Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

the villain from Alita 

 

@CoolioD1 I read the synopsis on Moviespoiler so I clearly mixed it up. I thought Ali played the hand job guy. Big mistake. 

Do you watch all of the movies you see that aren't blockbusters via the plot summaries on The Movie Spoiler?

[The Panda]

@Valonqar Weren’t you one of the people complaining that Moonlight didn’t deserve to win?  And you didn’t see it, or even knew who Mahershala Ali played in it?

Edited January 22, 2019 by The Panda

[Ezen Baklattan]

If Ali wins, it’ll be the second time this decade an actor won an Oscar for his performance in an old fashioned Oscar bait film with some notable detractors while giving an over the top performance as the villain in a big visual effects driven Sci-Fi extravaganza with a female protagonist from an auteur director that got delayed from its initial release of July the year before.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

If Ali wins, it’ll be the second time this decade an actor won an Oscar for his performance in an old fashioned Oscar bait film with some notable detractors while giving an over the top performance as the villain in a big visual effects driven Sci-Fi extravaganza with a female protagonist from an auteur director that got delayed from its initial release of July the year before.

if it mirrors that situation completely it means he'll be better in Alita.

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

If Ali wins, it’ll be the second time this decade an actor won an Oscar for his performance in an old fashioned Oscar bait film with some notable detractors while giving an over the top performance as the villain in a big visual effects driven Sci-Fi extravaganza with a female protagonist from an auteur director that got delayed from its initial release of July the year before.

It also has this decade's other Supporting Actor double winner (Christoph Waltz) in it too. 

[Valonqar]

19 hours ago, filmlover said:

Do you watch all of the movies you see that aren't blockbusters via the plot summaries on The Movie Spoiler?

pretty much. 

 

@Spagspiria No way Ali's more OTT than Waltz in Alita. Waltz is Ham incarnated. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

‘BlacKkKlansman’ Returns to Theaters After Six Oscar Nominations (EXCLUSIVE)

“BlacKkKlansman,” Spike Lee’s crime drama about a black detective who infiltrates the Ku Klux Klan, is heading back to theaters after picking up six Oscar nominations.

The film will be re-released in 168 theaters across the country this weekend. “BlacKkKlansman” will play in over 30 states, including New York, California, and Florida. Academy members will be allowed in showings free of charge with their membership card.

Focus Features initially released “BlacKkKlansman” in theaters in August, where it debuted with $10.8 million — the third-best opening weekend of Lee’s career. It went on to earn $48.5 million at the domestic box office and $40.8 million overseas.

[MovieMan89]

I could see Blackkklansman pulling out a huge upset and winning BP now. The support for ASIB just hasn't been as strong as everyone has expected this awards season and the Cooper director snub pretty much kills any momentum it had left as the frontrunner in the category. I think Roma is fighting too much of an uphill battle being both a Netflix and foreign film to win in the end. Green Book is out with no director nom. So that basically leaves The Favourite and Blackkklansman, and The Favourite just isn't the type of movie I can see taking home the big ones even if it did get a lot of noms. Blackkklansman has the added advantage of being by a director with a high profile Academy snub for BP that people still talk about today.

[Valonqar]

While I would love Lee upset over Cuaron, I know that neither Lee/BKKK upset over Cuaron/Roma is happening. People are bored when winners are known and invent scenarios for upsets that won't happen. It's like all those fantasy scenarios why Ali won't win another including the laughable "does he even want to win for GB?" (yes, of course he does, has he ever spoken against GB? No, of course he hasn't why would he?)

Edited January 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I could see Blackkklansman pulling out a huge upset and winning BP now. The support for ASIB just hasn't been as strong as everyone has expected this awards season and the Cooper director snub pretty much kills any momentum it had left as the frontrunner in the category. I think Roma is fighting too much of an uphill battle being both a Netflix and foreign film to win in the end. Green Book is out with no director nom. So that basically leaves The Favourite and Blackkklansman, and The Favourite just isn't the type of movie I can see taking home the big ones even if it did get a lot of noms. Blackkklansman has the added advantage of being by a director with a high profile Academy snub for BP that people still talk about today.

Based on oscar history, missing either best director nom or screenplay nom could spell an instant dead for wining best picture.

In short, want to win best picture? get that both best director and screenplay nom! 

Which film has nomination in both categories?

1. Roma

2. The favorite

3. Blackkklansman

 

I agree that too, blackkklansman is the winner that voters with different taste would reach the consensus. Too bad , the movie has letf theater, no much oscar bump to the film.   

