CoolioD1 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 unless it has some crazy great box office holds i think first man is gonna be near the bottom of the pack like #8 or #9 for picture. chazelle and gosling could both get snubbed. can probably walk away with a sound editing oscar for its trouble. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 btw I saw The Hate U Give yesterday and if it weren't for the fact it's based on a YA novel it would be considered as serious of a contender as BlacKkKlansman is. Powerful stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: unless it has some crazy great box office holds i think first man is gonna be near the bottom of the pack like #8 or #9 for picture. chazelle and gosling could both get snubbed. can probably walk away with a sound editing oscar for its trouble. I'm like 90% positive Chazelle isn't getting nominated. Outside of the top three, I'd say McKay, McQueen, Lee, and Jenkins all have better chances than he does (maybe Coogler too). I want to drop Gosling, but there's nobody to replace him with. I can maybe see John David Washington kicking Gosling out, but he needs to do well at precursors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm like 90% positive Chazelle isn't getting nominated. Outside of the top three, I'd say McKay, McQueen, Lee, and Jenkins all have better chances than he does (maybe Coogler too). I want to drop Gosling, but there's nobody to replace him with. I can maybe see John David Washington kicking Gosling out, but he needs to do well at precursors. what if Cooper, Bale, Mortensen, Malek, THE MULE. kinda feeling it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 (edited) Gosling is currently #3 in my Best Actor lineup behind Cooper and Bale. Maybe #4 behind Mortensen. Gonna need somebody to surprise for him to slip lower than that. Not really feeling Malek (my current #5) as a stronger contender, especially if that movie ends up getting the tepid reception I suspect it will get. Toughest category to predict among the acting ones is Supporting Actor. Not confident in anybody besides Ali and Elliott. I would've said Grant as well but does anyone even know that Can You Ever Forgive Me? comes out this week? Fox Searchlight is doing nothing to promote it (guess they're just pooling all of their resources behind The Favourite). Edited October 15, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: what if Cooper, Bale, Mortensen, Malek, THE MULE. kinda feeling it. Oh shit yeah I forgot about Eastwood. He's my #6 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Eastwood does make sense as someone who surprises on nomination morning, especially if The Mule is both a critical and box office hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 They should just push Michael B. Jordan as lead for Black Panther, then he'd have that nom LOCKED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm like 90% positive Chazelle isn't getting nominated. Outside of the top three, I'd say McKay, McQueen, Lee, and Jenkins all have better chances than he does (maybe Coogler too). I want to drop Gosling, but there's nobody to replace him with. I can maybe see John David Washington kicking Gosling out, but he needs to do well at precursors. kind of like biglow's case when Zero Dark 30 was snubbed for directing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 14 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: i think now i can officially say ad astra will not be in my predictions for the rest of the year. as soon as next year's thread is ready the train starts up again. i still believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Now that I’ve seen it, it’s too bad First Man is a fringe contender. I thought Gosling was great, but yeah, if The Mule is any good, Eastwood is kicking his ass to the curb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 First Man is shaping up to be a LOT like Steve Jobs. Universal release that seemed like a surefire contender and even got solid reviews, but it’ll flounder thanks to weak box office and lack of serious passion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 42 minutes ago, Spagheditary said: First Man is shaping up to be a LOT like Steve Jobs. Universal release that seemed like a surefire contender and even got solid reviews, but it’ll flounder thanks to weak box office and lack of serious passion. Eh, it's looking to be more of a Bridge of Spies (modest performer) than a Steve Jobs (total flop that no one saw). The below-the-line support is gonna be quite strong for it still, which will probably be enough to put it in the lower half (especially with how slim the Best Picture field is looking to be). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 First Man is still a strong contender to reach many noms, including actor, supporting actress, editing, cinematography, sound, score, screenplay... A single opening weekend does not matter that much. Compare it to Steve Jobs is crazy. In only 3 days FM almost outgrossed it DOM! As it's been noted, it should be compared to Bridge of Spies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Another thing to consider is that this year is definitely looking to pale in comparison to last year in terms of strong contenders. Last year saw four of the nine Best Picture nominees score a 90 or higher on Metacritic. Will this year even have three (or two, if The Favourite ends up dropping below the mark by the time it opens)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, filmlover said: Another thing to consider is that this year is definitely looking to pale in comparison to last year in terms of strong contenders. Last year saw four of the nine Best Picture nominees score a 90 or higher on Metacritic. Will this year even have three (or two, if The Favourite ends up dropping below the mark by the time it opens)? A Star Is Born dropped below 90 if that's the third film you're referring to. Widows is at 88 right now (it started at 82), so I could see that getting over 90 in a few weeks once more critics see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Just now, WrathOfHan said: A Star Is Born dropped below 90 if that's the third film you're referring to. Widows is at 88 right now (it started at 82), so I could see that getting over 90 in a few weeks once more critics see it. I was referring to Roma (96) and The Favourite (91), the only BP contenders with scores over the 90 mark (for now, at least). