Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[Cmasterclay]

My predicts

 

Picture

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born

3. Black Kkklansman

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Vice

8. Black Panther

9. Cold War

Alts in order of likelihood:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Crazy Rich Asians

First Man

A Quiet Place

Mary Poppins Returns

 

Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

3. Spike Lee, Black Kkklansman

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

5. Pawel Pawlikowsi, Cold War (You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take)

Alt: Adam McKay, Vice

 

Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. John David Washington, Black Kkklansman

Alt: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (soooo close to putting him in)

 

Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: Yalitza Apraricio, Roma (though the lady from Cold War also wouldn't stun me here!)

 

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver, Black Kkklansman

4. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Alt: Sam Rockwell, Vice (Though again, wouldn't be stunned by Jordan either)

 

Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Amy Adams, Vice

5. Claire Foy, First Man

Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite

2. Green Book

3. Roma

4. Vice

5. Eighth Grade

Alt: First Reformed or Cold War

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. Black Kklansman

2. A Star is Born

3. Black Panther

4. Crazy Rich Asians

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Film Editing 

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born 

3. Black Kklansman

4. Vice

5. A Quiet Place (feels ripe for an upset)

Alt: The Favourite

 

Cinematography

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. Cold War

4. The Favourite

5. A Star is Born

Alt: Black Kklansman

 

Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Black Panther

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Black Kkklansman

 

Costumes

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Bohemian Rhapsody

5. Roma

Alt: Black Kkklansman or Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Makeup

1. Vice

2. Black Panther

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Border

 

Sound Mixing

1. Black Panther

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

3. A Quiet Place

4. Roma

5. First Man

Alt: Mission Impossible - Fallout

 

Sound Editing

1. Black Panther

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

3. A Quiet Place

4. Roma

5. A Star is Born

Alt: Mission Impossible - Fallout

 

Score

1. First Man

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Black Kkklansman

5. Black Panther

Alt: Isle of Dogs

 

Song

1. A Star is Born

2. Black Panther

3. RGB

4. Mary Poppins

5. Buster Scruggs

Alt: Wreck it Ralph

 

Visual Effects

1. Black Panther

2. Infinity War

3. Ready Player One

4. First Man

5. Mary Poppins

Alt: Solo

 

Foreign

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. Shoplifters

4. Burning

5. Capernaum

Alt: Never Look Away

 

Nom Count of the Best Picture Nominees

Roma: 10

A Star is Born: 10

Black Kklansman: 7 (though it's a close alt in three others)

The Favourite: 9

Green Book: 4

Bohemian Rhapsody: 7

Vice: 6 (close alt in two others)

Black Panther: 10 

Cold War: 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[Ezen Baklattan]

 

Oof.

[Carlangonz]

So I guess bye bye A Star Is Born? Can't see it picking BD at DGA either WGA and SAG is really competitive. 

 

It's all up to Green Book and Roma, I see Blackkklansman playing more like an upset than ASIB.

[Biggestgeekever]

18 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

 

Oof.

So I guess we're actually fucking doing this, huh?

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Carlangonz said:

So I guess bye bye A Star Is Born? Can't see it picking BD at DGA either WGA and SAG is really competitive. 

 

It's all up to Green Book and Roma, I see Blackkklansman playing more like an upset than ASIB.

Remake curse.......

 

And if Roma wasn't in spanish/mixtec, I can see the film win BP hands down, and distributed by Netflix certainly didn't help. I just can't see how the academy have ready to embrace a non-English BP winner. I think they will think Roma already have best foreign language film with them so BP maybe too much. 

 

So the race is now between Green Book, and Blackkkansman. Both being a crowd-pleaser progressive film and not pretentiously.      

[RichWS]

On 1/8/2019 at 4:29 PM, RichWS said:

Jesus, I'm starting to feel the Green Book heat. 

 

GETTIN' HOT IN HERE, LORD.

[Carlangonz]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Remake curse.......

 

And if Roma wasn't in spanish/mixtec, I can see the film win BP hands down, and distributed by Netflix certainly didn't help. I just can't see how the academy have ready to embrace a non-English BP winner. I think they will think Roma already have best foreign language film with them so BP maybe too much. 

 

So the race is now between Green Book, and Blackkkansman. Both being a crowd-pleaser progressive film and not pretentiously.      

I think Roma's issues are on the movie itself; it really isn't a crowdpleaser, it's slow and not really appealing to everyone so couldn't work as the movie that can beat GB, actually I think the whole Netflix thing is the minor problem for it.

 

So, yeah, Blackkklansman is the one to go for, at this point don't think ASIB pick up even if it wins SAG.

[CoolioD1]

Talent won.