[MovieMan89]

39 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

While I would love Lee upset over Cuaron, I know that neither Lee/BKKK upset over Cuaron/Roma is happening. People are bored when winners are known and invent scenarios for upsets that won't happen. It's like all those fantasy scenarios why Ali won't win another including the laughable "does he even want to win for GB?" (yes, of course he does, has he ever spoken against GB? No, of course he hasn't why would he?)

Will the Academy really give a film their top prize that would kind of be endorsing streaming in the war against theater going? I have doubts personally. If the theatrical experience dies, how will big budget movies get made and how will Hollywood continue being Hollywood? Netflix taking the most coveted prize in the industry doesn't seem like Hollywood doing Hollywood any favors. Even if we do say the Academy won't care about the Netflix thing, zero foreign films have ever won BP. I have a hard time saying Roma can possibly be considered such a sure thing with both of those factors.

Edited January 24, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Will the Academy really give a film their top prize that would kind of be endorsing streaming in the war against theater going? I have doubts personally. If the theatrical experience dies, how will big budget movies get made and how will Hollywood continue being Hollywood? Netflix taking the most coveted prize in the industry is doesn't seem like Hollywood doing Hollywood any favors. Even if we do say the Academy won't care about the Netflix thing, zero foreign films have ever won BP. I have a hard time saying Roma can possibly be considered such a sure thing with both of those factors.

The industry is changing already. Fox will cease being a fully operating studio soon.

[Eric Duncan]

Netflix has just joined the MPAA. Paramount signed a multi-picture deal with Netflix to create original films. A24 is doing the same with Apple. Disney, WarnerMedia, and NBCU are all developing their own streaming services.

 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the industry has embraced streaming at this point, whether we like it or not.

[Valonqar]

Steaming is the future. Big stars appear in streaming movies now, it's not considered second/third-rate. So Netflix is not a strike against Roma and it it over-performed in nominations. Editing was never a sure thing cause long uninterrupted takes are not editor branch thing.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

While I would love Lee upset over Cuaron, I know that neither Lee/BKKK upset over Cuaron/Roma is happening. People are bored when winners are known and invent scenarios for upsets that won't happen.

People with actual skin in the game seem to agree with you on that one:

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-supporting-actor

 

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Steaming is the future. Big stars appear in streaming movies now, it's not considered second/third-rate.

Would still be surprsing to hear DiCaprio follow up is on Netflix, it is still second rate and will still be has long has they buy stuff that were not good enough for theater and people have some, not even good enough for Netflix ? reflex come up.

[Valonqar]

Oh wait, that turd Bird Box was streamed cause not good enough for theaters? I thought Sandra wanted to branch into streaming. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Would still be surprsing to hear DiCaprio follow up is on Netflix, it is still second rate and will still be has long has they buy stuff that were not good enough for theater and people have some, not even good enough for Netflix ? reflex come up.

scorsese's next movie is for netflix. i guarantee we're a couple years away from Leo in a netflix movie. the big auteur directors despite talking about how important the cinematic experience is still love to work with netflix because they have a lot of money and don't fuck with their movies. and leo exclusively works with big auteur types he's gonna find himself in a netflix movie eventually.

[CoolioD1]

btw the statistics are totally on the side of a Blackkklansman win in terms of nominations. it's the only film that hit every major guild and also got Directing+Acting+Writing+Editing oscar nominations. the problem is that it hasn't actually won shit yet.

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

btw the statistics are totally on the side of a Blackkklansman win in terms of nominations. it's the only film that hit every major guild and also got Directing+Acting+Writing+Editing oscar nominations. the problem is that it hasn't actually won shit yet.

and that's very telling. Unless it starts winning, it's just an also-run, not even a challenger. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

scorsese's next movie is for netflix. i guarantee we're a couple years away from Leo in a netflix movie. the big auteur directors despite talking about how important the cinematic experience is still love to work with netflix because they have a lot of money and don't fuck with their movies. and leo exclusively works with big auteur types he's gonna find himself in a netflix movie eventually.

If Scorsese had DiCaprio for is movie, he could get the big money, the no studio intervention during is shooting and the theater release like he did with the 100m Wolf Of Wall Street.

 

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Oh wait, that turd Bird Box was streamed cause not good enough for theaters? I thought Sandra wanted to branch into streaming. 

Wasn't that a Netflix production ?