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Is Dwayne Johnson surpassing Will Smith?

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I don't know if he has yet, but the way things are going it's only a matter of time...  Dwayne is on a such a roll and bringing out movie after movie...  After he's done, he's going to probably pass Eddie Murphy, Will Smith, Denzel Washington, etc. in terms of being the box office king for black actors...  Who would have thought this 5 years ago?

 

(I don't count someone like Samuel L. Jackson because he's mostly in supporting roles). 

 

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The thing about Smith is that he could sell anything.  There was a time where for about a decade almost any film he was in was gold at the box office.  Dwayne isn't there yet.  Maybe he will be one day but right now, he's nowhere near Smith in that capacity.

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Dwayne's success is outstanding in every way but he isn't Will who made better, more memorable/relevant movies, not to mention across many genres, in his heyday and also had the ultimate star power hit in IAL (spent almost the whole movie alone on the screen, with only a dog as a companion). I wouldn't compare Dwayne with Arnie either (though the muscle bound action hero role well) because Arnie also had some cinema classics on his resume which Dwayne doesn't.  

 

Edited by Valonqar
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3 hours ago, harrycaul said:

Can Johnson make even Wild Wild West a top 20 film for the year?

 

But that was only because it opened on Will's name.  It still had a 4X but it was certainly not one of his best received films.

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6 minutes ago, baumer said:

It still had a 4X but it was certainly not one of his best received films.

To be fair, Wild Wild West opened on a Wednesday (and the weekend was a 4-day frame). Had it opened on a Friday and a traditional 3-day frame, its multiplier would've been much smaller.

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4 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

Dwayne is on a such a roll and bringing out movie after movie...  After he's done, he's going to probably pass Eddie Murphy, Will Smith, Denzel Washington, etc. in terms of being the box office king for black actors...  Who would have thought this 5 years ago?

Not sure if it is that close of Smith prime it is just a different era, Will Smith was doing stuff like that on non sequel entry

 

2 3 I Am Legend WB $256,393,010 3,648 $77,211,321 3,606 12/14/07
3 5 Hancock Sony $227,946,274 3,965 $62,603,879 3,965 7/2/08
5 11 I, Robot Fox $144,801,023 3,494 $52,179,887 3,420 7/16/04
7 4 Men in Black Sony $250,690,539 3,180 $51,068,455 3,020 7/2/97
8 2 Independence Day Fox $306,169,268 2,977 $50,228,264 2,882 7/3/96
11 7 Hitch Sony $179,495,555 3,575 $43,142,214 3,575 2/11/05
12 13 Wild Wild West WB $113,804,681 3,342 $27,687,484 3,342 6/30/99

 

Wild Wild West was seen has a major flop back in the days, it opened at 41.34m in 2018 US dollar, with just 3,330 theater and pure normal 2d ticketing. I am legend was around 93m OW in 2018 dollar with just 3,600 theater and no 3D....

 

Without adjusting for ticket price, 3d, theater count, just by dollar, look at those opening weekend in 2018 $:

 

I am legend: 93m

I-Day: 79.89m

Men in black: 79.3m

Hancock: 72.56m

I robot: 68.93m

Hitch: 55.12m

WWW: 41.43m

 

They look like the non-avengers MCU numbers....

 

DiCaprio/Nolan together on Inception did 71.85m, the only time DiCaprio went over 55m in 2018$ dollar OW in is career, Will Smith did it 7 times.

 

Johnson biggest non-sequel/remake live action openning in 2018 dollar

San Andreas: 54.5m

Central Intelligence: 37m

Rampage: 36m

Hercules : 31m

Race to witch mountain: 27.92

Game plan: 27.6m

Run Down: 25.16m

Pain&Gain: 21.64m

-------

Great obviously, but a clear lower tier than prime Smith.

 

 

He was pushing movies like Hitch and Pursuit of Happiness above 200m adjusted, Johnson never came close to do anything like that, no one really is right one.

 

To give a sense of how big he was, 

Puirsuit of Happiness made 400m in revenues from a 50m budget 

Hancock made 660m in revenues on a 166m budget, Smith was probably paid over 100m on that one (the talent bonus paid by the studio was around 113m).

 

Just a different era, and Eddie Murphy was also ridiculously big.

 

Will Smith international metric are some of the best of all time, if not the best:

Awareness:

Smith, Will Australia 0.98
Smith, Will Brazil 0.98
Smith, Will France 0.99
Smith, Will Germany 0.98
Smith, Will Italy 0.966169154
Smith, Will Japan 0.90029615
Smith, Will Korea 0.942439996
Smith, Will Mexico 0.99
Smith, Will Russia 0.96829689
Smith, Will Spain 0.99
Smith, Will UK 0.99
Smith, Will Int'l Average 0.970654745

 

Fan among aware: .77

 

That a ridiculous .75 international score (awareness * popularity among aware).

