BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Harpospoke]

Ok...this is how you know a movie character is getting into the mainstream.   Check out what happens at 1:56:

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Panther, the Guardians, Spidey, and surprisingly now Thor are far more where it's at with the younger audiences. 

 

They've basically set up Panther, Star Lord, and Spidey as the new core trio now, with Thor carrying over perhaps more renewed relevancy than he ever had as part of the original core trio. 

Well true Thor: Ragnarok was basically a soft reboot for the character while still acknowledging the other two films

[baumer]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Fuck it, I'm gonna call it now before it happens...

 

Black Panther #2 All-time Domestic (unadjusted)

 

Sorry @IronJimbo it seems beloved Avatar is going to trickle to 3rd domestically, it had to happen sometime. 

 

Some of the best multipliers from 4-day Presidents weekend are 3.2-3.4x, with a $230m 4-day at the high end seeming likely, that gives $736-784m, So there's a chance this surpasses Avatar. Given it's WOM is phenomenal, I seriously wouldn't discredit this completely just yet.

 

I'm calling it right now that this is pretty much impossible.  Sorry, but it is a comic book movie with a massive built in audience.  And if you want to use the race stats and say this has more black paying customers than normal, then those films are usually really front loaded as well.  If this gets a 3X, I'd be shocked.  

[Empire]

3 hours ago, Rth Wakanda said:

Saturday night time for a 66

This is a fantastic number! 

[the beast]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I'm calling it right now that this is pretty much impossible.  Sorry, but it is a comic book movie with a massive built in audience.  And if you want to use the race stats and say this has more black paying customers than normal, then those films are usually really front loaded as well.  If this gets a 3X, I'd be shocked.  

3.2-3.4x the 4 day weekend is pretty much impossible. at highest could achieve 2.5x 4 day for around 575m-590m

[Valonqar]

Super happy that I was right about the number to be more likely 66M than 63M. Unprecedented craziness in my theater yesterday. Unprecedented. 

 

This is gonna do 200M 3 days and beat Doctor Strange's entire gross in 4. OK, 4.5 but you get my point. 

 

1B WW is locked, loaded, sealed and delivered.

 

Next milestone is the biggest meltdown since 2009 and 2012 - passing TDK. 

 

And then my BP Over TLJ Club.

 

After that, all bets are off. 

Oh, and AoU is CRUMBLING! 

 

 

[a2k]

Deadpool was 196.6 after it's 2nd Friday / day 8, 220.9 on 2nd Sat / day 9 and 236.9 after the 2nd weekend / day 10.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=deadpool2016.htm

[aabattery]

Signs of a good weekend are when we start with this:

Quote

Note there is a margin of error when shooting from the hip this early. Tonight’s numbers could be much higher by morning. If Black Panther continues on this pace, it’s looking approximately at $65M for Friday (including Thursday), $161M over three and $180M-plus for four. 

And go to this:

Quote

The first set of estimates are in, and they’re showing that Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is headed toward a historic weekend with $200M-$205M over four-days, $175M over three.

then to this:

Quote

Black Panther is now looking at the sixth-best opening of all-time on a three-day-basis with an estimated $185.8M per industry projections Saturday AM and a mind-blowing $213M over four days. 

and ending up with this:

Quote

Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is even more ferocious than ever imagined. Late night estimates (not from Disney) indicate that T’Challa is headed to $194M over three-days after a super Saturday night between $66.8M-$68M which is only 11% down from Friday on the high-end. Also if you back out $25.2M Thursday previews from Friday’s $76.4M, Saturday’s business is still technically +33%.  So that means business for Black Panther wasn’t front-loaded. Four-day figures remain a wild forecast for many analysts: They’re certain that Black Panther is expected to clear $220M, but he could fly as high as $230M. Projections at this minute are averaging around $223M

 

Absolute insanity. And it's got a good shot of going even higher. Good stuff.

[the beast]

Percentage difference between Black Panthers 200M OW and Deadpools 132.4M is 35% and keeping the same percentage through ten days gets Black Panther to 320M through ten days which is ahead of BATB (2017) and keeping that same percentage throughout its run gets it to 490m or could make a run for 500m which is quite amazing

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, the beast said:

Percentage difference between Black Panthers 200M OW and Deadpools 132.4M is 35% and keeping the same percentage through ten days gets Black Panther to 320M through ten days which is ahead of BATB (2017) and keeping that same percentage throughout its run gets it to 490m or could make a run for 500m which is quite amazing

if it gets close to 500M, Disney will push it over cause this is a movie that they want a milestone. They don't need TLJ to pass TA cause there's nothing to gain from PR standpoint but BP passing 500M is going to grab headlines.

But I think it can get there with ease.It's an event.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Valonqar

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, the beast said:

Percentage difference between Black Panthers 200M OW and Deadpools 132.4M is 35% and keeping the same percentage through ten days gets Black Panther to 320M through ten days which is ahead of BATB (2017) and keeping that same percentage throughout its run gets it to 490m or could make a run for 500m which is quite amazing

Bigger the ow the smaller the multi...

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Bigger the ow the smaller the multi...

 

Well, three of the four 200 million dollar opening weekends have a 3X or higher.  

[Jake Gittes]

12 minutes ago, the beast said:

Percentage difference between Black Panthers 200M OW and Deadpools 132.4M is 35% and keeping the same percentage through ten days gets Black Panther to 320M through ten days which is ahead of BATB (2017) and keeping that same percentage throughout its run gets it to 490m or could make a run for 500m which is quite amazing

200m is not 35% bigger than 132m, it's over 50% bigger. 

[the beast]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

200m is not 35% bigger than 132m, it's over 50% bigger. 

sorry for miscalculating. good call on your part

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, three of the four 200 million dollar opening weekends have a 3X or higher.  

And TFA has the biggest multiple for a movie opening over 100m

[the beast]

Using 51.5% which is the actual percentage increase gets it to 550m total and 359m for ten days

Edited February 18, 2018 by the beast

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

And TFA has the biggest multiple for a movie opening over 100m

 

Second biggest.

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, three of the four 200 million dollar opening weekends have a 3X or higher.  

Yes and they opened in different times - TFA holiday, TA and JW summer (and not even same part of summer). So we don't have a precedent for 200M opening in February. Exciting! 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Valonqar

[picores]

I've been out of the forums for a month and find 5 minutes ago that fucking Black Panther is opening over 200m fucking dollars. Mad world. 

[Avatree]

Third biggest, Wonder Woman is behind Shrek 2