BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Taruseth]

11 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

1	Dec. 18–20, 2015	51	$305,556,314	26,686	$11,450	5	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$247,966,675	81.2%
2	Dec. 25–27, 2015	52	$281,194,490	29,869	$9,414	5	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$149,202,860	53.1%
3	Dec. 15–17, 2017	50	$270,627,873	27,119	$9,979	2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$220,009,584	81.3%
4	Jun. 12–14, 2015	24	$267,838,931	29,495	$9,081	1	Jurassic World	$208,806,270	78.0%
5	Dec. 25–27, 2009	52	$259,901,856	29,807	$8,719	4	Avatar	$75,617,183	29.1%

 

Top 5 3-day OWs. 4 of 5 are from Dec. This feb w/e will enter this top 5. 

Based on the last estimates from Deadline it would barely miss. With something like $259M

 

But if Black Panther surprises with a don't know higher Friday ( $80M, would be funny, but I doubt that. Hopefully they didn't overestimated it, but on the other hand Disney seems to do that less than other studios) than estimates initially showed or amazing Saturday and Sunday holds. It would join. Pretty impressive.

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

People had BETTER not be disappointed if it "only" pulls 187M for the 3-day. My Goddamn goodness, I was predicting 140-150, for Christ's sake   Insane. The 6th biggest 3-day opening in history seems a lock at this point, as there's virtually no shot of it going under Civil War (even w/the same FSS drops). For a Black Panther solo movie, that is utterly phenomenal.

 

Anecdotal evidence, but in my nearby Spanish theater, the (local) 9:10PM showing only had seats avaliable in the fourth row. And the line was so massive that, by the time we got to buy tickets, the movie was already 10 minutes in. We watched The Shape Of Water instead.... and that showing was close to packed as well, most likely because of the BP spillover. Granted, Guillermo Del Toro is probably a draw in Spain as well, especially w/Oscar contendership, but still. Very good movie, btw.

 

Peter Rabbit and 50 Shades could potentially pull in 100M grosses w/those 4-day numbers. Rabbit is outpacing Gnomeo & Juliet at this same point (never forget them 99M dollahs), and w/Sony at the helm, no chance they wouldn't fudge the 100 gross if it got that close. And Freed's 3-day weekend drop is looking superior to that of Darker's (granted, Darker had a bigger opening, but Panther's OW evens it out), so w/similar, same or better legs as FSD from this point on, Freed gets to 100. I'd start to worry now, @MovieMan89

 

Excellent drops for Jumanji, TGS and, of all things, 15:17. The Post alright. The Death Cure terrible.

 

Early Man and Samson   Disastrous starts for both of them. Not that it surprises anyone.

Rather than rewrite this whole post myself, I'll just say 100% agree...I knew BP would be huge, but I wasn't sure it could be this huge all on OW...so here's hoping the legs I also originally expected play out and we see an enormous ending DOM BO number for this movie:)...

 

And for the others, it's obvious many folks delayed Valentine's weekend and/or got shut out of Black Panther...it's good for so many holdovers (although not the new openers:)...

[That One Girl]

Best part about my crowd yesterday was that one guy who kept mimicking Cruise's run throughout the entire Mission Impossible trailer

Edited February 17, 2018 by That One Guy

[filmlover]

Just now, That One Guy said:

Best part about my crowd yesterday was that one guy who kept mimicking Cruise's run throughout the entire trailer

But what about Pratt's funny run in the Jurassic World trailer?

[MCKillswitch123]

So... Black Panther was pretty awesome. Well deserved money.

[ZeeSoh]

Saw this earlier today. A great great movie and different from the recent Marvel movies

 

A few things

 

- it will be a travesty if this movie doesnt win  costume and makeup awards

- score and soundtrack is amazing. Should have a chance in the awards in these categories too

-Every Woman in this movie is a freaking badass. I would seriously love to see a movie with just the wakandan women in it. The dora milaje kicks ass

- I felt they made their point without being too in your face about with it

- And finally holy shit at those numbers!!!

 

Trailers I got

-Tomb Raider (no reactions)

- Death Wish (WTF?)

