AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[nguyenkhoi282]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI part of wednesday(like for france) is part of weekend. Significant part of thursday(so many countries have 4 day weekend) is also part of weekend. few countries like Japan report 2 day weekend and so tiny part of friday is not part of weekend. But its not thu + weekend for sure.

 

Also take Korea. It crashed like 2/3 on thursday bcos wednesday was culture day. Japan also has special discount on wednesday and so thursday tanks a bit. So dont expect thursday to stay flat. Sorry for being Pedantic

The raw number of the weekend is too small now. Countries that include Wed or Thu will have minimal effect, a few hundreds K maybe.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

The raw number of the weekend is too small now. Countries that include Wed or Thu will have minimal effect, a few hundreds K maybe.

There was a @RtheEnd post breaking up how much % of countries report 5 day  vs 4 day vs 3 day vs 2 day. 4 day is not trivial(its like 1/4 of the countries if I am not wrong) including leggiest countries Brazil and Germany.

[Maximum Avery]

11 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Let me explain, so far it has grossed 6.6M for Mon-Tue-Wed, 2.2M each, so just say 2.2 as well for Thu to get 1.890B entering the weekend. That's 8.5M weekdays. EG is shown on Mojo as 1.883B by last Sunday (not including Mon), so what if the similar thing happen with IW (skewed weekdays as Mon is excluded). So it's more fair if i only use Tue-Wed-Thu for EG, which is 6.6M vs 4M of IW. 

Ok thank god is nba halftime... your numbers are off.. check again

 

TTVOMJ

[nguyenkhoi282]

12 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

Didnt we just extrapolate that sunday number was 1881m? Are we again back on square one?:'(

 

TTVOMJ

I know. But my comp is IW, which could have gone through the same thing on BOM (weekend + monday = total by Sunday). Otherwise, EG is doubling IW pace at the same point.

[nguyenkhoi282]

8 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

Ok thank god is nba halftime... your numbers are off.. check again

 

TTVOMJ

Which one? I mean i sure did a lot of calculations so maybe i miss sth.

[Maximum Avery]

6 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Which one? I mean i sure did a lot of calculations so maybe i miss sth.

Everything adds up if you go by 1881m by sunday... 1883 monday... 1890m by thursday... so i guess fix 1883 by sunday without monday to 1881m if you want 4x 2m mon-tue-wed-thu to be exactly 1890m from "1883m".. omg enough of 8s xD nba!^^

 

TTVOMJ

Edited May 31, 2019 by Maximum Avery
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[danhtruong5]

36 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I think it can top 2.720B by Sunday.

 

Domestic will probably be about 817-818M

OS-China will be at 1.902-1.903B

Let me explain, so far it has grossed 6.6M for Mon-Tue-Wed, 2.2M each, so just say 2.2 as well for Thu to get 1.890B entering the weekend. That's 8.5M weekdays. During the same period last year, Infinity War made 4M and got 10M for the weekend. Here is where things get complicated. EG is shown on Mojo as 1.883B by last Sunday (not including Mon), so what if the similar thing happened with IW (skewed weekdays as Mon was excluded). So it's more fair if i only use Tue-Wed-Thu for EG, which is 6.6M vs 4M of IW. 

Where will the weekend land then? 10/4 = 250%. Assuming competition drag EG down to 200%, that's 13.2M. I fail to see otherwise.

 

Or take it this way, OS Thu-Weekend multi ratio has always fall around 5-6x. Assuming 2M for Thursday, that's 10-12M. 

 

Dom + OS Weekend should be around 20-21M

6.6M = Mon to Wed or Mon to Thu? Because the BOM reported as of 30/5 for the OS

Edited May 31, 2019 by danhtruong5

[keysersoze123]

it will be till wednesday.

[Legion Again]

I’ve got a perfect prediction for Sun total. You all can guess, and I’ll reveal in 4 days.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

What's the number? What are we talking? Also theaters =/= screens and showings. Theaters are important, screens are even more important and showings, well it's no use having 1000 theaters if each of those only shows your movie on 1 screen that has just 1 showing every day.

 

The theater count drop is, as you might have guessed, mostly from smaller cities across the country with smaller multiplexes that don't have enough screens for all the movies still in theaters and those coming this weekend. Those markets are generally a small percentage of grosses, so you shouldn't worry about those too much.

Lost 700 theaters, way below IW total for this weekend. Pikachu which is plummeting somehow didn't lose way more screens. Does not bode well for the future. Expecting more massive drops for screen counts incoming.

