Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[Boxofficerules]

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Bird Box feels sort of pointless now with Quiet Place making so much noise. 

Which is too bad because the story of Bird Box >>.

I feel bad for the writer of The Silence, he’s been trying to get that novel turned into a movie for years now.

[Zakiyyah6]

14 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I just wanted to make clear what the meaning of the term "Blockbuster" once was (and imo should still be), before the industry itself began to use it inflationary. It was ofc a blockbuster, but compared to something like The Exorcist (to remain in the same genre) still a smaller-scale one.

Comparing ticket sales from the 70's to the 2010's is pointless. The Exocrcist didn't have to deal with Netlfix and all the other things that people decide to do instead of going to the movies. If you think that films are only blockbusters today if they hit 600mil domestic then you don't know how to read the modern box office landscape. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[sfran43]

 

[LonePirate]

Interesting #, Exhibit A: ICOI is finally crumbling. It had the second lowest PTA in the Top 10 on Friday after a minor expansion yet again this week.

 

Interesting #, Exhibit B: If TMS can hold off PRU the next couple of days (a big if), then PRU will have fallen out of the Top 10 after just two weekends. Talk about playing to your core fans and no one else.

[Celedhring]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

No. A blockbuster per definition is a movie that fills entire city blocks with people standing in line to watch a movie. It should be reserved for Smashes like Black Panther, Last Jedi, TFA, JW or TA1. A Quiet place is shaping up to be a big sucess, but not a blockbuster.

I agree. Decades of inflation have allowed the media to cheapen what the word blockbuster originally meant. Grossing 100 or 200m doesn't mean what it meant in the 70s or 80s, when the word became popular.

 

Out of curiosity, I went and checked Jaws (the quintessential "blockbuster") OW PTA. It adjusts to $77,000. Now that's "block busting". Of course in a fraction of the theaters than your TFA, BP or JW will open nowadays, but the queues must have been crazy. I wonder what kind of PTA one could get if for whatever reason one chose to open something like Star Wars IX on a limited release before expanding.

 

[WrathOfHan]

A Quiet Place:

Apr 6: 54M (21.6M weekdays, 75.6M Total)

Apr 13: 37.8M (12.9M weekdays, 126.3M Total)

Apr 20: 22.5M (7.5M weekdays, 156.3M Total)

Apr 27: 11.2M (4M weekdays, 171.5M Total)

May 4: 7.6M (2.6M weekdays, 181.7M Total)

May 11: 4.7M (1.3M weekdays, 187.7M Total)

May 18: 1.8M (600k weekdays, 190.1M Total)

May 25: 900k (500k weekdays, 191.5M Total)

Final Total: 194M (3.59x)

 

Is this better for you fuckers?  

 

Blockers:

Apr 6: 23.2M (7.7M weekdays, 30.9M Total)

Apr 13: 12M (4.4M weekdays, 47.3M Total)

Apr 20: 7.6M (2.6M weekdays, 57.5M Total)

Apr 27: 3.6M (1.3M weekdays, 62.4M Total)

May 4: 2.3M (900k weekdays, 65.6M Total)

May 11: 1.4M (400k weekdays, 67.4M Total)

May 18: 500k (100k weekdays, 68M Total)

Final Total: 70M (3.02x)

 

The B Cinemascore makes me think Game Night legs are out of the question, but it'll end up with a very good total. If there weren't two comedies and Infinity War coming out later this month, 80M would've been in reach.

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Comparing ticket sales from the 70's to the 2010's is pointless. The Exocrcist didn't have to deal with Netlfix and all the other things that people decide to do instead of going to the movies. If you think that films are only blockbusters today if they hit 600mil domestic then you don't know how to read the modern box office landscape. 

 

What i dont need is people telling me how one has to read the "modern box office landscape". You clearly didnt read my post (where did i say movies need to hit 600M for them to be blockbusters??) since i stated that i think IT was a blockbuster, but one that is on a much smaller scale than the movies that really fit the definition of a true blockbuster (Jaws, SW: ANH, E.T, Titanic etc). 

Also, i dont take people seriously that think adjusting for inflation doesnt mean anything. True, the 70's had no Netflix. Tickets were also MUCH cheaper back then. Adjusting the numbers for inflation is the only way we can properly compare modern movies to older ones, because the US doesnt count ticket sales for some reason.

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Interesting #, Exhibit A: ICOI is finally crumbling. It had the second lowest PTA in the Top 10 on Friday after a minor expansion yet again this week.

Yeah, it fell off a cliff at my theater yesterday. I initially thought it would collapse after Easter, but the two 20% drops in a row had me thinking otherwise. It might be in for a drop close to 50% next week without the post-Easter weekend boost.

[DAJK]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah, it fell off a cliff at my theater yesterday. I initially thought it would collapse after Easter, but the two 20% drops in a row had me thinking otherwise. It might be in for a drop close to 50% next week without the post-Easter weekend boost.

ICOI died at my theatre yesterday. Down 70% from last Friday.