 

Eddy Murphy:

Murphy, Eddie Australia 0.979062812
Murphy, Eddie Brazil 0.993
Murphy, Eddie France 0.980059821
Murphy, Eddie Germany 0.983050847
Murphy, Eddie Italy 0.984031936
Murphy, Eddie Japan 0.927
Murphy, Eddie Korea  
Murphy, Eddie Mexico 0.984047856
Murphy, Eddie Russia  
Murphy, Eddie Spain 0.983084577
Murphy, Eddie UK 0.982
Murphy, Eddie Int'l Average 0.977259761

 

 

Fan among aware .65

 

Dwayne Johnson in 2012:

Johnson, Dwayne Australia 0.87
Johnson, Dwayne Brazil 0.92
Johnson, Dwayne France 0.57
Johnson, Dwayne Germany 0.79
Johnson, Dwayne Italy 0.689163498
Johnson, Dwayne Japan 0.24
Johnson, Dwayne Korea  
Johnson, Dwayne Mexico 0.94
Johnson, Dwayne Russia  
Johnson, Dwayne Spain 0.812202097
Johnson, Dwayne UK 0.82
Johnson, Dwayne Int'l Average 0.739040622

 

Fan among aware: .49

 

Every time a make a list of "do you know how rare it is for a non-horror live action without a strong IP movie to do something ?", like talking about Rampage chance of doing less than 40m OW. A ridiculous percentage of the movies that will have achieved to do it are Will Smith movies.

Edited by Barnack
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Imagine dwayne making a movie like pursuit? it'd gross 50m at best

 

Back to Will, why did hs suddenly lose his star power tho?? it happened all of a sudden after MIB3. did his son curse him with that bomb movie they made?

Edited by TombRaider
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Absolutely not. Smith starred in a 12 year, 15 movie streak where literally only two of those didn't turn to pure gold at the box office. The other 13 adjust between 200-650m DOM, and were all just as big or bigger than that OS as well. And we're talking about movies across all kinds of genres: oscar bait drama, action, sci-fi, western, rom-com, buddy comedy, horror, superhero, political thriller, animation, you name it. More importantly, all of said films would have been lucky to do half as much without him.

 

The Rock on the other hand has Jumanji and a handful of other 100-150m grossers outside of the Fast franchise (which has nothing to do with him in terms of success). Jumanji was also very much a team effort type of movie, I don't think it was any one between the four that drew audiences way more. They all stood out, Jack Black arguably more than The Rock.

 

Rampage proves to me that The Rock can't take any concept to the bank on his own. It looked too dumb in the marketing for mass appeal, and it ended up opening poorly. Now granted it's having good WOM, but it should have opened to about twice as much if The Rock was such a draw right now. He's not even close to Smith level, and it would take like half a dozen 200m+ hits in a row that he stars in (not just supporting like Fast) before we could even begin to discuss it. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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17 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

Imagine dwayne making a movie like pursuit? it'd gross 50m at best

Probably true but that is not 100% fair too, Johnson physic make it almost impossible to portray a character like that.

 

18 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

Back to Will, why did hs suddenly lose his star power tho??

The way Suicide Squad and Focus played Internationally it show there is some left in there (even collateral beauty in some market) and it is always easy to over-analyse and be wrong, but I am not sure about sudden. After Earth / Winter tale combo could have caused it or just be the symptom.

 

http://www.metacritic.com/person/will-smith

There is no movie starring Will Smith in the green since 2007. I think it is mostly simply that, combined with the franchisation of the box office of the type of movies he was often doing is biggest buck.

 

  

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It's no secret why Smith came crashing down off the pedestal: he started doing shitty movies. Seven Pounds, After Earth, Focus, Suicide Squad, Collateral Beauty...

:gold::gold::gold:

 

I mean my goodness, that kind of filmography streak would kill anyone's draw power. Hancock is what started all the sub-par films, but the GA were so into him at the time they gave him a pass on it and it still turned out big numbers anyway. But you can't be in movies like that very long and expect the GA in masse to look past it. After Earth was basically the death blow to his appeal. He would have made something decent like Concussion a huge hit if it didn't come after so many misfires when he had lost all his draw power. 

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3 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

He isn't anywhere as big as the big ones were at their peak but he's the only big star we actually have at the moment, sadly.

 

The Rock doesn't have the draw power Leo's pinky does if we're talking about most draw power currently. I'd also say Denzel still has more pure draw power, he just never does the kinds of films that would gross 200m+. RDJ probably still has a huge amount of inherent draw power if he ever did anything outside of MCU these days for us to know for sure. 

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Just now, MovieMan89 said:

The Rock doesn't have the draw power Leo's pinky does if we're talking about most draw power currently. I'd also say Denzel still has more pure draw power, he just never does the kinds of films that would gross 200m+. RDJ probably still has a huge amount of inherent draw power if he ever did anything outside of MCU these days for us to know for sure. 

 

Denzel is a reliable draw up to a point only.

 

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

aBY6NWA_700b.jpg

He hasn't been very active lately. I thought of him but his next projects don't even look very commercial. We'll see I guess.

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