[ZattMurdock]

Just WOW at these OS-C numbers. HOLY SHIT. 

[anti-Pedantic]

Charlie said, 2.2M Monday OS-China.

I just calculated each and every country from various sources here till 26th Weekend.  Total till Sunday comes 15.84M, If you add 2.2 to that It becomes 18M, not 17.1m. So most probably 17.1 is just till Sunday and has included few more territories whose total isn't there on BOMojo.

 

Brazil- 1.83 (via Beelzebub) - Mon not included

Japan -1.3 (via Corpse) - Mon not included

UK- 1.13 (via Olive) - Mon not included

SK- 1.26 (via Kofic)-  Mon not included

Germany -1.33 (Not sure about this one- it said from 22-26)

Australia- 1.05

France- 1.029

Mexico - 843k

Spain - 505.8k

Taiwan -422k

Argentina - 372K

Hongkong- 312K

Russia - 300k

 

These all numbers similar to BOMojo numbers.

 

Totalling these all numbers, we get 15.78M (None included Monday)

If you check this: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2019W21&id=marvel2019.htm ---> total comes around 15.84M

 

So, People who are including 2.2M Monday are being hasty and those not including can be wrong too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Juby]

2 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I think it can top 2.720B by Sunday.

 

Domestic will probably be about 817-818M

 

Hold on here.

 

It's $806.55 till Wednesday. With strong Thursday it migh be at $807.8M. Do You thnik this weekend will be almost $10 million? With -700 theaters lost? After strong Memorial Day weekend hold? And with Godzilla, Rocketman and Ma on the horizont? 

 

$816.5M Domestic after the weekend seems like a reasonable target here. +$7.5M OS = ~$2.712B worldwide after the weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

I'm in complete shock how well it's holding compared with Infinity War at same period of time. If the domestic can not crumble and at least keep it close enough to Infinity War, Avatar is going down with no need for a expansion, imho. 

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Hold on here.

 

It's $806.55 till Wednesday. With strong Thursday it migh be at $807.8M. Do You thnik this weekend will be almost $10 million? With -700 theaters lost? After strong Memorial Day weekend hold? And with Godzilla, Rocketman and Ma on the horizont? 

 

$816.5M Domestic after the weekend seems like a reasonable target here. +$7.5M OS = ~$2.712B worldwide after the weekend.

I don't think you are looking at what Endgame is doing during the OS-C weekdays based on the estimates.  It's not making just making$7.5m OS-C after doing $17.1m OS-C last weekend and behaving like it's behaving during these weekdays. 

 

Also, don't count domestic down just yet. 3.105 theaters ins't a small size of theaters at this point in time at all. If it can keep the pace close to Infinity War, Avatar is going down without an expansion. 

Edited May 31, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[danhtruong5]

13 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Hold on here.

 

It's $806.55 till Wednesday. With strong Thursday it migh be at $807.8M. Do You thnik this weekend will be almost $10 million? With -700 theaters lost? After strong Memorial Day weekend hold? And with Godzilla, Rocketman and Ma on the horizont? 

 

$816.5M Domestic after the weekend seems like a reasonable target here. +$7.5M OS = ~$2.712B worldwide after the weekend.

Another more than 50% drop for the OS this weekend? 

[nguyenkhoi282]

21 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Another more than 50% drop for the OS this weekend? 

Why would you guys only look at the raw percetage drop from weekend-to-weekend while we have weekdays data available? Nothing indicates that it would go below 10M this weekend, at all. 

Edited May 31, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[danhtruong5]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Why would you guys only look at the raw percetage drop from weekend-to-weekend while we have weekdays data available? Nothing indicates that it would go below 10M this weekend, at all. 

If that's OS is 1887 till Wed, maybe?

But if it already included Thur,.... ? 

 

[nguyenkhoi282]

15 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

If that's OS is 1887 till Wed, maybe?

But if it already included Thur,.... ? 

 

Mojo NEVER predict OS weekdays. That is studio estimation, not prediction (studio never predict anything other than OW).

Even if it included Thu, still good. My previous estimation was 1887.5 by Thu and 1.900 by Sun. Already exceeded that.

Edited May 31, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Mojo NEVER predict OS weekdays. That is studio estimation, not prediction (studio never predict anything other than OW)

Studio estimate sunday OS on Sunday morning (Domestic time) pretty much every week?

Edited May 31, 2019 by NCsoft