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 minute ago, filmlover said: I was referring to Roma (96) and The Favourite (91), the only BP contenders with scores over the 90 mark (for now, at least). Sorry, misread it. I thought you were saying there were three movies over 90 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I am deeply worried about Roma's oscar glory after I learned that the studio refuse to give up its day-and-date release model, with only 100 theaters are committed to play roma, Roma will have problem to even crack 1m by end of its brief theatrical run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Here's the full list of nominees for the 2018 Gotham Awards, the precursor that's been kicking off each season! Spoiler BEST FEATURE The Favourite Yorgos Lanthimos, director; Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos, producers (Fox Searchlight Pictures) First Reformed Paul Schrader, director; Jack Binder, Greg Clark, Victoria Hill, Gary Hamilton, Deepak Sikka, Christine Vachon, David Hinojosa, Frank Murray, producers (A24) If Beale Street Could Talk Barry Jenkins, director; Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy, Barry Jenkins, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Megan Ellison, producers (Annapurna Pictures) Madeline’s Madeline Josephine Decker, director; Krista Parris, Elizabeth Rao, producers (Oscilloscope Laboratories) The Rider Chloé Zhao, director; Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Mollye Asher, Chloé Zhao, producers (Sony Pictures Classics) BEST DOCUMENTARY Bisbee ‘17 Robert Greene, producer; Douglas Tirola, Susan Bedusa, Bennett Elliott, producers (4th Row Films) Hale County This Morning, This Evening RaMell Ross, director; RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim, producers (The Cinema Guild) Minding the Gap Bing Liu, director; Diane Quon, Bing Liu, producers (Hulu & Magnolia Pictures) Shirkers Sandi Tan, director; Sandi Tan, Jessica Levin, Maya Rudolph, producers (Netflix) Won’t You Be My Neighbor? Morgan Neville, director; Morgan Neville, Caryn Capotosto, Nicholas Ma, producers (Focus Features) BINGHAM RAY BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD Ari Aster for Hereditary (A24) Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade (A24) Jennifer Fox for The Tale (HBO) Crystal Moselle for Skate Kitchen (Magnolia Pictures) Boots Riley for Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna Pictures) BEST SCREENPLAY The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (Fox Searchlight Pictures) First Reformed, Paul Schrader (A24) Private Life, Tamara Jenkins (Netflix) Support the Girls, Andrew Bujalski (Magnolia Pictures) Thoroughbreds, Cory Finley (Focus Features) BEST ACTOR Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) Ben Foster in Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight Pictures) Ethan Hawke in First Reformed (A24) Lakeith Stanfield in Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna Pictures) BEST ACTRESS* Glenn Close in The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics) Toni Collette in Hereditary (A24) Kathryn Hahn in Private Life (Netflix) Regina Hall in Support the Girls (Magnolia Pictures) Michelle Pfeiffer in Where is Kyra? (Paladin and Great Point Media) *The 2018 Best Actress nominating committee also voted to award a special Gotham Jury Award to Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz for their ensemble performance in The Favourite. (Fox Searchlight Pictures) BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR Yalitza Aparicio in Roma (Netflix) Elsie Fisher in Eighth Grade (A24) Helena Howard in Madeline’s Madeline (Oscilloscope Laboratories) KiKi Layne in If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna Pictures) Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie in Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – LONG FORM Alias Grace, Sarah Polley, Mary Harron, Noreen Halpern, executive producers (Netflix) Big Mouth, Nick Kroll, Andrew Goldberg, Jennifer Flackett, Mark Levin, creators; Nick Kroll, Andrew Goldberg, Mark Levin & Jennifer Flackett, executive producers (Netflix) The End of the F***ing World, Andy Baker, Murray Ferguson, Petra Fried, Ed MacDonald, Dominic Buchanan, Jonathan Entwistle, executive producers (Netflix) Killing Eve, Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, executive producers (BBC America) Pose, Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Steven Canals, creators; Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Nina Jacobson, Brad Simpson, Alexis Martin Woodall, Sherry Marsh, executive producers (FX Networks) Sharp Objects, Marti Noxon, creator; Marti Noxon, Jason Blum, Gillian Flynn, Amy Adams, Jean-Marc Vallée, Nathan Ross, Gregg Fienberg, Charles Layton, Marci Wiseman, Jessica Rhoades, executive producers (HBO) BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – SHORT FORM 195 Lewis, Chanelle Aponte Pearson and Rae Leone Allen, creators Cleaner Daze, Tess Sweet and Daniel Gambelin, creators Distance, Alex Dobrenko, creator The F Word, Nicole Opper, creator She’s the Ticket, Nadia Hallgren, creator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
