Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[Mekanos]

Homecoming was a July opener so not quite comparable with kids out of school. Not that IW can't recover, but it's a different scenario. 

[Chaz]

25 minutes ago, baumer said:

Way off topic but just finished watching the Pens Caps game.  Caps win!  Go Caps!

 

Now on the Jets and Preds series.....Carrie Underwood is so damn hot.  

I looooove her

[Belle]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Sad to see this happen.

 

We all know SMH's legs were killed by the 2nd weekend drop. 

I think the key difference is that homecoming had a weak August while IW has some heavy hitters in late May and June. 

 

I'm not saying it can't recover or that Infinity War will fall off a cliff from here on out. Just that it won't have the lack of competition later on in its run. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Belle

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Chaz said:

I looooove her

 

She's got a great voice, terrific legs and a beautiful face.  And she's married to a Canadian hockey player. 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Homecoming was a July opener so not quite comparable with kids out of school. Not that IW can't recover, but it's a different scenario. 

What is it recovering from exactly? It's going to easily out gross Age of Ultron and make over 1.5 billion worldwide. It's second weekend is going to be just fine. It is a stark raving success by all measures. It not having Black Panther legs is not exactly a shock. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Mekanos]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

What is it recovering from exactly? It's going to easily out gross Age of Ultron and make over 1.5 billion worldwide. It's second weekend is going to be just fine. It is a stark raving success by all measures.

Recovering from its drop in its legs... any ten year old can tell you it is a big success, I wasn't talking about that.

[Chewy]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

What is it recovering from exactly? It's going to easily out gross Age of Ultron and make over 1.5 billion worldwide. It's second weekend is going to be just fine. It is a stark raving success by all measures. It not having Black Panther legs is not exactly a shock. 

 

Nah ppl were posting in the opening weekend thread that it definitely had better WOM than Panther 

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Recovering from its drop in its legs... any ten year old can tell you it is a big success, I wasn't talking about that.

The drop will be reasonable. You are acting like it is headed for a BvS style 69% drop. Everything is not Wonder Woman. Everything is not Black Panther. Everything is not Guardians of the Galaxy. And that doubly applies to second sequels.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Mekanos said:

Recovering from its drop in its legs... any ten year old can tell you it is a big success, I wasn't talking about that.

 

But it doesn't need recovering.  It's going to drop 55-58% from a record opening weekend.  That's hardly something in line with a recovery.

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It can't get to 120mil if the 46-48mil numbers come to pass.

115 is tough unless sat goes higher than 48. would need sub-26% sunday drop to hit 115 with 48 sat

31.4+48+35.6 (-25.8%) = 115.0

[aabattery]

It's flying past Iron Man adjusted (392m). Tremendous success.

 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, A2k Raptor said:

115 is tough unless sat goes higher than 48. would need sub-26% sunday drop to hit 115 with 48 sat

31.4+48+35.6 (-25.8%) = 115.0

Yeah. When I crunched the numbers for the higher end I came away with 114mil.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

It's flying past Iron Man adjusted (392m). Tremendous success.

 

So I guess there was hype after all?

[Lordmandeep]

Um it's going for 1.8 billion locked and 1.9 to 2 billion based on China.

 

Ww is going beyond 90 percent of predictions...so it's no Ultron people!

Edited May 6, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Mekanos]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The drop will be reasonable. You are acting like it is headed for a BvS style 69% drop. Everything is not Wonder Woman. Everything is not Black Panther. Everything is not Guardians of the Galaxy. And that doubly applies to second sequels.

 

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But it doesn't need recovering.  It's going to drop 55-58% from a record opening weekend.  That's hardly something in line with a recovery.

Relatively speaking, guys. I mean recover to reach a 2.7x multiplier instead of a 2.5x.

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Um it's going for 1.8 billion locked and 1.9 to 2 billion based on China.

 

Ww is going beyond 90 percent of predictions...so it's no Ultron people!

It's over performing domestically as well. It's revisionist history to claim otherwise. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

115 is tough unless sat goes higher than 48. would need sub-26% sunday drop to hit 115 with 48 sat

31.4+48+35.6 (-25.8%) = 115.0

 

It could go higher though.  These are really early numbers from RTH.

[Lordmandeep]

I thought Ultron's All Time Record for highest grossing disappointment would never go down until today

Edited May 6, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

Thanks, I had no idea what crumbling means.  

 

I always like to preface this stuff by saying that I'm not a box office wiz.  I make my share of mistakes predicting and such.  But forecasting the future for a film like this one is a different story.

 

Here's the thing.  Everyone, or many here were looking at IW as though it was TFA.  I'm not sure why.  History has indicated that the legs on many of the sequels are not kind.  There's a massive audience for Marvel but it's not like it's an infinite one.  There's not a lot of new fans that are going to come out and see the 19th Marvel film that haven't seen the other 18.  So why would you think this would have legs similar to TFA.

 

All I heard about this film is that it would open higher than TFA and you guys were right.  But that's where it ends.  Many of these same voices were then expecting mammoth legs, like TFA.  But why?  TFA is a beast that you just can't really explain except to say that it's SW.  A Marvel film, even one as great as this one, never stood a chance of getting anywhere near SW or a 3X for that matter.  

 

IW is not crumbling.  It's going to do a massive and ridiculous 100 million plus in the second weekend.  Do you know how many films have done more than 100 million in the second weekend?  Four.  This will be the fifth.  You can't look at the opening weekend and be disappointed in the second weekend.  This had so much up front demand for it because it is a sequel and it is a film that is 10 years in the making.  The fact that it will probably fall less than 60% off of the record opening weekend, is fantastic.  There are too many unrealistic expectations of it, especially since the last three Marvel sequels featuring Iron Man have had horrible legs.  If this gets to 2.6X, it's bigger than what many of us thought it would get to.  So instead of focusing on your unrealistic expectations of it, just look at it based on the other films and you'll see it's an amazing number.  

 

The gross is fine, it's what some of you thought it would do....that's the problem.

Thanks, I’m perfectly aware that IW isn’t actually crumbling. It’s just a fun meme.     

 

My point was simply that a big OW is 0 evidence against crumbling, when you seemed to be listing it as though it was.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

I thought Ultron record for highest grossing disappointment would never go down until today

Domestic probably goes to The Las....yeah won't mention that film. Worldwide though I think Ultron's gross looks better in hindsight after seeing how only two (soon to be three) films have exceeded it since its release.