Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[aabattery]

23 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

my final predictions. alts in brackets. i wouldn't use these to try and win a mug i have no idea this year. feel like i'm gonna get a lot wrong

 

Picture: Roma (Green Book)

Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Spike Lee)

Actor: Rami Malek (Bradley Cooper)

Actress: Glenn Close (Olivia Colman)

Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali (Richard E. Grant)

Supp. Actress: Regina King (Rachel Weisz)

O. Screenplay: The Favourite (Green Book

A. Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Incredibles 2)

Documentary: Free Solo (RBG)

Foreign Language: Roma (Cold War)

Animated Short: Bao (Late Afternoons)

Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence. (A Night at the Garden)

Live Action Short: Marguerite (Skin)

Cinematography: Roma (Cold War)

Costume Design: The Favourite (Black Panther)

Film Editing: Vice (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Make-Up: Vice (Mary Queen of Scots)

Original Score: Black Panther (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Original Song: Shallow (All the Stars)

Production Design: Black Panther (The Favourite)

Sound Editing: A Quiet Place (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (A Star is Born

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War (First Man)

 

4 for Roma. 2 for The Favourite, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther and Vice. 1 for other movies.

 

 

mug mug MUG MUG MUG

[CoolioD1]

can i be real i've already changed my mind on a couple of those. and foreign language seems to be the one where you forgot to copy me but roma is locked i think, so i really can't be blamed if you lose.

Edited February 22, 2019 by CoolioD1

[SLAM!]

I think if Cold War manages to get Foreign Language Feature, that'll probably be indicative of a Best Picture win for Roma. They might've been like, "if we're giving Roma the Best Picture, then we'd better spread the love." The scenario would at least be palatable.

[Reddroast]

2 hours ago, Slambros said:

I think if Cold War manages to get Foreign Language Feature, that'll probably be indicative of a Best Picture win for Roma. They might've been like, "if we're giving Roma the Best Picture, then we'd better spread the love." The scenario would at least be palatable.

That seems unlikely to me. 

[Morieris]

On 2/20/2019 at 12:39 PM, filmlover said:

A lot of people throughout have declared they loved BlacKkKlansman but nobody seems to want to award it anything. JDW missing a nomination (in favor of Willem Dafoe as the lone nominee for a movie nobody saw) was probably telling.

 

I liked AEG but considering how dismissive voters seemed to be toward it ("Oh that's playing? I'm leaving, I don't care"), how did he get this far. 

[Jake Gittes]

44 minutes ago, Morieris said:

 

I liked AEG but considering how dismissive voters seemed to be toward it ("Oh that's playing? I'm leaving, I don't care"), how did he get this far. 

Given their hard-on for biopic performances they probably just saw that it was one and were like "great, no further questions"

[CoolioD1]

Willem’s good in that movie but he’s miscast. Like... Oscar Isaac’s character is supposed to be older than him!

[aabattery]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

can i be real i've already changed my mind on a couple of those. and foreign language seems to be the one where you forgot to copy me but roma is locked i think, so i really can't be blamed if you lose.

 

Gimme the update so I can enter again like the scum I am.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Morieris said:

 

I liked AEG but considering how dismissive voters seemed to be toward it ("Oh that's playing? I'm leaving, I don't care"), how did he get this far. 

He was playing Vincent van Gogh. Also, Dafoe is a three-time previous nominee whose previous nominations (the most recent of which was just last year, and also as the lone nomination for the film he was representing) were all in Supporting, so he was due for one in Lead I suppose. Now if only he could become a winner.

Edited February 23, 2019 by filmlover

[titanic2187]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Nah, Malek is set in stone. Close is also pretty much a lock as well. Supporting Actress is the only one that's up in the air but is almost certain to be King (Adams lost at SAG to a performance that wasn't even nominated and The Favourite ladies are unlikely despite Weisz winning at BAFTA, although they kinda went nuts for The Favourite in general).

Malek maybe a locked but I feel christian Bale gave a better performance, The only reason why voters shift their vote from bale that I can think of is bale's role was too similar to Gary oldman's last year.

 

Close is not locked, julie Christie in Away from her won GG+ SAG in 2007 but lost to marion cortillard. There is a possibility of Olivia doing the same thing here again. Plus, Tha favourite is a best picture nominees while The wife only have this sole nomination. (Julianne Moore did win with sole nomination but in a weaker year.)   

 

Regina King could lost to Weisz, just like how stallone lost to Mark Rylance, not to mention Weisz is in a best picture nominee. The only advantage King has here is Weisz could split the vote with Emma STone.

 

 

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Malek maybe a locked but I feel christian Bale gave a better performance, The only reason why voters shift their vote from bale that I can think of is bale's role was too similar to Gary oldman's last year.

 

Close is not locked, julie Christie in Away from her won GG+ SAG in 2007 but lost to marion cortillard. There is a possibility of Olivia doing the same thing here again. Plus, Tha favourite is a best picture nominees while The wife only have this sole nomination. (Julianne Moore did win with sole nomination but in a weaker year.)   

 

Regina King could lost to Weisz, just like how stallone lost to Mark Rylance, not to mention Weisz is in a best picture nominee. The only advantage King has here is Weisz could split the vote with Emma STone.

