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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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13 minutes ago, Slambros said:

I know that if I were a voter, I'd be more than happy to give Alfonso Cuaron Best Director, and I'd be more than happy to give Roma the Foreign Film award, but Best Picture is where I'd be drawing the line, the reason being Netflix and their film release strategy. But I'm not a voter, so what do I know.

What is it with the line-drawing? What does it serve? You think Roma is the best of the nominees, vote for it. End of story. Nothing else should matter. 

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11 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

What is it with the line-drawing? What does it serve? You think Roma is the best of the nominees, vote for it. End of story. Nothing else should matter. 

Yes, Yes, YES. It legit pisses me off that some Academy members have this mind-set. So fucking stupid.

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1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

What is it with the line-drawing? What does it serve? You think Roma is the best of the nominees, vote for it. End of story. Nothing else should matter. 

 

It would be for movie-going. If it occurs to the general audience that a Best Picture winner can simply be watched on their computer, they really will shut themselves off from seeing anything other than the five biggest blockbusters in theaters. But if the Best Picture winner is something people can see in theaters, that's more business for the theaters. Best Picture is the singular Oscar that stands the best chance of getting people to go to a theater. I don't want people to see a Best Picture winner anywhere other than a theater, because I believe that a television or personal electronic device could cheapen the experience of watching the film. That's all.

 

And I'd vote for A Star is Born over Roma, anyway.

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On 2/22/2019 at 3:34 PM, Slambros said:

I think if Cold War manages to get Foreign Language Feature, that'll probably be indicative of a Best Picture win for Roma. They might've been like, "if we're giving Roma the Best Picture, then we'd better spread the love." The scenario would at least be palatable.

I have to disagree with stuff like this.

 

The main reason being, the academy isn’t 10 dudes sitting in a room discussing which movies to hand awards to.  It’s a bunch of people anonymously, independently voting.

 

Nobody who like Roma enough to vote for it for BP is going to be like, “It’s my favorite, I want it to win stuff, but let me vote Cold War instead.”

 

Not saying Cold War can’t win FP, but it’ll probably be because there were a large amount of voters who liked it more than Roma.

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Also, what’s wrong with a movie being able to be released on your device?

 

Had Roma had a wide theatrical release, the majority of its viewers still would have streamed it instead of going during its theatrical run.   

 

Netflix allows for more people to give niche movies like Roma a shot, that they wouldn’t have otherwise, with the only cost being their time.  I don’t get why we’re snobs about a movie having to be something that was released in a theater.  Personally, a TV movie is just as much as movie and can be just as good (if not better) than a theatrical one.

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The Netflix controversy won't be only this year. The Academy just have to decide whether they reward them this year or not.

 

If they not make it this year with Roma then next year they'll try with The Irishman. They signed with Spike Lee for his next project and if it comes out well they're going to push the "It's time for Spike to win" narrative (In case it loses this year). Netflix won't stop until it makes it, they're like the Weinstein in the 90s and the Academy knows it, they only have to decide when they'll let them win the game.

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1 hour ago, Slambros said:

 

It would be for movie-going. If it occurs to the general audience that a Best Picture winner can simply be watched on their computer, they really will shut themselves off from seeing anything other than the five biggest blockbusters in theaters. But if the Best Picture winner is something people can see in theaters, that's more business for the theaters.

A Netflix movie merely being nominated for 10 Oscars but not winning the biggest one ain't gonna teach mass amounts of people any lessons about the importance of theatrical moviegoing, and it's not the Academy's job to do that anyway. And quit thinking like "the general audience" is some amorphous mass that's gonna see Roma win Best Picture and be like "well that's it! we're watching nothing in theaters next year other than Avengers 14, Star Wars 20, the live-action Song of the South and Detective Pikachu: The Search for More Money!" That's not how the world works man.  

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It's also not like Roma would have made much money theatrically or gotten a wide enough release to really reach a wider audience than the cinephiles that would have sought it out. I know Netflix hyped up that limited engagement in Atmos venues, but come on: I live in an area that has two Atmos auditoriums and there's not a chance in hell either of them would have booked Roma over recent bombs like Mortal Engines or The Kid Who Would Be King, let alone the much more successful films they've booked for those auditoriums in the last couple months.

 

Personally, I kinda dug the idea of actually getting to see a much-raved-about art film right away in my own living room instead of having to wait until after the New Year and the first couple waves of awards season to see it in a cramped auditorium with a tiny screen and a shoddy sound system - the usual fate of awards flicks with limited commercial appeal 'round these parts.

