Easter Weekend Thread: Official Weekend Actuals: RPO $41.8M ($53.7M 4-Day), Acrimony $17.2M, BP $11.5M, ICOI $10.4M, PRU $9.4M, IOD $2.9M, GND3 $2.7M

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I doubt Quiet Place makes that much.  I am putting 20M for my derby, and I will not budge higher.  As a matter of fact, I should drop it down to 10.

High concept that can fit into the title tend to be really good for the box office, horror can do really well, trailers are good, reviews are great (still at a 100% RT), it is a studio release with a massive marketing + massive theater count, Blunt-Krasinski couple is a nice +, PG-13 rating, nice tracking:

http://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/blockers-box-office-quiet-place-1202737537/

 

Paramount’s “A Quiet Place” is tracking to open between $16 million and $30 million. 

 

Not sure why it would go below it's worst case tracking scenario of $16m, would it not be having Blocker release the same weekend it would be a pretty much perfect scenario going on and could even open around Get Out 33m start.

 

Split could be hard to match because of the big Shyamalan factor, but very similar project otherwise

 

- great review horror,

- pg-13 (so people know nothing that disturbing will happen just big fun),

- that had 200 less theater than A quiet place

- studio release

- High concept that fit into the short title.

 

Look like the trailer is playing really really well (very similar to Split, 94%/9.5):

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/wz5p/a-quiet-place-movie-trailer

Sentiment

98% positive

Engagement Rating

9.5

Edited April 2, 2018 by Barnack

[SteveJaros]

2 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I'm eager to read your prediction involving DC vs Disney coming next Christmas (Aquaman vs Mary Poppins Returns)

 

My crack research team is still analyzing that question from many angles.

 

The biggest unresolved query is: Will Aqua-man top Poppins and Wreck-it-Ralph II combined? 

 

When the Brain Force generates its results, you will be the first to know. 

Edited April 2, 2018 by SteveJaros

[Jonwo]

I wonder if RPO can match or outgross Minority Report's domestic total which was leggy considering it opened to $35m. I imagine with a March release and slightly heavier competition, it'd be tough but possible. OS it'll smash MR due to overperforming in China and I can see it doing well in Japan.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

4 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

 

High concept that can fit into the title tend to be really good for the box office, horror can do really well, trailers are good, reviews are great (still at a 100% RT), it is a studio release with a massive marketing + massive theater count, Blunt-Krasinski couple is a nice +, PG-13 rating, nice tracking:

I thought Strangers: Prey at Night has one of the best simple and catchy titles of the year and that only opened to 10.4.  It looks like Quiet Place could open in 1,000 more spots than Strangers did, but I only see this doing half of The Girl on the Train numbers.

[That One Girl]

Considering it lost 14 theaters, this is a pretty good drop

 

45

63

Samson

PFR

$6,700

-54.8%

22

-14

$305

$4,712,388

-

7

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

My crack Research team is still analyzing that question from many angles.

 

The biggest unresolved query is: Will Aqua-man top Poppins and Wreck-it-Ralph II combined?

 

When the Brain Force generates its results, you will be the first to know.

1

 Poppins+Wreck-it 2 are literally more likely to do 3x Aquaman than fall below Aquaman.

[Barnack]

44 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I thought Strangers: Prey at Night has one of the best simple and catchy titles of the year and that only opened to 10.4.  It looks like Quiet Place could open in 1,000 more spots than Strangers did, but I only see this doing half of The Girl on the Train numbers.

That was an independant movie distributed by aviron picture, not sure how similar we can expect them to be.

 

It has a catchy title, but I do not think it's high concept has easily sell-able/mainstream potential like Split, Don't Breathe, happy death day or A Quiet Place.

 

Same PTA already push A quiet place over 13.5m, 10m would be quite low for it.

 

But blocker's could steal is thunder and you could be right, but I do not see why it would go that much lower than it's low-end tracking.

Edited April 2, 2018 by Barnack

[Green245]

2 hours ago, Sliver Legion said:

 Poppins+Wreck-it 2 are literally more likely to do 3x Aquaman than fall below Aquaman.

I think Aquaman has the chance to be real good. The biggest problem the movie will have is public relations.

 

First, Aquaman (thanks largely to the popular 1970s-80s Saturday cartoon) became a laughing-stock for generation of super hero fans.

 

Secondly, DC Comics carries a bad reputation for movie making. I fear the public won't give this movie a fair chance on is own merits. It's definitely unlikely to beat out Mary Poppins.

[svenson]

4 minutes ago, Green245 said:

I think Aquaman has the chance to be real good. The biggest problem the movie will have is public relations.

 

First, Aquaman (thanks largely to the popular 1970s-80s Saturday cartoon) became a laughing-stock for generation of super hero fans.

 

Secondly, DC Comics carries a bad reputation for movie making. I fear the public won't give this movie a fair chance on is own merits. It's definitely unlikely to beat out Mary Poppins.

Who knows if Poppins is even good. Blunt playing that iconic role could either be a hit or miss. We have no idea right now. 

[dxmatrixdt]

The Hurricane Heist Entertainment Studi…$30,211 -71%  36   $839  $6,084,464   (week #4)

That is a decent average for the fourth weekend.  I assume it is still full price for this one.  