 

Blockers was actually right on the nose with "my system vs actual box office" with 7.8M. Less I say about AQP the better

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

ICOI died at my theatre yesterday. Down 70% from last Friday.

 

Blockers was actually right on the nose with "my system vs actual box office" with 7.8M. Less I say about AQP the better

 

Oh?

[Zakiyyah6]

29 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Interesting #, Exhibit A: ICOI is finally crumbling. It had the second lowest PTA in the Top 10 on Friday after a minor expansion yet again this week.

 

Interesting #, Exhibit B: If TMS can hold off PRU the next couple of days (a big if), then PRU will have fallen out of the Top 10 after just two weekends. Talk about playing to your core fans and no one else.

PRU only would have succeeded if it were good and was made to appeal to the masses more than the first one. They could pretend there was potential because if cracked 100mil in North America and did 112mil in China but it hasn't shown growth at all. A big drop in North America and no growth in China makes another one highly, highly unlikely. 

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

Oh?

Yea

 

Thought it would do Split business here (21M OD, 49M weekend) turns out I guess my town doesn't care about Krasinski

[Green245]

23 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Comparing ticket sales from the 70's to the 2010's is pointless. The Exocrcist didn't have to deal with Netlfix and all the other things that people decide to do instead of going to the movies. If you think that films are only blockbusters today if they hit 600mil domestic then you don't know how to read the modern box office landscape. 

Agreed. Proper, legitimate comparisons are very difficult. 

 

Not to go off on a tangent, but it bothers me the way people use "adjusted for inflation" numbers blindly when assessing movies from yesteryear. This is lazy and inaccurate. The truth is comparing movie sales across time is nearly impossible.

 

For instance, movie ticket pricing has risen faster than median wages. It is more difficult to purchase a movie ticket today than it was in the 1970s. The true purchase power of the American public was greater generations ago. So to simply take today's pricing and extrapolate that to ticket sales in 1980 makes no sense. 

 

Example. Say in 1977 I sell widgets for $1. And then in 2018 I sell widgets for $20 dollars. To then go back and simply add $19 dollars in value to the widgets I sold in 1977 is ridiculous. If the widgets were $20 dollars in 1977, less widgets would have been sold. Every economist understands this except for the "adjusted for inflation" movie list people.  if Gone with the Wind were released today, it would not generate close to its "adjusted for inflation" 1939 revenue. PERIOD. There are a lot of people that don't buy movie tickets because the price is too high. But if movie ticket prices were adjusted to inflation based on median working wages, they would go.

 

Additionally, movies years ago faced vastly less competition. Major movies would often stay in theaters for a full year or more. Gone With the Wind just to continue with this example, was in theaters for decades.  Star Wars (May 1977) had a theater run well into 1978 and beyond. To be clear, I'm not counting re-releases. Just standard movie releases a generation ago gave films the opportunity to "run up the score" that just don't exist today.

 

Just as an example, I wanted to see Tomb Raider this weekend. At my favorite theater, its already gone. Tomb Raider would still be there if it were 1985.

 

Finally, the internet, Netflix, VUDU, HULU, Cable etc. has clearly impacted theater movie business.

 

Does this mean almost every top 20 grossing move of all time has been made in the last 10 years? Of course not. But its equally wrong to downplay movies of today, simply by adjusting ticket pricing of today to figures from 10-70 years ago. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Green245

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Yeah, cause there could only be 1 blockbuster spot. In the meantime, there's never enough spots for mediocre biopics. 

Let’s be honest, just getting one great blockbuster nominated should be considered a win

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

Let’s be honest, just getting one great blockbuster nominated should be considered a win

Sad but true. And to think that they expanded the field to 10 to give blockbusters a chance. That quickly degenerated into Preferential Ballot that doesn't favor them. 

[WrathOfHan]

The sound categories seem like a given for A Quiet Place. Original Screenplay probably stands a decent chance as well because of how fucking empty that category is. Everything else is a bit early to judge.

[LonePirate]

Love, Simon finally passed a 3.0 multiplier on Friday, something that the much more hyped TR and PRU will not do and AWIT may barely achieve. Still, it's disappointing given the A+ Cinemascore and with ICOI only days away from reaching a 4.0 multiplier after opening on the same day. I'm not sure if LS was too young for adults or too gay for straight people or possibly both. Then again, rom coms are a tough sell nowadays for some reason.

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The sound categories seem like a given for A Quiet Place. Original Screenplay probably stands a decent chance as well because of how fucking empty that category is. Everything else is a bit early to judge.

I think it’s too early to say anything’s a given or empty, we have little indication of what’ll actually be on the radar in 6-7 months

[KeepItU25071906]

5 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Love, Simon finally passed a 3.0 multiplier on Friday, something that the much more hyped TR and PRU will not do 

Much more hyped usually equals lesser multiplier. So...

Edited April 7, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[IronJimbo]

Alita battle angel got moved to december to push for best picture