Is Dwayne Johnson surpassing Will Smith?

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I'd argue DiCaprio is the main draw these days. The Great Gatsby making nearly $150M despite being a period drama with mediocre reviews (a recipe for box office failure if there ever was one) is no small achievement. 

I can guarantee people are going to sleep on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's chances. A Tarantino movie with DiCaprio as the lead is going to gross a boatload of money.

[filmlover]

Speaking of draws, Ryan Gosling is starting to become something of a DiCaprio where he's picky about projects. Granted, only La La Land was a smash hit that could be attributed to him (and Stone), but in the past three years he's also had The Big Short with over $70M+ (although he shared it with other big name actors) and, even though it was considered a financial flop, Blade Runner 2049 with almost $100M (which also had Harrison Ford heavily featured alongside him in the marketing but he didn't appear until the final third of the movie). Of course, The Nice Guys flopped in between all of those movies but that was always going to be more of a cult hit than a box office one. All eyes will be on First Man later this year, especially in the possible event he turns out to be the Best Actor frontrunner (assuming, of course, the film delivers).

[Arlborn]

11 minutes ago, Alli said:

will smith will make a comeback with aladdin. and the ang lee movie sounds like it has potential

Well, according to Netflix he already has; his big hit is even getting a sequel ASAP!

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Revolutionary Road is more what usually happen for a period drama with mediocre reviews if they do not have a giant pre-made fanbase.

Revolutionary Road got solid reviews (even if it didn't become the major Oscar player it was expected to be) and had a lot of hoopla surrounding him and Winslet reuniting. The movie was just too much of a downer (and not enough of an awards players) to attract much of an audience.

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ryan Gosling is starting to become something of a DiCaprio where he's picky about projects.

Around 50% Gosling movie's did not reach 10m domestic too, even really good movie with giant marketing like Nice guys, Drive and Blade Runner lost money.

 

Maybe La la land changed that for him, but I am not sure.

 

[aabattery]

I have zero proof of this but I feel like Jack Black was a bigger part of Jumanji's success than Dwayne. Both helped, obviously, but it wasn't all on Johnson's shoulders. Plus Kevin Hart is a pretty big draw himself.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, aaSlattery said:

I have zero proof of this but I feel like Jack Black was a bigger part of Jumanji's success than Dwayne. Both helped, obviously, but it wasn't all on Johnson's shoulders. Plus Kevin Hart is a pretty big draw himself.

It's obvious who the main draw was.

 

[Jessie]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

Not sure if it is that close of Smith prime it is just a different era, Will Smith was doing stuff like that on non sequel entry

 

2	3	I Am Legend	WB	$256,393,010	3,648	$77,211,321	3,606	12/14/07
3	5	Hancock	Sony	$227,946,274	3,965	$62,603,879	3,965	7/2/08

5

11

I, Robot

Fox

$144,801,023

3,494

$52,179,887

3,420

7/16/04

7	4	Men in Black	Sony	$250,690,539	3,180	$51,068,455	3,020	7/2/97
8	2	Independence Day	Fox	$306,169,268	2,977	$50,228,264	2,882	7/3/96

11	7	Hitch	Sony	$179,495,555	3,575	$43,142,214	3,575	2/11/05
12	13	Wild Wild West	WB	$113,804,681	3,342	$27,687,484	3,342	6/30/99

 

Wild Wild West was seen has a major flop back in the days, it opened at 41.34m in 2018 US dollar, with just 3,330 theater and pure normal 2d ticketing. I am legend was around 93m OW in 2018 dollar with just 3,600 theater and no 3D....

 

Without adjusting for ticket price, 3d, theater count, just by dollar, look at those opening weekend in 2018 $:

 

I am legend: 93m

I-Day: 79.89m

Men in black: 79.3m

Hancock: 72.56m

I robot: 68.93m

Hitch: 55.12m

WWW: 41.43m

 

They look like the non-avengers MCU numbers....

 

DiCaprio/Nolan together on Inception did 71.85m, the only time DiCaprio went over 55m in 2018$ dollar OW in is career, Will Smith did it 7 times.

 

Johnson biggest non-sequel/remake live action openning in 2018 dollar

San Andreas: 54.5m

Central Intelligence: 37m

Rampage: 36m

Hercules : 31m

Race to witch mountain: 27.92

Game plan: 27.6m

Run Down: 25.16m

Pain&Gain: 21.64m

-------

Great obviously, but a clear lower tier than prime Smith.

 

 

He was pushing movies like Hitch and Pursuit of Happiness above 200m adjusted, Johnson never came close to do anything like that, no one really is right one.

 

To give a sense of how big he was, 

Puirsuit of Happiness made 400m in revenues from a 50m budget 

Hancock made 660m in revenues on a 166m budget, Smith was probably paid over 100m on that one (the talent bonus paid by the studio was around 113m).

 

Just a different era, and Eddie Murphy was also ridiculously big.