 

[meriodejaneiro]

8 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

My crack research team is still analyzing that question from many angles.

 

The biggest unresolved query is: Will Aqua-man top Poppins and Wreck-it-Ralph II combined? 

 

When the Brain Force generates its results, you will be the first to know. 

Don't be shy ... add The Nutcracker to the mix!!

3 hours ago, svenson said:

Who knows if Poppins is even good. Blunt playing that iconic role could either be a hit or miss. We have no idea right now. 

Well, we have already some seconds of Blunt on the role (via teaser) and she seems to fit perfectly, physically and personality, the way she speaks, moves, looks ...for me it was like coming back to the original film. MPR can be next year's Jumanji2 box office surprise, leggy and 400M+ dom.

[dxmatrixdt]

Unsane and Midnight Sun had about three showings per venue in the listings. Varied from 1 - 5 showings per location.  They might be scheduled after early discount times and get a limited number of discount weekdays.  approximately 2,000 venues for each film.  The demand per time of the day might carry over to week 3, but 4-5 new films might be previewing in days.   

[ThiagoMaia]

7 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I thought Strangers: Prey at Night has one of the best simple and catchy titles of the year and that only opened to 10.4.  It looks like Quiet Place could open in 1,000 more spots than Strangers did, but I only see this doing half of The Girl on the Train numbers.

The colon on "Strangers: Prey at Night" makes it look like a sequel, I for one have no idea what it is about, or if it is a sequel or not, and have no interest on finding out. I think A Quiet Place has way more buzz, it had a Super bowl TV spot, online trailer has more views, and great reviews. It certainly has way more breakout potential than Strangers: Prey at Night.

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 The Easter belongs to the Rabbit.

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_29_marco_a_1_abril_2018_162815ac206098df9c.pdf

 

Also, another spectacular hold for Tomb Raider and a solid if underwhelming opening for RPO.

[MCKillswitch123]

28 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

The colon on "Strangers: Prey at Night" makes it look like a sequel, I for one have no idea what it is about, or if it is a sequel or not, and have no interest on finding out. I think A Quiet Place has way more buzz, it had a Super bowl TV spot, online trailer has more views, and great reviews. It certainly has way more breakout potential than Strangers: Prey at Night.

Yes, The Strangers: Prey At Night is indeed a sequel, to 2008's The Strangers, which was a surprise hit (made 52.6M DOM - 67.2M adjusted, same numbers that Insidious 4 posed earlier this year - and 82.4M WW). Safe to say that Strangers 2, w/a different distributor, no starpower, no real huge demand for a Strangers sequel, not a lot of marketing and pretty bad reviews, wasn't gonna get anywhere near what the 1st one made.

 

And yes, A Quiet Place is probably the most anticipated horror movie since It. Seems to have a lot more buzz surrounding it than Insidious 4, Strangers 2 and Winchester, the last three major horror movies we got, combined. And Insidious broke out and blew up big, so that's saying something.

 

@CJohn Damn good start for Peter, and yeah not too great for RPO but that doesn't really surprise me. Tomb Raider is a fucking juggernaut, though. Video game movies are huge in this country, it seems  Red Sparrow and Shape Of Water both have very sexy totals as well. And Black Panther.... is it the biggest non-Spidey or DC superhero movie ever for us?

Edited April 2, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[CJohn]

45 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

 

@CJohn Damn good start for Peter, and yeah not too great for RPO but that doesn't really surprise me. Tomb Raider is a fucking juggernaut, though. Video game movies are huge in this country, it seems  Red Sparrow and Shape Of Water both have very sexy totals as well. And Black Panther.... is it the biggest non-Spidey or DC superhero movie ever for us?

It is still below Deadpool for now. Not sure if it has enough juice to pass it. Easily the biggest MCU movie, tho. BvS will be passed either today or tomorrow.

 

Tomb Raider has already passed the total of Assassin's Creed here.

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is still below Deadpool for now. Not sure if it has enough juice to pass it. Easily the biggest MCU movie, tho. BvS will be passed either today or tomorrow.

 

Tomb Raider has already passed the total of Assassin's Creed here.

Forgot Deadpool was that big over here. Gives me good hopes for Deadpool 2's prospects (though one never knows what could Infinity War do as well).

 

Assassin's Creed is a bummer. Imagine the numbers it would pose if it was actually a fucking half-watchable movie rather than a gutted and rotten piece of garbage.

[dxmatrixdt]

Rings should have done 40 OW.  I wonder if Coco, Strangers 2,  Jumanji, Greatest Showman, Peter Rabbit, and Love Simon can all hold at least 10% better than what the estimates are saying.  That would add 2k to Coco, at least 14 for strangers, 16k for Jumanji, 17 showman, 45 peter rabbit and 100k love simon.  That would put Love, Simon at 4.9 in the derby and keep Peter Rabbit above 2m for the weekend.  Greatest Showman would bump up to 700,000, and have Strangers going for 20th place.

[Krissykins]

Unsane had the biggest second weekend drop of all time. 

 

[Boxofficerules]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Unsane had the biggest second weekend drop of all time. 

 

That’s a typo.