Weekend Thread: WKND #BoxOffice - APR 20-22:#AQuietPlace $22M/$132.4M#Rampage $21M/$66.6M#IFeelPretty $16.2M#SuperTroopers $14.7M#TruthOrDare $7.9M/$30.4M pg 24

[filmlover]

Just now, Trolltastic Tele said:

What if there’s no need to add nore IW showtimes?  

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

What if there’s no need to add nore IW showtimes?  

Such a sad bitter old man. 

[Dementeleus]

...I apologize unreservedly.  

[Fancyarcher]

2 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

What if there’s no need to add nore IW showtimes?  

[That One Girl]

Tele <3

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

700m milestone for bp seems just out of reach. Wonder if any big milestones are left for it worldwide

There's TDK DOM adjusted.

 

Needs to cross around 683 m.

[Ledmonkey96]

20 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

There's TDK DOM adjusted.

 

Needs to cross around 683 m.

ya but that's just 2mil away after this weekend.....

 

I wonder if BP will stay in the top 10 next weekend, the only release is IW, and I don't see Traffik or Banat Ane Nenu staying ahead,

[Mr Impossible]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

When dom returns are healthy, 2.5x*prod budget is a good enough global safety mark. Rampage should at least do 3x :

 

92.5 dom

132.5 china

135 os-china

= 360 ww (3.0 * 120)

 

92.5*0.55 + 132.5*0.25 + 135*0.33 = 129

 

It should do more than $135 million minus China overseas. Tomb Raider did $133 million and this is doing way better. I think $400 million is a very achievable goal 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

When dom returns are healthy, 2.5x*prod budget is a good enough global safety mark. Rampage should at least do 3x :

 

92.5 dom

132.5 china

135 os-china

= 360 ww (3.0 * 120)

 

92.5*0.55 + 132.5*0.25 + 135*0.33 = 129

90 on a 120 budget is a "healthy" DOM return? 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

90 on a 120 budget is a "healthy" DOM return? 

Tomb Raider and Rampage are both looking at 3x the prod budget. But TR's dom is 60% of the budget (58/94) while Rampage's 90-95 would be 75-80% of 120.

 

I think dom doing 75-80% of the prod budget for a big budgeted movie with strong OS is good enough today.

[Maxmoser3]

Super Troopers 2 doing mid-to-high teens is interesting 

[Barnack]

31 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

 

It should do more than $135 million minus China overseas. Tomb Raider did $133 million and this is doing way better. I think $400 million is a very achievable goal 

Correct, that the kind of movie that feel global 35/65 ratio without needing a big China performance.

 

Rampage opened around 70m intl minus China (not including France, Japan, Germany, Poland, Hong Kong), Tomb Raider was around 43m if I remember correctly.

 

Even using worst case scenario, a terrible 2x multi for the first markets release, adding those 5 major market should easily put it above 165m.

 

I imagine 165m + 145m china + 90m putting above 400m is easily achievable, could get to 420-425.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Tomb Raider and Rampage are both looking at 3x the prod budget. But TR's dom is 60% of the budget (58/94) while Rampage's 90-95 would be 75-80% of 120.

 

I think dom doing 75-80% of the prod budget for a big budgeted movie with strong OS is good enough today.

Assuming Rampage doesn't totally collapse after this week and end up more in the mid 80s range. Then we're looking more at 70%, not a whole lot different than TR. Regardless, I agree both should be breakeven at least. 

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Assuming Rampage doesn't totally collapse after this week and end up more in the mid 80s range. Then we're looking more at 70%, not a whole lot different than TR. Regardless, I agree both should be breakeven at least. 

If it has a 18 weekend for 64 I don't see it failing to add 26 more (for 90 dom) despite large drop next weekend. Anyway, yeah both should break even but Rampage imo could go further depending on OS-China. 360-365 is the minimum it's looking at while 400 is possible based on AIW's os-china impact.

[Webslinger]

Super Troopers 2 did way better than I was expecting. I felt like the ship had long since sailed for that one. Perhaps with its surprise success, we'll finally get the fourth Harold & Kumar movie for the next 4/20? 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

If it has a 18 weekend for 64 I don't see it failing to add 26 more (for 90 dom) despite large drop next weekend. Anyway, yeah both should break even but Rampage imo could go further depending on OS-China. 360-365 is the minimum it's looking at while 400 is possible based on AIW's os-china impact.

It's unlikely to hit 90 if it drops 70%+ next weekend. I personally don't see why it wouldn't, but I suppose spillover could help it some. 

 

 

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

90 on a 120 budget is a "healthy" DOM return? 

For a global movie, healthy is pushing it I think you like to get close to your budget on the dbo, but at least it is not hurting you by having a theatrical release costing significantly higher than your rental that make it hard to achieve success from a good International run a la Warcraft type.

 

Just imagine how much it would have changed for Blade Runner or Ghost in a shell to make 75% of their budget domestic.

 

Now is 120m budget close to the truth ?.... if so it is a very direct comparable to a movie like Elysium (close to 130m production cost, around 100m world P&A).

 

Domestic revenues from is 93m run (I imagine that close to where Rampage will end up)

48.55m theatrical

62.874m home ent

Dom TV: 25.745

137.17m domestic

 

Elyisum made 167.3 intl-China Intl estimate, if Rampage reach nearly 180m there it could mimick Elyisum Intl revenues

74m theatrical

42.5m home ent

45.6m Intl tv

162.1m intl

 

Add Airlines deal and that 300m + What you can make from an over 130m China performance

 

[Sam]

1 hour ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

What if there’s no need to add nore IW showtimes?  

What did Disney do to Lab Rats this time? 

[Mr Impossible]

Rampage will probably perform really after its theatrical run especially on TV. It’s made for FX. 

Edited April 21, 2018 by Mr Impossible

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Sam said:

What did Disney do to Lab Rats this time? 

CANCELLED