Easter Weekend Thread: Official Weekend Actuals: RPO $41.8M ($53.7M 4-Day), Acrimony $17.2M, BP $11.5M, ICOI $10.4M, PRU $9.4M, IOD $2.9M, GND3 $2.7M

[Krissykins]

Love Simons Thursday 11% up from last Thursday. 

 

Only film in the top 10 to actually increase from last week. That’s awesome. 

 

Biggest Thursday increase in the top 10 too. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

G.I. Joe 2 did 

 

Friday: $15,321,237
Sat:  $15,497,787 (1.2%)
Sun: $9,682,790

 

FSS:  $40,501,814

Like I said, RPO has been significantly more frontloaded than GI Joe so far. Whether people like its trajectory or not, it's behaving like a fanboy movie. WOM is strong, so legs are not doomed (I'm still expecting a 2.8-2.9x multi from the 3 day).

Edited March 30, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Eric Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

lol @ comparing RPO to GI Joe

Okay, what other PG-13 action film that came out on late March Easter weekend should we compare RPO to?

[HouseOfTheSun]

150-170m Domestic would be my guess for final Domestic. 180-200 from China. 140-150m OS-China. 500m total is quite possible 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

150-170m Domestic would be my guess for final Domestic. 180-200 from China. 140-150m OS-China. 500m total is quite possible 

You expect this to get a 4x from the 3 day?  

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Like I said, RPO has been significantly more frontloaded than GI Joe so far. Whether people like its trajectory or not, it's behaving like a fanboy movie. WOM is strong, so legs are not doomed (I'm still expecting a 2.8-2.9x multi from the 3 day).

Only more front loaded so far as regards previews which have grown in the last 5 years

 

GI Joe had a $8.3m Thur and a $15.3m Friday

 

RPO had a $8.25m  Thur and is if it does $15m then the pace is now about the same

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

You expect this to get a 4x from the 3 day?  

I’m with Jimbo on this one 

[KeepItU25071906]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

GI Joe increased 1.2% on Saturday with a 45.8% increase on Friday and 4.77x preview to OD multi. RPO only had a 3.2x preview to OD multi and is looking at a 25% increase today if that number holds. I highly doubt this is increasing tomorrow.

sorry, but your math is little bit wrong

[Hiccup23]

19 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Love Simons Thursday 11% up from last Thursday. 

 

Only film in the top 10 to actually increase from last week. That’s awesome. 

 

Biggest Thursday increase in the top 10 too. 

Could mean big Friday or it could (probably will) mute the Friday increase 

[MovieMan89]

A 31% preview share of OD is like CBM sequel level frontloading. That's nearly on par with BvS. Maybe just a fluke, but not a good sign of how RPO might play for the weekend at the moment. 

[MCKillswitch123]

I have to be w/@WrathOfHan on this. RPO has clearly been more frontloaded than GI Joe 2 so far. It was pegged to perform to a niche/fanboy audience (the fanbase that drove the novel to mega heights), and while the general audience has showed up big so far, there are still clear signs of initial rush. Now, I'm not sidestepping it since wom is pretty damn good and it could still blow up on the weekend, but as of now, it has a good chance of falling shy of current expectations, even if not by much. Don't know about sub-40 for the 3-day, though.

Edited March 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[MikeQ]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

GI Joe increased 1.2% on Saturday with a 45.8% increase on Friday and 4.77x preview to OD multi. RPO only had a 3.2x preview to OD multi and is looking at a 25% increase today if that number holds. I highly doubt this is increasing tomorrow.

For what it's worth, if $15M is accurate, then GI Joe's and Ready Player One's Friday increases from their True Thursdays are pretty similar:

 

GI Joe

True Thursday: $8.3M

Friday: $15.3M (+85%)

 

Ready Player One

True Thursday: $8.25M

Friday: $15M (+82%)

 

Something to consider. Deadline's projection is an early one, and previews were definitely big for RPO (in terms of share of opening day), as you mention.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I have to be w/@WrathOfHan on this. RPO has clearly been more frontloaded than GI Joe 2 so far. It was pegged to perform to a niche/fanboy audience (the fanbase that drove the novel to mega heights), and while the general audience has showed up big so far, there are still clear signs of initial rush. Now, I'm not sidestepping it since wom is pretty damn good and it could still blow up on the weekend, but as of now, it has a good chance of falling shy of current expectations, even if not by much. Don't know about sub-40 for the 3-day, though.

BR2049 had a 10% drop on Saturday, something I think RPO won't have as it's a lot more accessible. If it does increase or barely drop then $40m+ for the three days is likely.

[WrathOfHan]

People need to remember that Ready Player One is based on a popular book. Love, Simon dropped 9.5% on its first Saturday with WOM that's out of this world. The best case scenario is probably a similar increase as Wonder (5.9%), but WOM is nowhere near the level of those two movies. Plus, today is a holiday.

[MovieMan89]

If GI Joe could barely manage a sat increase being that much less preview frontloaded than RPO, then why would RPO not decrease? Fantastic WOM spreading rapidly would be the only likely way it increases. 

[a2k]

4 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

@a2knet CBO folks are predicting 65m OW for RPO & Maoyan is predicting 250m+ final total.  

that is stunning. just went through the china thread. the 2 big markets, china and dom, could go past 400m combined on the high end. but 300m combined looks like a lock.

Edited March 30, 2018 by a2knet

[MikeQ]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

People need to remember that Ready Player One is based on a popular book. Love, Simon dropped 9.5% on its first Saturday with WOM that's out of this world. The best case scenario is probably a similar increase as Wonder (5.9%), but WOM is nowhere near the level of those two movies. Plus, today is a holiday.

Love, Simon is probably not the best comparison, simply because its Friday gross is inflated by not only regular previews but also its previews from the weekend prior to its opening weekend - I think over $1.6M of its total Friday gross is from previews alone. Otherwise, I get what you're saying.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited March 30, 2018 by MikeQ

[TwoMisfits]

For those that have seen RPO, does it have the "family" possibility that a movie like Transformers had?  If so, the folks thinking of a nice legs run could be on to something...

 

I mean, there's still a full week+ of family viewing coming before the end of spring break...and no offense to the Gnomes, but like Ferdinand losing to Jumanji at Xmas, I could easily see Gnomes losing to RPO if it "works" for families...I mean, dads would be all over this movie...and I could see kids (especially gamer ones) loving this, too - or having dad hope they love it:)...

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

BR2049 had a 10% drop on Saturday, something I think RPO won't have as it's a lot more accessible. If it does increase or barely drop then $40m+ for the three days is likely.

I find any 3-day opener a hard comparison to 4-day openers, especially those w/a holiday falling during the FSS frame, but here's the thing: 2049 had a 3.15 preview to OD multiplier, while RPO had a 3.16 multiplier. That's pretty much identical. Comparatively, GI Joe 2 had a 4.04 multiplier. Now, I imagine RPO is more accessible for GA's than 2049, but at the same time, coming off Good Friday and considering that it's a fanboy audience movie..... I don't know if it's impossible for it to drop on Saturday. I don't think it'll drop 10%, and if it drops it's gonna be less than that, but it could drop.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

If GI Joe could barely manage a sat increase being that much less preview frontloaded than RPO, then why would RPO not decrease? Fantastic WOM spreading rapidly would be the only likely way it increases. 

Yep, and WOM isn't at a high enough level to buck trends. The RT audience score has been at 80% for a while now, and the A- CinemaScore also doesn't indicate something out of this world. Before anyone wants to bring up Jumanji's A- from December, that was at an 86% audience score on RT in its second day and kept rising. The highest RPO has been was 82 or 83% IIRC.