AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Finnick]

As much as I want AEG to cross Avatar. Disney excess are not thinking the same. They are building a strong relation with JC and they surely make sure not to try to prefer anymovie over his. If AEG beat Avatar with its actual run (which is impossible now) no one will complain. Any tentative to push AEG to do that will hurt JC.  Disney already have a strong relation with JC company and they have a 4 miga movies to make. They will be very happy if Avatar 2 makes $3B. As of now I think they might greenlight a sequel to Alita just to deepen the relation with JC.

[AndyChrono]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$824,365,940	30.2%
+ Foreign:	$1,906,200,000	69.8%
= Worldwide:	$2,730,565,940

Called it.

On 6/6/2019 at 12:47 PM, AndyChrono said:

Because the week to week drops are too big. Same reason why if you add 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + .... you never actually reach 1. Also, OS will be more like 1906 after the weekend.

Now that another Sunday has come around, let's run the numbers again on our geometric series model. Last, Sunday's actuals ended up at $1,898,410,253. That means the OS-China number for the 7 days ending June 2nd was $14,954,203.

 

Using that $1,906,200,000 estimate, that means Endgame grossed roughly $7,789,757 from OS-China for the 7 days ending June 9th. This is a -47.9% week over week drop which I believe is the first sub-50% drop in it's entire run. Endgame actually outperformed the model very slightly this week, but it's still close enough that it remains a useful predictor. This puts the new OS soft-cap at 1.914b. If it continues to hold at the -47.9% it held for this week instead of 50%, then that net's it about another 850k. So we thus have a range around 1.914-1.915b for OS soft-cap.

 

Domestically, Endgame has unfortunately started to trail Infinity War dailies significantly. EG's 7th weekend is actually below IW 8th weekend even after accounting for Father's Day. IW made another 14.5m after it's 8th weekend. If EG follows a similar path then that get's a final range around 835-840m.

 

Final WW gross: 2.749b - 2.755b

 

That is actually the disputed range for whatever the #1 first release gross is! So it seems we can all look forward to another couple hundred pages of fan wars...

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Called it.

Now that another Sunday has come around, let's run the numbers again on our geometric series model. Last, Sunday's actuals ended up at $1,898,410,253. That means the OS-China number for the 7 days ending June 2nd was $14,954,203.

 

Using that $1,906,200,000 estimate, that means Endgame grossed roughly $7,789,757 from OS-China for the 7 days ending June 9th. This is a -47.9% week over week drop which I believe is the first sub-50% drop in it's entire run. Endgame actually outperformed the model very slightly this week, but it's still close enough that it remains a useful predictor. This puts the new OS soft-cap at 1.914b. If it continues to hold at the -47.9% it held for this week instead of 50%, then that net's it about another 850k. So we thus have a range around 1.914-1.915b for OS soft-cap.

 

Domestically, Endgame has unfortunately started to trail Infinity War dailies significantly. EG's 7th weekend is actually below IW 8th weekend even after accounting for Father's Day. IW made another 14.5m after it's 8th weekend. If EG follows a similar path then that get's a final range around 835-840m.

 

Final WW gross: 2.749b - 2.755b

 

That is actually the disputed range for whatever the #1 first release gross is! So it seems we can all look forward to another couple hundred pages of fan wars...

yeah Final WW gross will be in this range $2.750 To $2.755  ... means Avatar OS gross ($2.02 B) is also safe ...

[nguyenkhoi282]

Actuals will probably increase again. From now on, competition will be less fierce than Infinity War's. IW added another 3.5x its 7th OS-China weekend, assuming 4.3M for EG, that's 15M more, meaning 1.920B.

 

Domestically, following IW sharply would translate into 640M. However, i'd like to think that the upcoming influx of Disney releases like Toy Story 4, Far From Home and The Lion King will help it add another 5M or so. 

 

So, i'm thinking 2.760-2.770B.

[cdsacken]

55 minutes ago, MattW said:

I don't think it's in Disney's interest to get Endgame up to #1 worldwide. Endgame has already made its money, Avatar 2 hasn't yet and it's still very much up in the air just how much the public will welcome its return. Being able to promote Avatar as the biggest movie in the history of ever is worth quite a bit I would say. 

 

Endgame ends at 2755-2760.

If Avatar 2 fails for #1 then Disney will have to wait a decade to reach it.

