Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Fancyarcher]

21 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

TPH performed exceptionally. But, yes, three years the sour aftertaste definitely had an impact on AotC OW DOM. That and AotC wasn't very well well liked by audiences or critics.

TPM was actually well-received upon original release, everyone went to see it several times due to hype. It wasn't until a few years after release that we started acknowledging that maybe it wasn't so great. 

[WrathOfHan]

looooool TLJ is out of the top 5  

Goddamn @ Paddington's PTA. It looks even shittier right next to Proud Mary's.

Pretty meh hold for Molly's Game. It's going to get dropped from a lot of theaters next week.

That's honestly a great PTA for Phantom Thread. 3B had a 20.8k PTA in 10 fewer theaters in its second weekend. Given the barren market over the next 3 weeks, it should be able to hit 20-30M.

I'm curious how much CMBYN's stagnated release will affect its gross next weekend. If it was a non-Oscar player, the PTA would be guaranteed to be sub-1.5k or something like that.

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Alli said:

Surprised by how low Proud Mary is. I thought it could break out. I guess its a bad movie and they dumped it

Proud Mary when you look at it was barely higher than Sleepless last year. They really dropped the ball on marketing for this one, I really thought that it could break out as well after seeing the first teaser.

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

looooool TLJ is out of the top 5  

Goddamn @ Paddington's PTA. It looks even shittier right next to Proud Mary's.

Pretty meh hold for Molly's Game. It's going to get dropped from a lot of theaters next week.

That's honestly a great PTA for Phantom Thread. 3B had a 20.8k PTA in 10 fewer theaters in its second weekend. Given the barren market over the next 3 weeks, it should be able to hit 20-30M.

I'm curious how much CMBYN's stagnated release will affect its gross next weekend. If it was a non-Oscar player, the PTA would be guaranteed to be sub-1.5k or something like that.

The only PTA I care about next week 

[WrathOfHan]

Top 12 predictions for next week:

 

Jumanji: 17.6M

The Post: 13M

The Greatest Showman: 8.5M

12 Strong: 8M 

Paddington 2: 7M

Star Wars: 5.8M

Hostiles: 5.5M

Insidious: 5.4M

The Commuter: 4.5M

Proud Mary: 4M
Phantom Thread: 3.8M

Den of Thieves: 3.6M

 

Den of Thieves is going to flop on the level of Snowman/Suburbicon/TYFYS. Long runtime+small ad push+shit film=flop

Hostiles won't exactly have a shining PTA (this prediction has it around $1,800), but the large ad push will probably generate enough interest. Wouldn't be surprised at all if it was with DOT tho

I might be highballing Phantom Thread a little bit, but I want it above Den of Thieves   

[babz06]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

looooool TLJ is out of the top 5  

Goddamn @ Paddington's PTA. It looks even shittier right next to Proud Mary's.

Pretty meh hold for Molly's Game. It's going to get dropped from a lot of theaters next week.

That's honestly a great PTA for Phantom Thread. 3B had a 20.8k PTA in 10 fewer theaters in its second weekend. Given the barren market over the next 3 weeks, it should be able to hit 20-30M.

I'm curious how much CMBYN's stagnated release will affect its gross next weekend. If it was a non-Oscar player, the PTA would be guaranteed to be sub-1.5k or something like that.

I hate the stagnated release that SPC has been doing with CMBN. I feel like they waited too long and buzz has already peaked for it. Molly’s Game was probably affected by The Post, they likely share the same audiences. STX should have kept the November release date.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, babz06 said:

I hate the stagnated release that SPC has been doing with CMBN. I feel like they waited too long and buzz has already peaked for it. Molly’s Game was probably affected by The Post, they likely share the same audiences. STX should have kept the November release date.

Agreed on both parts. In fact, Molly's 4:30 show got scrapped for an extra Post at my theater today  

[DAJK]

Commuter help up surprisingly well throughout the weekend than I thought it would based on seemingly poor WOM. Wouldn't be surprised if this movie gets near 40M total by the end of its run, considering it's got 3 upcoming dead weeks to make money 

[Brainbug]

The Last Jedi is now the highest-grossing film of 2017 WW as well as Number 10 all-time WW.

 

1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$1,264.9	$591.5	46.8%	$673.4	53.2%
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$1,263.5	$504.0	39.9%	$759.5	60.1%
3	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$1,236.0	$226.0	18.3%	$1,010.0	81.7%
4	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$1,034.8	$264.6	25.6%	$770.2	74.4%
5	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$880.2	$334.2	38.0%	$546.0	62.0%

[The Futurist]

What a soozing thought, everyone at BOT, even our youngest members

 

will be able to see a Jumanji movie with their kids and some with their grand ones.

[Krissykins]

I feel bad about Proud Mary, although it’s PTA was best among the new films I suppose.

 

Solid but unremarkable for Communter. Dreadful for Paddington 2. 

 

Great for The Post and Jumanji. Ok for Insidious 4. 

 

I, Tonya has also managed to keep really solid PTA’s since it opened. If it gets some nominations it could end with a decent total.

