BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Using Deadlines numbers it needs a 16% drop on Sunday. Its actually quite likely scenario as the max drop possible I would think be about 20%

 

75.8

67.5

56.7

200m

 

They are using 76.4 Friday in the latest update. Maybe they have some update from their source around it. Makes 200 all the more likely.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I hope Marvel (and I have huge faith they won't) rush out a sequel straight away to Black Panther. I say that with huge confidence that they won't purely because they will have so many up and running sub franchises on the go. I can see a Black Panther sequel being released in May 2021 the earliest. 3 years is plenty of time for appetite for another Black Panther film to hit fever pitch again while during that time Marvel does the Spidey, GOTG and Doctor Strange sequels.

 

Also time for Ryan Coogler to take a well deserved break.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[MCKillswitch123]

Agree that May 2021 is the perfect time to unleash Black Panther 2. 2020 should be GOTG 3, Doctor Strange 2 and maybe a new character/team (Fantastic Four, I'd guess?).

 

Btw, rundown of the MCU's biggest opening weekends:

 

01. The Avengers - 207 million

02. Black Panther - 195-200 million

03. Avengers: Age Of Ultron - 191 million

04. Captain America: Civil War - 179 million

05. Iron Man 3 - 174 million

06. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - 146 million

07. Iron Man 2 - 128 million

08. Thor: Ragnarok - 122 million

09. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 117 million

10. Iron Man - 98 million

 

An almost entirely 100 million openers-only top 10. And the non-100 million opener was a 98 million opener. AND Infinity War will make it an all 100 million top 10 either way. I'm no asskisser of anyone, but what Kevin Feige has accomplished w/this franchise really is masterful.

[a2k]

When was the last time a movie lost Fri and Sat but won the weekend thanks to Sunday, or will Samson be the first?

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Rth Wakanda said:

Saturday night time for a 66

That's crazy!

4th biggest Saturday!

[Deathlife]

This is so much like the first Avengers when the estimates kept going up.

 

I’m very very happy with this, I’m also very pleased to see the alt-right trolls on YouTube and social media collectively lose their minds. 

[filmscholar]

After the 1st trailer in the BP thread, I said I knew Deadpool was finished.  This became an event film especially in Black Culture.  School were doing field trips to take kids to see the film.  This idea that an basically majority Black Cast with a Big Budget can't be done was ridiculous and very short sighted.  Black People have driven pop culture through music, fashion and tons of other aspects for decades.   Movies should be no different but Black Actors historically don't get the same opportunities.  Especially in Big Budget Super Hero films.   "Blade" historically deserves more credit for Marvel expanding it success and eventually releasing "X-Men" 2 years later.  These astronomical numbers prove that Diversity is the future and people want to seem themselves on screen.   

 

I didn't get a "Black Panther" type on the big screen growing up.  I got "Meteorman", "Blank Man", "Spawn" and "Blade" (Saw all 4 in the theater).   It wasn't a perfect ride but I was happy to get what I got because representation is important.   I'm happy this generation is getting this though.   Once Again, Monthly norms are getting shattered.   Happy to see another Monthly record fall.   Very proud of Ryan.  "Fruitvale S." was a very powerful film.  "Creed" fit right into the Rocky Canon perfectly and now he knocks it out the park on his 1st  Mega Blockbuster.   Even if it doesn't get 200 3 Day, over 190 would put it past "Ultron".   So Black Panther will have a bigger opening than "Iron Man", "Cap" and "Thor" Biggest OW's.   So only the "Avengers" Films are seeing it.  Wow.  Marvel's Box office Run has been unreal over the last 10 years.   

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Deathlife said:

This is so much like the first Avengers when the estimates kept going up.

 

I’m very very happy with this, I’m also very pleased to see the alt-right trolls on YouTube and social media collectively lose their minds. 

It also shows how little input and relevancy they have. Movie is smashing box office records and the IMDB and RT audience score are going up to respectable levels. 

[DAR]

The closest comparison I can think of what the MCU is doing is the run Pixar had until Cars 2

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

The closest comparison I can think of what the MCU is doing is the run Pixar had until Cars 2

Considering Cars2 was not far from Ratatouille (at least dom), I wold extend that list to TGD (only to be followed by the biggest animation film ever in Dory)