- Infinity War (lots of hushing)

- Ant Man (people laughed at the jokes)

[Stewart]

Numbers are in:

Clearly they meant "M" not "K" there...

 

[CJohn]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

So... Black Panther was pretty awesome. Well deserved money.

Thrilled to see it in 2nd place at the Portuguese box office Monday morning?

[filmlover]

Samson is gonna become the first movie increase 1,000,000%+ on its second day.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But what about Pratt's funny run in the Jurassic World trailer?

are we sure he was not fast walking?

 

[baumer]

49 minutes ago, the beast said:

Projections:

 

Black Panther:

Feb 16: 202m (60m weekdays, 262m total)

Feb 23: 100m (25m weekdays, 387m total)

Mar 2: 53m (14m weekdays, 454m total)

Mar 9: 31m (8m weekdays, 493m total)

Mar 16: 20m (5m weekdays, 515m total)

Mar 23: 11m (3m weekdays, 529m total)

 

Total: $570m (2.82x 3 day) (2.43x 4 day)

OS opening Weekend: $140m (3.75) = $525m OS Total:

Worldwide OW: $342m (3.2) = $1,095 million

 

---------------------------------------------------------

 

Peter Rabbit: 

Feb 16: 18m (8m weekdays, 57m total)

Feb 23: 11.7m (2.8m weekdays, 71.5m total)

Mar 2: 7m (1.7m weekdays, 80.2m total)

Mar 9: 5m (1m weekdays, 86.2m total)

Mar 16: 3.3m (600k weekdays, 90.1m total)

Mar 23: 1.5m (300k weekdays, 91.9m total)

 

Total: $97.2m (3.9x)

 

 

 

 

With a 25 million dollar Thursday night and this much out front demand for black panther, I don't see how it doesn't fall at least 55% next weekend.

[That One Girl]

Looks like Deadline messed up the placements of the films.  They edited it just now:

 

1..) Samson (PURE), 1,249 theaters  / $76.6M Fri (includes $25.2M in previews) /3-day: $187.6M /4-day: $216M/Wk 1

2..) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,725 theaters  / $4.2M Fri (-26%) /3-day: $17.7M (-29%) /4-day: $23M /Total: $54M/Wk 2

3..) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 3,768 theaters  / $5.7M Fri (-69%)/3-day: $17.75M(-54%)/4-day: $20.2M/Total: $79.4M Wk 2

4..)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,800 theaters (-336) / $1.85M Fri /3-day: $8M (-20%)/4-day: $10.5M /Total:$380.2M/ Wk 9

5..) The 15:17 to Paris (WB), 3042 theaters  / $2.1M Fri (-43%)/3-day: $8.5M(-32%)/4-day: $9.95M/Total: $27.7M/ Wk 2

6..) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,936 theaters (-437) / $1.3m Fri  / 3-day: $5.7M (-11%)/4-day: $7M /Total: $156.4M/Wk 9

7..) Early Man (LG), 2,494 theaters  / $858K Fri /3-day: $3.5M /4-day: $4.8M/Wk 1

8..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 1,892 theaters (-1,031) / $659K Fri /3-day: $2.7M (-56%) /4-day: $3.3M/ Total: $54.8M/Wk 4

9..) The Post  (FOX/DW), 1,050 theaters (-815) / $464K  Fri  /3-day:$1.96M (-46%)/4-day: $2.45M/Total: $77M/Wk 9

10..) Black Panther (DIS), 4,020 theaters  / $642K Fri /3-day: $1.95M /4-day: $2.3M/Wk 1

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Looks like Deadline messed up the placements of the films.  They edited it just now:

 

1..) Samson (PURE), 1,249 theaters  / $76.6M Fri (includes $25.2M in previews) /3-day: $187.6M /4-day: $216M/Wk 1

2..) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,725 theaters  / $4.2M Fri (-26%) /3-day: $17.7M (-29%) /4-day: $23M /Total: $54M/Wk 2

3..) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 3,768 theaters  / $5.7M Fri (-69%)/3-day: $17.75M(-54%)/4-day: $20.2M/Total: $79.4M Wk 2