 

Molly’s Game is suffering at just $20m. Social Network it ain’t. 

[WrathOfHan]

I could see CMBYN getting into 1,200-1,500 theaters on February 2 a week after Oscar nominations similar to Lion. Next weekend's PTA might not be big enough to warrant a major expansion on the 26th directly after nominations are announced, but theaters will be able to get rid of Hostiles and Thieves the following weekend and will only have Winchester releasing. Plus, holdovers like TLJ/Insidious/Proud Mary/Commuter will be ready to be dropped. A 12plex's lineup could go like this:

 

Winchester

Maze Runner

CMBYN

The Shape of Water

Phantom Thread

I, Tonya

The Post

Jumanji
The Greatest Showman

Darkest Hour

12 Strong/Lady Bird

Paddington/Three Billboards

 

 

I can even see stuff like The Disaster Artist getting a re-expansion into theaters it never hit (cough LIKE MINE)

Edited January 14, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[IronJimbo]

54 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

A movie can be very good/critically acclaimed and still underperform since the GA doesnt agree with critics sometimes. See Paddington 2: One of the best reviews-movies of all time basically tanking in North America. At the same time you can have mediocre/shitty films performing really well (Transformers 2, Suicide Squad, TPM, Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, Minions to name a few.

The fans hated them too!

You don't become the highest grossing film of all time in the known universe changing course of cinema as we know it.. without being a decent movie. For mediocre films go look towards JJ's/Rian's collection.

[WrathOfHan]

We should bring up how well The Shape of Water has been holding over the past couple of weeks. Its PTA this weekend was REALLY good despite losing 10% of theaters:

 

Jan 5–7	11	$3,139,084	-11.1%	804	+48	$3,904	$21,692,548	6
Jan 12–14	15	$2,700,000 (Estimate)	-14.0%	723	-81	$3,734	$26,421,892 (Estimate)	7

 

 

Fox has a strong enough case to push it into 2k theaters on the 26th IMO

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The fans hated them too!

You don't become the highest grossing film of all time in the known universe changing course of cinema as we know it.. without being a decent movie. For mediocre films go look towards JJ's/Rian's collection.

 

Im a fan. I love it . And you dont get to 936M and 600M+ DOM if a majority of fans/the GA hate a movie. Once again: Just because YOU dont like something doesnt mean the majority of other moviegoers agree with your (terrible) taste

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

We should bring up how well The Shape of Water has been holding over the past couple of weeks. Its PTA this weekend was REALLY good despite losing 10% of theaters:

 

Jan 5–7	11	$3,139,084	-11.1%	804	+48	$3,904	$21,692,548	6
Jan 12–14	15	$2,700,000 (Estimate)	-14.0%	723	-81	$3,734	$26,421,892 (Estimate)	7

 

 

Fox has a strong enough case to push it into 2k theaters on the 26th IMO

fox searchlight is now focusing their push for three billboard 1st as 3B increases massively starting last weekend.

 

And, the shape of water would likely receive the most nomination for 90th oscar, double-digit i suppose, it will be better for them to expand by the weekend when oscar's list revealed. With film being more GA-friendly, it could do more than 70m total 

[weresweresweres]

After 26 days Wonder Woman had 325 mln and summer weekdays, after 26 days Jumanji has 283 mln, I have no idea why you think that Jumanji may do 400 mln.

[filmlover]

27 minutes ago, babz06 said:

I hate the stagnated release that SPC has been doing with CMBN. I feel like they waited too long and buzz has already peaked for it. Molly’s Game was probably affected by The Post, they likely share the same audiences. STX should have kept the November release date.

With regards to CMBYN, acclaim or not, it's still an indie drama about a teen boy's sexual awakening. How do you sell that to a wider audience if you don't have the Oscar nominations to back it up? They've been taking the same approach as A24 did with Room two years ago, it almost certainly would've gotten lost had they tried expanding it wider much earlier.

 

As for Molly's Game, I think it's done about as well as it was going to. Not pulling either a Miss Sloane or a Steve Jobs already makes it something of a win.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

fox searchlight is now focusing their push for three billboard 1st as 3B increases massively starting last weekend.

 

And, the shape of water would likely receive the most nomination for 90th oscar, double-digit i suppose, it will be better for them to expand by the weekend when oscar's list revealed. With film being more GA-friendly, it could do more than 70m total 

I see Shape getting a minimum of 12 Oscar nominations. While unlikely, it could potentially receive as many as 15.

 

Picture

Director

Screenplay

Editing

Score

Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Costume

Make Up

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Visual Effects

Production Design

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

fox searchlight is now focusing their push for three billboard 1st as 3B increases massively starting last weekend.

 

And, the shape of water would likely receive the most nomination for 90th oscar, double-digit i suppose, it will be better for them to expand by the weekend when oscar's list revealed. With film being more GA-friendly, it could do more than 70m total 

I don't think they can expand into many theaters next weekend because of the three wide releases and holdovers. Given 3B already got a significant release last month, a lot of re-expansions for that will probably have reduced showtimes (same with Lady Bird).