WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Green Book just got punched with two things against it: 1. The box office is very light, and the film won’t even hit 25M before Oscar noms are out 2. The movie is super inaccurate according to Don Shirley’s family Obviously weak box office and historical inaccuracies don’t stop movies all the time, but this doesn’t feel like a safe nominee anymore. Honestly, everything that isn’t A Star Is Born, Vice, The Favourite, or Roma is vulnerable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 (edited) Green Book definitely seems like a snub, apart from acting noms. The film's getting weaker and weaker reviews, it's box office is looking weak, and Don Shirley's family is already calling out the movie and its inaccuracies and racism. EDIT: Guess Han already wrote what I said. I guess something I'll add is that Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are also movies that tackle race and are more commercially and critically successful. Also shows the new voters are really changing things around. That's a good thing. Edited November 22, 2018 by CoolEric258 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: Green Book definitely seems like a snub, apart from acting noms. The film's getting weaker and weaker reviews, it's box office is looking weak, and Don Shirley's family is already calling out the movie and its inaccuracies and racism. EDIT: Guess Han already wrote what I said. I guess something I'll add is that Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are also movies that tackle race and are more commercially and critically successful. Also shows the new voters are really changing things around. That's a good thing. Hell, Beale Street may outgross Green Book. Universal kind of fucked this one up big time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Of course on the bright side, it only makes the path for a Poppins BP nom clearer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Yeah, Green Book feels like it's dying before our eyes. From Movie Hero to Movie Zero within just two months. Won't be surprised if it's shut out completely at this point (which frees the Actor categories up even more than they already are). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, filmlover said: Yeah, Green Book feels like it's dying before our eyes. From Movie Hero to Movie Zero within just two months. Won't be surprised if it's shut out completely at this point (which frees the Actor categories up even more than they already are). Ehh, I can see Ali finding his way in. From what I've seen, even people critical of the movie acknowledge him as a standout. And again, ultra-barren category. As for Mortensen...well, I'm not gonna say he's dunzo, but Hawke, Malek, and Gosling can breathe a little easy. Edited November 22, 2018 by CoolEric258 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 50 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: Ehh, I can see Ali finding his way in. From what I've seen, even people critical of the movie acknowledge him as a standout. And again, ultra-barren category. As for Mortensen...well, I'm not gonna say he's dunzo, but Hawke, Malek, and Gosling can breathe a little easy. Between the N word controversy and now these recent events, he's certainly got a lot to overcome now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 A Star is Born Roma If Beale Street Could Talk The Favourite Vice Can You Ever Forgive Me? Black Panther First Man Widows BlacKkKlansman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Alright, my final pre-precursor predictions! Going wild on my takes with this one! Best Picture (9 nominations) BlacKkKlansman Black Panther Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite (In Contention) If Beale Street Could Talk Mary Poppins Returns Roma (In Contention) A Star is Born (In Contention) Vice (In Contention) Alts: First Man, Widows, A Quiet Place, First Reformed Dark Horse: Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace, Mary, Queen of Scots, The Hate U Give, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Dunzo: Green Book, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, The Mule Best Director Ryan Coogler, Black Panther Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Adam McKay, Vice (In Contention) Alts: Barry Jenkins, Spike Lee, Rob Marshall Dark Horse: Paul Schrader, Debra Granik, Marielle Heller Dunzo: Steve McQueen, Damien Chazelle, Peter Farrelly Best Actress Yalitza Aparicio, Roma Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention) Olivia Colman, The Favourite (In Contention) Viola Davis, Widows Lady Gaga, A Star is Born Alts: Glenn Close, Melissa McCarthy Dark Horses: Saoirse Ronan, Kiki Layne, Elsie Fisher, Toni Colette, Nicole Kidman, Rosamund Pike, Amandla Stenberg, Dunzo: Nobody! Best Actor Christian Bale, Vice Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (In Contention) Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Alts: Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe Dark Horse: John David Washington, Ben Foster, Robert Redford Dunzo: Viggo Mortensen, Steve Carell, Clint Eastwood, Lucas Hedges Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams, Vice Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (In Contention) Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians Alts: Marina de Tavira, Claire Foy, Nicole Kidman Dark Horse: Elizabeth Debicki, Natalie Portman, Margot