[Joel M]

Holy shit! I thought Green Book would end up being an also run that grabs a screenplay or a supp actors win but I guess it has a very real shot. 

 

If the BP race ends up in GB vs Klansman it was all worth it lol. 

[WrathOfHan]

tbh it wouldn’t surprise me if PGA is 0/3 this year. I refuse to believe Green Book is the BP winner. I REFUSE. The academy is probably just going to name check Incredibles. WYBMN could win, but I’m still going with Three Identical Strangers there.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Joel M said:

If the BP race ends up in GB vs Klansman it was all worth it lol. 

Poor Spike Lee. Do the Right Thing vs. Driving Miss Daisy all over again.

 

l o fucking l. Green Book has survived everything so far. It winning here over A Star is Born (when it wasn’t even that big of a crowdpleasing box office hit) is one of the more surprising twists of the season. It was my mom’s favorite movie of last year (and all the old people I know who’ve seen it similarly praise it to the high heavens) so, happy for my mom I guess. 

[filmlover]

Also: if Green Book wins Best Picture, that’ll be the second year in a row Octavia Spencer was involved in a Best Picture winner (she’s one of the producers on Green Book). What unlimited power!

[filmlover]

It’s really bizarre how much of a nonstarter A Star is Born has ended up being this season. It seemed to have everything going for it: big box office hit (in a year where they tried to force that bullshit Popular Movie Oscar into existence and failed), two legit acting contenders, etc. and yet it’s pretty much gone nowhere. Perhaps the fact it’s the umpteenth remake has turned out to be a knock against it?

[The Panda]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Poor Spike Lee. Do the Right Thing vs. Driving Miss Daisy all over again.

 

l o fucking l. Green Book has survived everything so far. It winning here over A Star is Born (when it wasn’t even that big of a crowdpleasing box office hit) is one of the more surprising twists of the season. It was my mom’s favorite movie of last year (and all the old people I know who’ve seen it similarly praise it to the high heavens) so, happy for my mom I guess. 

The cruel irony is Spike Lee makes an actually intelligent racial commentary in an entertaining film (twice), only to be beat by a bunch of white dudes takes on how racism was this kind of bad thing but aren’t we glad everyone’s enlightened and not racist anymore (twice).

 

I really don’t get the Green Book love

[rukaio101]

I mean, in some ways, I kind of feel like you gotta respect the chutzpah of the Academy here. After multiple years of #Oscarssowhite controversies, it takes real guts to look at all the excellent, nuanced and complex movies dealing with race by black filmmakers released this year and go 'Hey, how about we award the one directed by a white guy, written by three white guys and featuring a subplot where Viggo Mortensen teaches famed historical black icon, Doc Shirley, how to be black.' 

 

Ah well, here's hoping it'll go the way of Three Billboards on the actual night and pick up a few token wins before losing the actual prize.

Edited January 20, 2019 by rukaio101

[titanic2187]

My Best Picture prediction

1.  A star is born

2. Green Book

3. Black Panther 

4. Bohemian Rhapsody

5. If Beale Street could talk

6. The favourite 

7. Blackkklansman

8. Roma

Yes, Vice will be snubbed. 

 

Best Director

1. Yorgos, The Favourite

2. Peter, Green Book

3. Cauron, Roma

4. Pawel, Cold war, (Yes, you are seeing this right)

5. Spike lee, blackkklansman

Cooper and Mckay will be snubbed.

 

 

[titanic2187]

14 minutes ago, The Panda said:

The cruel irony is Spike Lee makes an actually intelligent racial commentary in an entertaining film (twice), only to be beat by a bunch of white dudes takes on how racism was this kind of bad thing but aren’t we glad everyone’s enlightened and not racist anymore (twice).

 

I really don’t get the Green Book love

Because both films got A+ cinemascore.....that is the advantage of being a feel-good-drama

[filmlover]

I was just looking at what’s next for the Green Book team and Nick Vallelonga’s next project sounds like it’s for those who thought Viggo’s stereotypical Italian-American family from that film needed their own movie.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadline.com/2018/12/green-book-nick-vallelonga-thats-amore-directing-gene-kirkwood-1202524126/amp/

[RichWS]

Do it Academy. I want to see Film Twitter explode over a movie no one but them will remember in six months.

[Eric Duncan]

Can't wait for Valonqar to go all "WHY DID THE ACADEMY GO FOR GREEN BOOK THEY'RE SO OUT OF TOUCH BLACK PANTHER NEEDS TO WIN BECAUSE IT MADE MONEY MYEH MYEH MYEH MYEH MYEH". It's totally not gonna be utterly obnoxious and moronic and irritating.