3	1	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	4,305	$135,060,273	4,305	6/17/16
4	19	The Good Dinosaur	BV	$123,087,120	3,749	$39,155,217	3,749	11/25/15
5	3	Inside Out	BV	$356,461,711	4,158	$90,440,272	3,946	6/19/15
6	6	Monsters University	BV	$268,492,764	4,004	$82,429,469	4,004	6/21/13
7	11	Brave	BV	$237,283,207	4,164	$66,323,594	4,164	6/22/12
8	16	Cars 2	BV	$191,452,396	4,115	$66,135,507	4,115	6/24/11
9	2	Toy Story 3	BV	$415,004,880	4,028	$110,307,189	4,028	6/18/10
10	5	Up	BV	$293,004,164	3,886	$68,108,790	3,766	5/29/09
11	12	WALL-E	BV	$223,808,164	3,992	$63,087,526	3,992	6/27/08
12	14	Ratatouille	BV	$206,445,654	3,940	$47,027,395	3,940	6/29/07
13	10	Cars	BV	$244,082,982	3,988	$60,119,509	3,985	6/9/06
14	7	The Incredibles	BV	$261,441,092	3,933	$70,467,623	3,933	11/5/04
15	4	Finding Nemo	BV	$339,714,978	3,425	$70,251,710	3,374	5/30/03
16	8	Monsters, Inc.	BV	$255,873,250	3,649	$62,577,067	3,237	11/2/01
17	9	Toy Story 2	BV	$245,852,179	3,257	$300,163	1	11/19/99
18	17	A Bug's Life	BV	$162,798,565	2,773	$291,121	1	11/20/98
19	15	Toy Story	BV	$191,796,233	2,574	$29,140,617	2,457	11/22/95

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

The closest comparison I can think of what the MCU is doing is the run Pixar had until Cars 2

That was an insane box office streak - that actually didn't really lose steam until Ratatouille - that gets a little overlooked nowadays because it's easy to not realize just how much those first 7 films adjust to now:

 

1. Finding Nemo - $517m

2. Toy Story 2 - $439m

3. Monsters Inc - $413m

4. Toy Story - $402m

5. The Incredibles - $385m

6. Cars - $342m

7. A Bug's Life - $313

 

And no 3D/PLF in any of those grosses. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

And to think before GOTG people weren't sure if the MCU could thrive outside the core trio of Iron Man, Captain America and Thor. While other franchises are scrambling to either get up and running or escape a natural decline of interest the MCU is already well prepared whenever they have to retire Iron Man, Thor and Cap. 

[MovieMan89]

It's no wonder Disney was so desperate to hang onto Pixar after Cars when the initial deal was up. It would be equivalent to them losing MCU after IW. 

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

And to think before GOTG people weren't sure if the MCU could thrive outside the core trio of Iron Man, Captain America and Thor. While other franchises are scrambling to either get up and running or escape a natural decline of interest the MCU is already well prepared whenever they have to retire Iron Man, Thor and Cap. 

At this point Cap and Iron Man are starting to feel old hat. I think Panther, the Guardians, Spidey, and surprisingly now Thor are far more where it's at with the younger audiences. 

 

They've basically set up Panther, Star Lord, and Spidey as the new core trio now, with Thor carrying over perhaps more renewed relevancy than he ever had as part of the original core trio. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by MovieMan89

[DAR]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's no wonder Disney was so desperate to hang onto Pixar after Cars when the initial deal was up. It would be equivalent to them losing MCU after IW. 

I’m starting to think Bob Iger might be a good executive 

[Harpospoke]

Nice to live in a world where everyone will know who the hell T'Challa is.   F**k yeah!

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That was an insane box office streak - that actually didn't really lose steam until Ratatouille - that gets a little overlooked nowadays because it's easy to not realize just how much those first 7 films adjust to now:

 

1. Finding Nemo - $517m

2. Toy Story 2 - $439m

3. Monsters Inc - $413m

4. Toy Story - $402m

5. The Incredibles - $385m

6. Cars - $342m

7. A Bug's Life - $313

 

And no 3D/PLF in any of those grosses. 

and I think Ratatouille salvaged some dom under-performance with a much powerful OS. The OS of Up, Wall-e, Ratatouille, Cars, Incredibles (released back to back): 442, 218, 414, 309.5, 371.5

 

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Fuck it, I'm gonna call it now before it happens...

 

Black Panther #2 All-time Domestic (unadjusted)

 

Sorry @IronJimbo it seems beloved Avatar is going to trickle to 3rd domestically, it had to happen sometime. 

 

Some of the best multipliers from 4-day Presidents weekend are 3.2-3.4x, with a $230m 4-day at the high end seeming likely, that gives $736-784m, So there's a chance this surpasses Avatar. Given it's WOM is phenomenal, I seriously wouldn't discredit this completely just yet.

1) Domestic is just crazy Americans, world wide is my figure, after all Avatar is the highest grossing film of all time.

2) I very much doubt it will beat Avatar's domesetic

3) This is going to struggle to make 0.5A, just like The Last Jedi

Edited February 18, 2018 by IronJimbo

[Hades]

Captain Marvel would have done 150 mill plus opening if Wonder Woman did not happen

[a2k]

Considering DP did 2.39x the 4-day ow I would use 2.3-2.5x for BP giving 525-575 dom using 230 4-day vs thinking about TLJ, TA, JW, Titanic. Nevermind Avatar.

Edited February 18, 2018 by a2knet