Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[filmlover]

Just now, MaxAggressor said:

The Commuter increases 21.78% from early estimates 

 

 

Not surprised. My showing had a decent-sized crowd for a Sunday afternoon yesterday.

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

in fact, the PTA actually goes up for 3B, truly amazing, i thought this movie would have hard time to pass $35m even with oscar nomination coming, but all changed within a week. With marketing/trailer + reception by GA seems good, fox searchlight should try to 2k theater for this one, they never had 2k release for oscar BP since the decedents in 2011 

10x this weekend would be like 25.  maybe 20-30 million more domestic?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=foxsearchlight.htm

 

with Shape of Water in the running too!

[a2k]

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/22	4	$8,805,843		3,006	$2,929	$13,404,574	1
2017/12/29	4	$15,520,732	+76%	3,316	$4,681	$49,036,718	2
2018/01/05	4	$13,770,951	-11%	3,342	$4,121	$76,875,323	3
2018/01/12	4	$12,500,000	-9%	2,938	$4,255	$95,253,868	4

 

+76%, -11%, -9% .... next weekend it could drop off a cliff and fall 20%.

[MaxAggressor]

 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

10x this weekend would be like 25.  maybe 20-30 million more domestic?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=foxsearchlight.htm

 

with Shape of Water in the running too!

3 Billboards needs to get those extra categories.  I have it nominated for 5.  Editing, picture, director, actress, s. actor and screenplay and then winning two.

what else can it get nominated for?

I have The Shape of Water with 14, but it could bust. 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

The Commuter increases 21.78% from early estimates 

 

 

Isn't that the initial estimate have always been $13.45m? how that 21% increase come from 13.4 to 13.7?

[filmlover]

Sunday always behaves as a second Saturday when it's a four-day weekend. The increases are hardly surprising.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/22	4	$8,805,843		3,006	$2,929	$13,404,574	1
2017/12/29	4	$15,520,732	+76%	3,316	$4,681	$49,036,718	2
2018/01/05	4	$13,770,951	-11%	3,342	$4,121	$76,875,323	3
2018/01/12	4	$12,500,000	-9%	2,938	$4,255	$95,253,868	4

 

+76%, -11%, -9% .... next weekend it could drop off a cliff and fall 20%.

 

SO TELL ME DO YOU WANNA GO

WHERE IT'S COVERED IN ALL THE COLORED LIGHTS

WHERE THE RUNAWAYS ARE RUNNING THE NIGHT

IMPOSSIBLE COMES TRUE, IT'S TAKING OVER YOU

OH, THIS IS THE GREATEST SHOW

WE LIGHT IT UP WE WON'T COME DOWN

AND THE SUN CAN'T STOP US NOW

WATCHING IT COME TRUE

IT'S TAKING OVER YOU

OH, THIS IS THE GREATEST SHOW

Edited January 15, 2018 by That One Guy

[MaxAggressor]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Isn't that the initial estimate have always been $13.45m? how that 21% increase come from 13.4 to 13.7?

Yikes. I just realized I was looking at the 3 day weekend chart from pro.boxoffice. Apologies for the misleading post and the subsequent ones.  

[Blaze Heatnix]

I can't wait to see The Commuter.

 

 

The director already confirmed another movie with Liam Neeson very soon. It's the Collet Serra universe, folks!

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/22	4	$8,805,843		3,006	$2,929	$13,404,574	1
2017/12/29	4	$15,520,732	+76%	3,316	$4,681	$49,036,718	2
2018/01/05	4	$13,770,951	-11%	3,342	$4,121	$76,875,323	3
2018/01/12	4	$12,500,000	-9%	2,938	$4,255	$95,253,868	4

 

+76%, -11%, -9% .... next weekend it could drop off a cliff and fall 20%.

I looked and Sundays will be terrible next week.  10% avg over Friday seems best.  20% max.  If one suspects Fridays will suck, make the Sundays up 10% on average typiccal Fridays first, then deflate the Friday once Sunday and Saturday are finished.  Showman could do 2.5 + 3.5 + 3.0 next weekend.  The 28% drop will look steep, but I just dont see Sundays blw

[That One Girl]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

I can't wait to see The Commuter.

 

 

The director already confirmed another movie with Liam Neeson very soon. It's the Collet Serra universe, folks!

 

It's so good for a January action thriller.  Shit was tense as fuck.  Collet-Serra does a great job at making you never forget you're watching a movie, but always making you think what's happening on the screen is real and not just a movie (even when it does get somewhat ridiculous).  I held my breath multiple times during the movie.  We need more thrillers like his.

[MaxAggressor]

 

[La Binoche]

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Jumanji should attract over 500 people per location next weekend which would give $4,465 min PTA. 

The Post did 767 this weekend including previews.  Getting 500 people per location next weekend too will get it close to 13 million.

 

A good question for next week could be this...

12 Strong vs Hostiles vs Forever My Girl vs the likely 500 avg of The Post and Jumanji.

Will these new movies max out with the other top films next week and thereby post Opening Weekends of possibly 15, 15, and 3? 

Or is 10 million + looking like a more friendly occupancy selling just above (or at the cusps) of The Commuter and Showman, Insidious, and TLJ with cumulation domestic TC PTA comparisons.

 

What is the best conclusion that can be drawn now?  lol.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those were just dollar theaters.

Then the question should be whether The Last Jedi will have a run in dollar theaters, or, if it does, whether it'll be anywhere near as successful as Rogue One was. From what I can tell by week-on-week drops and weekly theater counts, some movies either don't do well in dollar theaters or don't even get runs in them at all: The Force Awakens never increased week-on-week either in gross or in theater count in the latter parts of its run, and nor did Homecoming, Beauty and the Beast, etc etc.

[That One Girl]

Sony is winning 2018

 

1	Sony / Columbia	27.3%	$84.6	5	0
2	Buena Vista	22.2%	$68.8	3	0

[Brainbug]

Can we talk about how much of a success Insidious is? Its made like 40M profit already lol.

 

10M Budget.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$50,849,140	53.5%
+ Foreign:	$44,200,000	46.5%
= Worldwide:	$95,049,140

Edited January 15, 2018 by Brainbug

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting with the updated estimates:

 

The Post:

Remainder of this week: 4.4M (32.3M Total)

Jan 19: 11.6M (5.2M weekdays, 49.1M Total)

Jan 26: 10.5M (4.3M weekdays, 63.9M Total)

Feb 2: 7.8M (2.7M weekdays, 74.4M Total)

Feb 9: 5.2M (2.3M weekdays, 81.9M Total)

Feb 16: 4.9M (2.7M weekdays, 89.5M Total)

Feb 23: 3.5M (1.5M weekdays, 94.5M Total)

Mar 2: 3.2M (1.2M weekdays, 98.9M Total)

Mar 9: 2.3M (700k weekdays, 101.9M Total)

Final Total: 104M

 

The Commuter:

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (18.7M Total)

Jan 19: 5.5M (2M weekdays, 26.4M Total)

Jan 26: 3.2M (1.2M weekdays, 30.8M Total)

Feb 2: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 32.7M Total)

Final Total: 35M (2.13x from 4 day/2.55x from 3 day)

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Sony is winning 2018

 

1	Sony / Columbia	27.3%	$84.6	5	0
2	Buena Vista	22.2%	$68.8	3	0

lol its only two weeks into the new year. 

Seriously, Sony will likely be 5th for the year again. The only films that i could see being big hits for them would be Venom or Spiderman animated film.