4..)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,800 theaters (-336) / $1.85M Fri /3-day: $8M (-20%)/4-day: $10.5M /Total:$380.2M/ Wk 9

5..) The 15:17 to Paris (WB), 3042 theaters  / $2.1M Fri (-43%)/3-day: $8.5M(-32%)/4-day: $9.95M/Total: $27.7M/ Wk 2

6..) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,936 theaters (-437) / $1.3m Fri  / 3-day: $5.7M (-11%)/4-day: $7M /Total: $156.4M/Wk 9

7..) Early Man (LG), 2,494 theaters  / $858K Fri /3-day: $3.5M /4-day: $4.8M/Wk 1

8..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 1,892 theaters (-1,031) / $659K Fri /3-day: $2.7M (-56%) /4-day: $3.3M/ Total: $54.8M/Wk 4

9..) The Post  (FOX/DW), 1,050 theaters (-815) / $464K  Fri  /3-day:$1.96M (-46%)/4-day: $2.45M/Total: $77M/Wk 9

10..) Black Panther (DIS), 4,020 theaters  / $642K Fri /3-day: $1.95M /4-day: $2.3M/Wk 1

#FloppyPanther

[WrathOfHan]

Black Panther forecast with Deadline's estimate:

 

Feb 16: 187.6M (61.6M weekdays, 249.2M Total)

Feb 23: 72.6M (29.8M weekdays, 351.6M Total)

Mar 2: 55.6M (20M weekdays, 427.2M Total)

Mar 9: 34.1M (12M weekdays, 463.3M Total)

Mar 16: 22.2M (7.3M weekdays, 492.8M Total)

Mar 23: 12.6M (4.1M weekdays, 509.5M Total)

Mar 30: 7.6M (2.2M weekdays, 519.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.6M (1.6M weekdays, 525.5M Total)

Apr 13: 3M (1M weekdays, 529.5M Total)

Apr 20: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 531.4M Total)

Final Total: 534M (2.85x from 3 day/2.47x from 4 day)

 

lmfao if this actually ends up between Rogue One and TDK

[Lordmandeep]

I find if the audience quiets down and hushes before a trailer they are interested in it...

 

I dont think a great reaction to a trailer always requires laughs and cheering. 

[Valonqar]

Holy shit at that Samson Number! Samson Over BP Club is success! Someone should make Samson Over IW Club now that BP bombed so badly, not even 1M Friday. 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

With a 25 million dollar Thursday night and this much out front demand for black panther, I don't see how it doesn't fall at least 55% next weekend.

I doubt this is very frontloaded, especially with the WOM it has. It'll likely fall less than 20% today from yesterday's entire gross.

[a2k]

SAMSON RT AUD SCORE 75%

BLACK PANTHER AUD SCORE 74%

I hope that settles all the arguments.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Black Panther forecast with Deadline's estimate:

 

Feb 16: 187.6M (61.6M weekdays, 249.2M Total)

Feb 23: 72.6M (29.8M weekdays, 351.6M Total)

Mar 2: 55.6M (20M weekdays, 427.2M Total)

Mar 9: 34.1M (12M weekdays, 463.3M Total)

Mar 16: 22.2M (7.3M weekdays, 492.8M Total)

Mar 23: 12.6M (4.1M weekdays, 509.5M Total)

Mar 30: 7.6M (2.2M weekdays, 519.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.6M (1.6M weekdays, 525.5M Total)

Apr 13: 3M (1M weekdays, 529.5M Total)

Apr 20: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 531.4M Total)

Final Total: 534M (2.85x from 3 day/2.47x from 4 day)

 

lmfao if this actually ends up between Rogue One and TDK

 

 

Why would it drop so less on weekend 2-3? 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt this is very frontloaded, especially with the WOM it has. It'll likely fall less than 20% today from yesterday's entire gross.

Black Panther may not be traditionally front-loaded, but next weekend will not be a delayed Valentine's Weekend and will not be a holiday weekend, so I'd keep 2nd weekend expectations lower and be happily surprised if they could come in higher...

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by TwoMisfits