Edited by Webslinger
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1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

A Netflix movie merely being nominated for 10 Oscars but not winning the biggest one ain't gonna teach mass amounts of people any lessons about the importance of theatrical moviegoing, and it's not the Academy's job to do that anyway. And quit thinking like "the general audience" is some amorphous mass that's gonna see Roma win Best Picture and be like "well that's it! we're watching nothing in theaters next year other than Avengers 14, Star Wars 20, the live-action Song of the South and Detective Pikachu: The Search for More Money!" That's not how the world works man.  

 

I see and agree with your point. The box office has given me a lot of concerns lately, but I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if Roma won. People are seeing A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody a lot, so I have reason to be optimistic. Thanks.

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TV movies - Emmy

Big screen movies - Oscar

 

Roma has its necessary theatrical run to qualify oscar contest, but I want to honour a equally high-quality movie that encourage theater-going experience, and appreciate the charm of big screen, Not encouraging piracy issue that already in out-of-control state that only will be amplified if Netflix strategy really becoming maintainstream. 

 

You really think that Netflix spent this much of money on Roma because Roma is going to make big money for profit? This is their long run strategy to mess up the market, when everybody started to abandon theater chain window but meanwhile can't go for streaming services on their own, Who will they go to? It is Netflix! 

 

Clearly this is their business strategy of grabbing the market share and talent, mirroring Harvey Weinstein.     

 

 

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As an avid supporter of the preservation of the cinematic experience, I have to admit, Roma winning wouldn't sit right with me. Yes it would send a message when the most prestigious award in the industry is going to a streaming only film, anyone is crazy to think it wouldn't. It doesn't matter if most of the GA don't care about it, they will see that it won the big prize in the media and it will bring a ton of attention to streaming only films. They don't need that attention, they're becoming enough of a threat to theater-going all on their own. No thank you. 

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25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As an avid supporter of the preservation of the cinematic experience, I have to admit, Roma winning wouldn't sit right with me. Yes it would send a message when the most prestigious award in the industry is going to a streaming only film, anyone is crazy to think it wouldn't. It doesn't matter if most of the GA don't care about it, they will see that it won the big prize in the media and it will bring a ton of attention to streaming only films. They don't need that attention, they're becoming enough of a threat to theater-going all on their own. No thank you. 

Lord, I feel like whenever somebody says Roma was a streaming only movie there should be an autocorrect thing. It did get a theatrical release, albeit in small chain theaters only (it opened at the local iPic the same day it was available on streaming but I didn't get around to seeing it that way because it was there only a week and there were several other theatrical movies I also had to see over the holidays).

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32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As an avid supporter of the preservation of the cinematic experience, I have to admit, Roma winning wouldn't sit right with me. Yes it would send a message when the most prestigious award in the industry is going to a streaming only film, anyone is crazy to think it wouldn't. It doesn't matter if most of the GA don't care about it, they will see that it won the big prize in the media and it will bring a ton of attention to streaming only films. They don't need that attention, they're becoming enough of a threat to theater-going all on their own. No thank you. 

Once Netflix is big enough in the market and in oscar circuit , you will see they start to back up some second tier movie, just like Harvey did with Chocolat, Cider House Rules, The Reader. And why? Because it will be easier for them to launch Oscar campaign by then.

 

Netflix is wise to push it with Roma and Mudbound, especially the former, as much as I have issue with Netflix's strategy, I was completely wowed by the film and its high artistic merit. And this is their tactic , putting a very much acclaimed and adored film in between them and market, and people will have hard time to "penalize" a film just because of their distributor. For me Roma is just a puppet, for them to usher the industry into their business model.

 

Nothing wrong of putting a film in a platform that make everybody easier, but it is wrong to adapt everyone into your empire and they are not doing it subtly, it is writing on the wall!     

 

 

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Lord, I feel like whenever somebody says Roma was a streaming only movie there should be an autocorrect thing. It did get a theatrical release, albeit in small chain theaters only (it opened at the local iPic the same day it was available on streaming but I didn't get around to seeing it that way because it was there only a week and there were several other theatrical movies I also had to see over the holidays).

Oh please, they didn't even track box office for it. They just made sure they did the bare minimum to pander to the award shows. 

 

Look, the streaming takeover is likely inevitable, so I'm not saying Roma winning is going to be what somehow shifts the tide in that battle. I'm just not in favor of doing anything that gives it a push to speed the process up.  If theater going is dying, here's to a very long and drawn out death. 

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My final picks are

BP: Roma

Dir: Cuaron

Actress: Close

Actor: Malek

S Actress: King

S Actor: Ali

AS: Klansman

OS: Favourite

Cin: Roma

CD: Panther

PD: Panther

Editing: BoHo

Makeup: Vice

Score: Beale Street

Song: Shallow

SE: A Quiet Place

SM: BoHo

VFX: Infinity War

Ani: Spider-Verse

Doc: Free Solo

Foreign: Roma

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