Robbie, Thomas Harcourt McKenzie Dunzo: Linda Cardellini Best Supporting Actor Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott, A Star is Born Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (In Contention) Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Sam Rockwell, Vice (In Contention) Alts: Daniel Kaluuya, Mahershala Ali, Timothee Chalamet Dark Horse: Steve Carell, Jonathan Pryce Dunzo: Russell Crowe Best Adapted Screenplay BlacKkKlansman (In Contention) Black Panther Crazy Rich Asians If Beale Street Could Talk A Star is Born Alts: Mary Poppins Returns, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Dark Horse: Leave No Trace, The Death of Stalin, The Hate U Give Dunzo: First Man, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy Best Original Screenplay Eighth Grade The Favourite (In Contention) First Reformed Roma (In Contention) Vice Alts: A Quiet Place, Green Book Dark Horse: Sorry to Bother You, At Eternity's Gate, Cold War Dunzo: The Mule Best Cinematography Cold War The Favourite If Beale Street Could Talk Roma A Star is Born Alts: First Man, Black Panther Dark Horse: The Rider, At Eternity's Gate, Mary Poppins Returns Dunzo: Widows, Green Book Best Costume Design Black Panther (In Contention) Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite (In Contention) Mary Poppins Returns Mary, Queen of Scots Alts: Fantastic Beasts 2, A Star is Born Dark Horse: Colette, Bohemian Rhapsody Dunzo: Nutcracker and the Four Realms Best Editing Black Panther The Favourite Roma A Star is Born (In Contention) Vice Alts: BlacKkKlansman, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk Dark Horses: Mary Poppins Returns, Mission: Impossible - Fallout Dunzo: Widows, Green Book Best Production Design Black Panther Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite (In Contention) Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention) Roma Alts: First Man, A Star is Born, Mary, Queen of Scots Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs Dunzo: Green Book, Fantastic Beasts 2, Nutcracker Best Original Score BlacKkKlansman Black Panther If Beale Street Could Talk (In Contention) First Man Mary Poppins Returns Alts: Isle of Dogs, Widows, Incredibles 2, Vice Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War, The Sister Brothers Dunzo: Green Book, Fantastic Beasts 2 Best Original Song "All the Stars", Black Panther "Ashes", Deadpool 2 "The Place Where Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention) "Trip a Little Light Fantastic", Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention) "The Shallow", A Star is Born Alts: "Gravity" Free Solo, "I'll Fight" RBG Dark Horses: "Revelation" Boy Erased, "Girl in the Movies" Dumplin Dunzo: Everything else from ASIB Best Sound Editing Black Panther First Man A Quiet Place Roma A Star is Born (In Contention) Alts: Mary Poppins Returns, Bohemian Rhapsody Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War, Mission: Impossible - Fallout Dunzo: Idk Best Sound Mixing Black Panther Mary Poppins Returns A Quiet Place (In Contention) Roma A Star is Born Alts: First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War, Mission: Impossible - Fallout Best Visual Effects Avengers: Infinity War Black Panther Mary Poppins Returns Mission: Impossible - Fallout First Man Alts: Ready Player One, Annihilation, Isle of Dogs Dark Horse: Solo, Aquaman, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Dunzo: Fantastic Beasts 2 Animated Feature Incredibles 2 Isle of Dogs Mirai Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Alts: Early Man Dark Horse: The Grinch, Smallfoot Dunzo: Idk Foreign Feature Roma Count Roma - 4 Wins, 10 Noms Black Panther - 3 Wins, 12 Noms A Star is Born - 3 Wins. 10 Noms Vice - 3 Wins, 6 Noms Mary Poppins Returns - 2 Wins, 10 Noms If Beale Street Could Talk - 1 Win, 5 Noms A Quiet Place - 1 Win, 2 Noms Avengers: Infinity War - 1 Win, 1 Nom Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nom The Favourite - 10 Noms Crazy Rich Asians - 5 Noms BlacKkKlansman - 4 Noms First Man - 3 Noms First Reformed - 2 Noms Deadpool 2 - 1 Nom Incredibles 2 - 1 Nom Eighth Grade - 1 Nom Bohemian Rhapsody - 1 Nom Cold War - 1 Nom Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 1 Nom Mary, Queen of Scots - 1 Nom Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1 Nom Widows - 1 Nom Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1 Nom Mirai - 1 Nom Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1 Nom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant. I highly doubt Ali is winning a second Oscar so soon for a film that's practically imploding (especially when he might end up the film's sole nomination). Grant's performance in CYEFM makes total sense as a winner even if the film gets just 3-4 nominations. His last scene could seal it for a lot of people. Or who knows, maybe Elliott does win this after all. ASIB taking home two acting awards seems like a plausible scenario to begin with. Edited November 22, 2018 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, filmlover said: I highly doubt Ali is winning a second Oscar so soon for a film that's practically imploding (especially when he might end up the film's sole nomination). Grant's performance in CYEFM makes total sense as a winner even if the film gets just 3-4 nominations. His last scene could seal it for a lot of people. Or who knows, maybe Elliott does win this after all. ASIB taking home two acting awards seems like