 

Will Smith international metric are some of the best of all time, if not the best:

Awareness:

Smith, Will	Australia	0.98
Smith, Will	Brazil	0.98
Smith, Will	France	0.99
Smith, Will	Germany	0.98
Smith, Will	Italy	0.966169154
Smith, Will	Japan	0.90029615
Smith, Will	Korea	0.942439996
Smith, Will	Mexico	0.99
Smith, Will	Russia	0.96829689
Smith, Will	Spain	0.99
Smith, Will	UK	0.99
Smith, Will	Int'l Average	0.970654745

 

Fan among aware: .77

 

That a ridiculous .75 international score (awareness * popularity among aware).

 

Eddy Murphy:

Murphy, Eddie	Australia	0.979062812
Murphy, Eddie	Brazil	0.993
Murphy, Eddie	France	0.980059821
Murphy, Eddie	Germany	0.983050847
Murphy, Eddie	Italy	0.984031936
Murphy, Eddie	Japan	0.927
Murphy, Eddie	Korea
Murphy, Eddie	Mexico	0.984047856
Murphy, Eddie	Russia
Murphy, Eddie	Spain	0.983084577
Murphy, Eddie	UK	0.982
Murphy, Eddie	Int'l Average	0.977259761

 

 

Fan among aware .65

 

Dwayne Johnson in 2012:

Johnson, Dwayne	Australia	0.87
Johnson, Dwayne	Brazil	0.92
Johnson, Dwayne	France	0.57
Johnson, Dwayne	Germany	0.79
Johnson, Dwayne	Italy	0.689163498
Johnson, Dwayne	Japan	0.24
Johnson, Dwayne	Korea
Johnson, Dwayne	Mexico	0.94
Johnson, Dwayne	Russia
Johnson, Dwayne	Spain	0.812202097
Johnson, Dwayne	UK	0.82
Johnson, Dwayne	Int'l Average	0.739040622

 

Fan among aware: .49

 

Every time a make a list of "do you know how rare it is for a non-horror live action without a strong IP movie to do something ?", like talking about Rampage chance of doing less than 40m OW. A ridiculous percentage of the movies that will have achieved to do it are Will Smith movies.

ID4 made over 100m on OW adjusted and it opened on a tuesday. With 3d thats close to 115m. Madness  

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, aaSlattery said:

I have zero proof of this but I feel like Jack Black was a bigger part of Jumanji's success than Dwayne. Both helped, obviously, but it wasn't all on Johnson's shoulders. Plus Kevin Hart is a pretty big draw himself.

Hart is pretty much domestic only too no ? Jumanji was a global success, on the domestic market in a comedy I think Hart is pretty much has big as Johnson, Ride Along opened higher than Central Intelligence after all. But in many other market that was Johnson.

 

I am not sure I get the Jack Black being a bigger draw than those 2 narrative, is movies even acclaimed one sometime do not cross 10m.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Barnack

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Hart is pretty much domestic too ? Jumanji was a global success, on the domestic market in a comedy I think Hart is pretty much has big as Johnson, Ride Along opened higher than Central Intelligence after all. But in many other market that was Johnson.

 

I am not sure I get the Jack Black being a bigger draw than those 2 narrative, is movies even acclaimed one sometime do not cross 10m.

 

I said I didn't have any proof 

 

It's probably my own bias talking cause he was the main reason I bothered going out to see it. He wasn't why it opened big but I feel like his character was one of the stronger gags in the movie. I'm sure he was one of the reasons why the legs were so strong.

[Ethan Hunt]

Yeah if he has something like Pursuit of Happiness do gangbusters, then we can talk. Not until then 

[PDC1987]

I also say DiCaprio is the biggest draw in Hollywood. He can open a far wider variety of films than Dwayne.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I can guarantee people are going to sleep on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's chances. A Tarantino movie with DiCaprio as the lead is going to gross a boatload of money.

Yep, and it's Leo + Brad. An Event if there was ever one, that doesn't contain 'splosions. 

 

I mean, Leo is a bigger draw but the combo is going to put butts in seats cause it's their first team up.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Valonqar

[TombRaider]

Lol at Ansel Elgort, he's irrelevant. He just got lucky

 

And I agree that DiCaprio is still #1, and he makes good movies at that. Dwayne Johnson is an embarrassment and its movies will be forgotten in 10 years

[HouseOfTheSun]

The Fresh Prince was the center of Hollywood for a long while. Rock is a nice side show. 

[baumer]

Guys I don't mean to be a fuddy duddy here but we have a thread for who is a draw and who isn't.  Can e just keep this one about DJ and Will?  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

The Fresh Prince was the center of Hollywood for a long while. Rock is a nice side show. 

 

I hardly think The Rock is a sideshow.  He's one of the biggest draws in the world right now and he is paid like one.

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I hardly think The Rock is a sideshow.  He's one of the biggest draws in the world right now and he is paid like one.

It’s all relative. The rock is known for his roles which  are all essentially similar. You know what you get when you watch a Rock film. Studios revolves around Will at one point. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

It’s all relative. The rock is known for his roles which  are all essentially similar. You know what you get when you watch a Rock film. Studios revolves around Will at one point. 

 

I agree with you about Smith being a bigger draw than The Rock.  I don't agree with you that The Rock is a sideshow.  

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I agree with you about Smith being a bigger draw than The Rock.  I don't agree with you that The Rock is a sideshow.  

Well that’s mostly because I think every actor is a sideshow other than many DiCaprio these days.