[cdsacken]

So unless EG does exactly what Avatar does and re release it sure. Again why would they not?

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If Avatar 2 fails for #1 then Disney will have to wait a decade to reach it.

thats what i am saying

[cdsacken]

It was genius to delay. Exchange rates will suck next year.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

It was genius to delay. Exchange rates will suck next year.

?

[Sunny Max]

Just now, cdsacken said:

It was genius to delay. Exchange rates will suck next year.

but still Avatar2 has a chance ... Brand value Of jim & Huge Success of Avatar will help a lot 

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

but still Avatar2 has a chance ... Brand value Of jim & Huge Success of Avatar will help a lot 

No doubt 1.5-3.5 range. 4b is just as likely as 1.2

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

?

US recession by 2020 or 2021. Rates would still be unfavorable like today for 2020 release.

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, thenerdal said:

But that was 3 million extra though. This is going to be a 30 million gap. An expansion is 100% not getting that much. 

It's not going to be as high as 30 million away.....

Furthermore, it will be close to or have surpassed what AVATAR made in it's initial run before it re-released. 

"By the end of its first theatrical release Avatar had grossed $749,766,139 in the U.S. and Canada, and $1,999,298,189 in other territories, for a worldwide total of $2,749,064,328"

 

It made 10 million more DOM and 22 million more Internationally. 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avatarspecialedition.htm

Again, I'm not saying Disney is GOING to do this, I'm saying IF they commit to it they will be able to push it past. 

There is precedence and there if Disney's distribution muscle. 

We can argue all we want about the unknown of whether or not a re-release will happen and neither side has any more proof than the other. 

 

However, it's much harder to argue that a re-release couldn't add 30 million onto the total. 

There is past evidence and precedence that says otherwise. 

I do prefer arguments that are based in numbers and facts compared to those based solely on opinion.

Edited June 9, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

No doubt 1.5-3.5 range. 4b is just as likely as 1.2

$3 B+  (if all goes well)    

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, Finnick said:

As much as I want AEG to cross Avatar. Disney excess are not thinking the same. They are building a strong relation with JC and they surely make sure not to try to prefer anymovie over his. If AEG beat Avatar with its actual run (which is impossible now) no one will complain. Any tentative to push AEG to do that will hurt JC.  Disney already have a strong relation with JC company and they have a 4 miga movies to make. They will be very happy if Avatar 2 makes $3B. As of now I think they might greenlight a sequel to Alita just to deepen the relation with JC.

 

Is there any factual evidence that Disney is so afraid to upset JC that they will ensure Avatar stays at #1?

[Finnick]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Is there any factual evidence that Disney is so afraid to upset JC that they will ensure Avatar stays at #1?

It is just  business and mutual interest. They all care about making more money and they are both smart.  They dont want  to make steps that poisen their relationship. No one is afraid of the other. They just want to benefit from each other.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Finnick said:

It is just  business and mutual interest. They all care about making more money and they are both smart.  They dont want  to make steps that poisen their relationship. No one is afraid of the other. They just want to benefit from each other.

and what if avatar 2 fails to top avatar 1 hm ? then disney will have waste a opportunity, and also you put way too much significant on this, james cameron doest not care , and he will have nothing to do with this, cameron needs disney as they will give the money for the avatar sequels, not the opposite

Edited June 9, 2019 by john2000

[VanillaSkies]

11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

US recession by 2020 or 2021. Rates would still be unfavorable like today for 2020 release.

Hard to predict. 

The US stock market has shown signs of recession since December 2018, and with the current unpredictability of the Trade Wars causing global uncertainty, it is quite possible any recession that hits will be global and not just US. It might keeps the rates of exchange relatively the same. 

 

But again, it's so unpredictable. 

Anything can happen. 

Delaying a film simply to try and capture a better exchange rate is just too risky, and quite frankly, the long the delay, the more audiences might have moved on to other properties. 

 

We can't deny that outside of MCU, sequels haven't exactly been on fire lately. 

Lego Movie 2, Godzilla 2, Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Fantastic Beasts 2...

Audiences sometimes tire on a fanchise, and a 10 year+ gap is a long time.

We'll see. 

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, Finnick said:

It is just  business and mutual interest. They all care about making more money and they are both smart.  They dont want  to make steps that poisen their relationship. No one is afraid of the other. They just want to benefit from each other.

That would be idiotic. Take #1, re release Avatar to build hype in early 2021 to take back #1.