many factors that i still say TLJ's run remains totally unpredictable going into January. It could fall of a cliff - or have very strong holds. I dont count out either.

[Tower]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Titanic and Avatar were gigantic not because they broke daily record grosses but because of them having incredible legs. But i think you know that already^^

But that's exactly the point, the  disappointing part of TLJ is the legs, not the OW. So the runtime supposedly affected the legs for TLJ but not all the other big long movies that had great legs.

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I mean Age of Ultron is a pretty apt comparison. Also A cinemascore. Not a great reputation among fans.

AOU and TLJ have nice parallels:

- Sequels following a predecessor with record breaking ows.

- Both put in the 2nd biggest ows (AOU also before JW released)

- Drop in legs is similar. AOU's 2.4x is 20% down from 3x+ of TA. TLJ will be down around that (even if a bit more).

- 25-30% drop in dom.

- Reception 'controversy' despite scientific polls saying other-wise. Though MCU's base was not despondent this loudly. Probably cause AOU retained the director and IMO seemed too safe (which to hardcore fans may not be a big offense). Haven't seen TLJ but seems to have the opposite complaint.

 

Just like AIW's anticipation SW9's buzz will also be at fever pitch.

[MrGlass2]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Quite frankly I watched ROTS because it might've been the last Skywalker saga movie.

You already called it the "Skywalker saga" in 2005?

 

Disney's marketing scheme is not going to disguise the fact that Episode IX is yet-another-Star-Wars for the GA, nor that many more sequels will follow (some will even include the surviving characters, bet on it).

[EmpireCity]

41 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I really appreciate people like Empire giving us early numbers and taking the time to essentially give us raw data.  And I don't think attacking him (even when he's wrong) is the way to go about this.

 

I ALSO don't think when users (especially regulars) in this forum post an unpopular opinion that they should be shit on.  By anyone.  From anywhere. 

 

Disagreeing is one thing, but the week TLJ came out I, along with MovieMan and a handful of others posted that what WE were seeing in our small sample sizes of friends, colleagues and theaters was a lot of mixed opinions.  And how that might affect the box office.  Some of us were effectively called idiots for daring to think it might not have the legs it historically should have.  And for me, it crossed a line.  I followed the forums at Mojo religiously since I was 14 (I'm 29 now) and that was the most bummed and insulted I had ever been here.  That kind of stuff goes nowhere and just makes this place something it doesn't need to be.

 

When you're wrong, just say you're wrong and move on.  And when you're right don't make someone else feel like shit even if you want to.

 

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I absolutely agree. I genuinely respect @EmpireCity and appreciate his and @The Greatest Rth contributions to this forum. I'm just frustrated by the moving goalposts over the last several days and the lack of respect for those who had a point in the opening week. We caught a ton of flak and now are only catching more because we're not simply appreciating a juggernaut movie.

 

I've said it before: this is a box office forum with some of the smartest box office people around. I don't see why we can't critique and look deeper, instead of just saying "Heyyy this movie is making more than $600M! What a success!". That may be 100% true, but come on now, some of us want to analyze and critique the patterns underneath the surface of the raw numbers. That's what this forum is for. But because people don't like the negative vibe of that, suddenly none of that matters. We're better than that, d i certainly hold folks like EmpireCity to that standard.

 

We are discussing 2 different things here.  I went off that morning and still do because this is a data based website combined with of course the gut feeling of gambling.  

 

That morning multiple people kept posting over and over and over the percentage of the audience scores every 2 minutes and screaming and pointing as they were rock solid evidence.  This was at the start of a weekend that opened to $220m.  It blows my mind that people who are so interested in the data will do something like that. 

 

There is still no actual evidence that I have seen to prove the terrible or even heavily mixed WOM for the movie.  People are acting as if the percentages day to day are that evidence, but we are in an era where the data for December is still so young that it is incomplete.  The calendar is weird and only happens about once every 12 years.  It has a longer impactful running time.  There is another monster break out crowd pleasing 30 minute shorter family film stealing away business.  There is more traffic in the wide releases.  

 

It's much too early for anyone to declare victory, but the data still almost completely points toward the opposite direction of what the screaming click bait narrative has been.  

 

That is all I am saying with this and hope this helps people understand where exactly I am coming from.  

[NoLegMan]

it would be interesting if TLJ had a really great Saturday.

[MovieMan89]

TLJ's OW was really impressive considering how little the marketing did to really give a lot to get hyped over. A pretty sleepy campaign. They can't do that with IX. 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

it would be interesting if TLJ had a really great Saturday.

so far it has over-performed on both the saturdays. i think after a weaker than expected friday, sat could put in a nice jump. last weekend it was +18%. 

 

15-25% bump gives 22-24 sat.

 

i think it will need 22+ to hit high 50s assuming a 30% sunday drop. 19 + 23 + 16 = 58

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

We are discussing 2 different things here.  I went off that morning and still do because this is a data based website combined with of course the gut feeling of gambling.  

 

That morning multiple people kept posting over and over and over the percentage of the audience scores every 2 minutes and screaming and pointing as they were rock solid evidence.  This was at the start of a weekend that opened to $220m.  It blows my mind that people who are so interested in the data will do something like that. 

 

There is still no actual evidence that I have seen to prove the terrible or even heavily mixed WOM for the movie.  People are acting as if the percentages day to day are that evidence, but we are in an era where the data for December is still so young that it is incomplete.  The calendar is weird and only happens about once every 12 years.  It has a longer impactful running time.  There is another monster break out crowd pleasing 30 minute shorter family film stealing away business.  There is more traffic in the wide releases.  

 

It's much too early for anyone to declare victory, but the data still almost completely points toward the opposite direction of what the screaming click bait narrative has been.  

 

That is all I am saying with this and hope this helps people understand where exactly I am coming from.  

good post.  and you're right, the evidence isn't there yet.  i think the issue i'm and some others are having is that we have been hearing all of these other reasons why the numbers are lower (i.e. Jumanji, run time, etc) but when reception is discussed it's dismissed because the polls show it's not true.  and it's one of those things where for you it is seemingly obvious that that's NOT a contributing factor for others of us it seems like the MAIN contributing factor based on our social experiences (which our anecdotal but nonetheless our experiences).

 

and just because I'm not sure, what metrics do you rely on for gauging audience reception.  Not RT or Cinemascore, but what else is out there to show national polling on this?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLJ's OW was really impressive considering how little the marketing did to really give a lot to get hyped over. A pretty sleepy campaign. They can't do that with IX. 

 

At this point, the pure mention of another SW movie coming out gets people hyped, especially in the US. Id argue you dont even need 2 trailers, one teaser is enough. SW is a brand that markets itself.

 

Episode IX will have a gigantic marketing campaign though, im sure of that.

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

but what else is out there to show national polling on this?

 

Comscore

[junkshop36]

2 hours ago, Hades said:

Lets hope they also come to their senses before the Johnson trilogy begins. 

 

Why?

 

Johnson has a whole blank canvas to work with. All new story with all new characters. No convoluted back story with already established characters that people are so connected to they can’t take any little change that happens. 

 

I can’t wait to see what he does with it. 

[Lordmandeep]

Its rather simple after TFA and RO first two weeks, almost every online indicator for audience reception was more positive then TLJ.

 

 

I know some people Alt right and etc, but Rogue One had a female lead with a Muslim co-star and 2 Asian guys.

 

lol 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Lordmandeep