a plausible scenario to begin with. Elliott winning would be super conflicting. On the one hand, it’s Sam Elliott winning an Oscar, but he would probably be the weakest non-Leto winner of the category this decade. It’s a character that doesn’t have much meat to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Elliott winning would be super conflicting. On the one hand, it’s Sam Elliott winning an Oscar, but he would probably be the weakest non-Leto winner of the category this decade. It’s a character that doesn’t have much meat to it. Ali won two years ago for a performance that wasn't traditionally "baity" at all in which he left the movie after the first third. If they like the performance and the actor, they'll go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, filmlover said: Ali won two years ago for a performance that wasn't traditionally "baity" at all in which he left the movie after the first third. If they like the performance and the actor, they'll go for it. Yeah, but Ali’s father figure in Moonlight was more interesting than Elliott’s father figure in ASIB. All Sam Elliott’s character does is tell Bradley Cooper to watch out in most of his scenes and gives a good monologue. He’s just not that interesting of a character! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant. Given how badly Green Book is imploding idek if Ali is getting the nomination. Supporting Actor is completely empty, I’d say Rockwell would be the front runner but he just won. Grant’s movie has no steam. Adam Driver’s performance is to subtle to win. I figure just go with the WTF win and say MBJ wins it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, PANDA said: Given how badly Green Book is imploding idek if Ali is getting the nomination. Supporting Actor is completely empty, I’d say Rockwell would be the front runner but he just won. Grant’s movie has no steam. Adam Driver’s performance is to subtle to win. I figure just go with the WTF win and say MBJ wins it. Kind of at that point as well tbh, and I don't think he's ever been in my predictions (or if he was it was super early on). I can see Carell winning too even though his performance isn't as flashy as Rockwell; the industry loves him. However, I don't think Vice or ASIB can will all three acting categories they're nominated for (and Carell isn't even safe for a nomination) Edited November 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Just now, WrathOfHan said: Kind of at that point as well tbh, and I don't think he's ever been in my predictions (or if he was it was super early on). I can see Carell winning too even though his performance isn't as flashy as Rockwell; the industry loves him. I do think if Carell gets a nom he’s a default front runner to win, im just not sure he’d get a nom over Rockwell, and I’m not sure AMPAS will go dual noms. I’m starting to think this year is AMPAS goes populist. The small BO high-brow stuff just doesn’t seem to be sticking beyond Roma, The Favourite, Vice (which this might actually turn into a hit! and kind of Beale Street. Meanwhile, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther and A Quiet Place are all big hits with great reviews (okay MPR isn’t confirmed yet, but it’s all but looking like it), and not just “great for a blockbuster” type of reviews. Remember in 2016 how AMPAS worked overboard to counter the #OscarsSoWhite controversy? I think the voters might be feeling heat to nominate some populist stuff, and they’ve got a lot of options for them this year (meanwhile few options for ‘Oscar bait’). I also think whether they go populist or not it’ll be the lowest rated awards show because the declining trend isn’t about what they’re nominating. It’s that cable TV is declining, there’s no streaming option and people don’t want to sit through 3 hour awards shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 The consecutive bomb of award-friendly bode well for Roma, a netflix's spanish film thanks to lighter competition I hope to see another non-english language to enter best picture race since Amour! While Oscar past winner did delivered well critically like first man and widows and green book, but they failed at box office. Ironically, all three films are studio film.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Yeah, but Ali’s father figure in Moonlight was more interesting than Elliott’s father figure in ASIB. All Sam Elliott’s character does is tell Bradley Cooper to watch out in most of his scenes and gives a good monologue. He’s just not that interesting of a character! To be fair, he nails every scene he's in and his performance is remarkably lived-in and nuanced despite having relatively little to work with; it feels like there's a whole complex history between him and Cooper's character that we only catch in glimpses. He's not in much of the movie, but his contributions linger; that could be enough to put him over the top for a win if either the film takes off as a Best Picture frontrunner or the industry decides it's time to throw him an underrated career honors Oscar. Edited November 22, 2018 by Webslinger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I still have my same five in Supporting Actor with Jordan winning now instead of Ali. That said, the early rave reviews for Rockwell, Carell, and even Lin Manuel Miranda throw a wrench in that. Once full reviews drop I def might move one of them in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...