 

 

Posted this in a the Classic Convo thread yesterday but the person in that "brutally honest" Oscar poll said they didn't even like The Wife but is voting for Close anyway because it's about time. That's why she'll win tomorrow, really. Colman might've had a chance had she gone to Supporting.

 

King winning despite missing SAG and BAFTA is exactly the kind of Cinderella moment the Academy loves. Plus, both Stone and Weisz already have Oscars and there's no sentiment that either is due for another. Biggest competition should've been nominated 6 times and never won Amazing Amy but alas.

[Valonqar]

Malek plays an icon that everyone loved and felt was brought to life by his performance and physical transformation. Bale plays a highly hated historical figure from very recent history. he may have given a better performance, but voters very often go for likable over technically superior. and people LOVE LOVE LOVE Freddie. 

 

IMO, the only interesting thing is seeing whether anti-Netflix backlash will pan out in Best Picture or not. Everything else (major categories) is pretty much done: Ali, King, Malek, Close, Cuaron. if backlash was just a small group around Spielberg, Roma has it in the bag even though I'm still holding onto BP's SAG path to upset. 

[titanic2187]

38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Malek plays an icon that everyone loved and felt was brought to life by his performance and physical transformation. Bale plays a highly hated historical figure from very recent history. he may have given a better performance, but voters very often go for likable over technically superior. and people LOVE LOVE LOVE Freddie. 

 

IMO, the only interesting thing is seeing whether anti-Netflix backlash will pan out in Best Picture or not. Everything else (major categories) is pretty much done: Ali, King, Malek, Close, Cuaron. if backlash was just a small group around Spielberg, Roma has it in the bag even though I'm still holding onto BP's SAG path to upset. 

I have my best picture bet now on GB, BP win is too difficult, missing nomination in both directing and screenplay categories spell doom in BP race, the thing just got even worse when none of the actor was nominated any acting categories.

 

If Roma was distributed through a conventional theatrical window, I will definitely place it at #1 but the netflix factor got me hesitated. The non VFX/action film have had a worse and worse time on big screen, I just hope they stop jeopardizing the market. 

 

While For GB, I just feel that in all kind of extremist are ruining the society, perhaps a crowd-pleaser feel good drama with everybody can be a good protagonist is a good choice to heal the society.     

[CoolioD1]

there's already been a bit of shitshow in regards to Roma winning the BAFTA around here. vue cinemas, one of the bigger cinema chains here in the UK have said they'll stop supporting the BAFTAs because of it. wonder if there's gonna be a similar kick-off come monday in the US.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

there's already been a bit of shitshow in regards to Roma winning the BAFTA around here. vue cinemas, one of the bigger cinema chains here in the UK have said they'll stop supporting the BAFTAs because of it. wonder if there's gonna be a similar kick-off come monday in the US.

Unless Green Book wins (which I'm honestly feeling is what's gonna end up happening).

[Cmasterclay]

The anonymous Oscar ballots are a small sample size and they don't matter etc etc etc but there's been times where I saw alot of movement in them and didn't trust my gut and then they kinda in the end predicted that upset - this happened with Spotlight and Moonlight two years in a row with the anonymous ballots, and they gave a clear indication that people like Affleck and Rylance were gonna win in what were considered very close races. ANYWAY this year's ballots aren't making me change any thoughts BUT alot of late breaking love for Colman and Grant in these (Malek and King are nearly consensus fwiw but Bale gets love here and there) and Best Picture feels kind of potentially wild with tons of love for Favourite in particular. I am not picking any upsets in any major categories but idk....feels something weird could happen, like Green Book or The Favourite winning Best Picture or Colman pulling a mega upset if they really go for the Favourite.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

 and they gave a clear indication that people like Affleck and Rylance were gonna win in what were considered very close races. 

lol trust me i distinctly remember this NOT being the case. i'd swear NYT or THR or someone had an article where they talked to twenty voters and like nineteen of them said they were picking Sly. i remember this because that's exactly when i decided to ignore those articles forever.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

lol trust me i distinctly remember this NOT being the case. i'd swear NYT or THR or someone had an article where they talked to twenty voters and like nineteen of them said they were picking Sly. i remember this because that's exactly when i decided to ignore those articles forever.

Huh, I remember differently - the volume used to be alot higher in the past than it is this year, so there used to be more to choose from. I DEFINITELY remember the weird feeling for Moonlight winning though, that was what spurned me to pay attention to them at all. 

 

Either way, this year doesn't have enough to tell us anything. I'm still going Roma in picture.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

feels something weird could happen, like Green Book or The Favourite winning Best Picture or Colman pulling a mega upset if they really go for the Favourite.

How, though? It's gotten no support anywhere. It's more likely to go home empty-handed than pull off a Best Picture surprise.

[SLAM!]

I know that if I were a voter, I'd be more than happy to give Alfonso Cuaron Best Director, and I'd be more than happy to give Roma the Foreign Film award, but Best Picture is where I'd be drawing the line, the reason being Netflix and their film release strategy. But I'm not a voter, so what do I know.

Edited February 23, 2019 by Slambros