AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Claudio]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

It's not so hard to miss it. Well, it wasn't based on a 1.78B total thru Thursday, but since actuals are at 1.786B it's certainly more difficult now.

 

Main reason for projecting a sub-2.2B total on Sunday is past evidence for highly hyped movies: it looks like most of the times something goes wrong (ex. low Friday rise) and the numbers, while great, feel a little underwhelming. Additional reason is that using IW's behaviour on 2nd weekend OS-China, the 3-day Fri-Sun gross for EG (assuming a 42/43M OS-Ch Thursday) could easily go under 200M.

 

My maths actually gave me 2.22B from a 1.78B projection (my gut said otherwise). Using the actual figure, it's 2.23B. We'll see how much of a weekend movie it is.

I'm confused. Isn't it easier when the actuals came at $1.786B than $1.78B? That's $6M more it could miss during this weekend and still made over $2.2B. I mean $1.786B actual is better than $1.78B but why did you say it will become more difficult?

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Claudio said:

I'm confused. Isn't it easier when the actuals came at $1.786B than $1.78B? That's $6M more it could miss during this weekend and still made over $2.2B. I mean $1.786B actual is better than $1.78B but why did you say it will become more difficult?

We were talking about the OS-C gross FSS going below $200m. Now that we have an extra $6m it won't go below $200m OS-C this weekend for sure so in that sense it just got harder to go below 200m 😛 

[Claudio]

12 minutes ago, pepsa said:

We were talking about the OS-C gross FSS going below $200m. Now that we have an extra $6m it won't go below $200m OS-C this weekend for sure so in that sense it just got harder to go below 200m 😛 

Ahhhh. I see. A little misunderstood there. I thought you're talking about can it miss $2.2B WW this weekend lol. Forgive me , brother.😅

[expensiveho]

In Colombia, as of May 1st, Endgame had 3.07m admissions (over 500k above the industry estimates) beating IW previous first week record of 2.17m admissions.

 

It also beats lifetime total (Adm, LC & $) of Avatar. 

 

It was also reported that May 1st was the biggest day in Colombia, beating April 27th record (so EG's biggest day might have been that day, or at least really close to Saturday)

Edited May 3, 2019 by expensiveho

[nguyenkhoi282]

Vietnam 7-day opening week is $10M (232B VND), already +20% all-time record ($8.3M - 192B). Heading for $15M (345B) finish, +80% all-time

Edited May 4, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Quigley said:

OS-Ch dropped from $83.4M on Wed (May Day) to $49.9M on Thu. That is a 40.2% drop.

• Infinity War dropped 50.0%
• Marvel's the Avengers dropped 51.3%
• Iron Man 3 dropped 54.6% (for this calculation, I have removed China which opened on May 1 and Russia which opened on May 2)

Dunno if it's a fluke, but seems amazing to me.

They underestimated May 1st. Thursday shall be around $90mn (OS-C $41mn) while Wednesday around $164mn (OS-C $89mn)

[bladels]

8 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

That's inaccurate. Add another 11%.

Yes, it only counted for major theater chains so it can be off but that's all I have

Edited May 4, 2019 by bladels

[pepsa]

Btw @Omni might be right. OS-China yesterday was 'only' $41m than we would see something like $192m OS-China + $70.5m from China and $150m DOM. This would give $2198.3m after this weekend. Btw this isn't certain, could down or up, it has some room to grow but let's wait and see how DOM turns out. 

[Nakamura]

 

Wait, Thursday May 1 OS-China = 50 or 41

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nakamura

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

 

Wait, Thursday May 1 OS-China = 50 or 41

Thursday may 2 would be 41m going by charlie, he said they underestimated Wednesday 1 may and the actuals for may 1st were higher and they just added it to the Thursday cume. 

[Nakamura]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Thursday may 2 would be 41m going by charlie, he said they underestimated Wednesday 1 may and the actuals for may 1st were higher and they just added it to the Thursday cume. 

So any prediction for the weekend of OS- china?

I dont know how the number for the OS-china works? Is it similar to DOM? big jump on friday, continue to higher on saturday and lower on sunday?

[Quigley]

8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

They underestimated May 1st. Thursday shall be around $90mn (OS-C $41mn) while Wednesday around $164mn (OS-C $89mn)

 

38 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Thursday may 2 would be 41m going by charlie, he said they underestimated Wednesday 1 may and the actuals for may 1st were higher and they just added it to the Thursday cume. 

Where is the evidence for this? In previous occasions where they underestimated a specific daily gross, they usually announce the new total gross [in this case, up to Thu] and the latest daily gross [in this case, Thu]. By subtracting the two, we would notice that the total by Wednesday was higher. In the case of Endgame, this didn't happen. 1,311.8-100=1,211.8. This is the number that was reported after Wedensday's grosses were factored in, so there is no change from their previous estimate.

 

OS Thu is $100M.

OS-Ch is $49.9M.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

Where is the evidence for this? In previous occasions where they underestimated a specific daily gross, they usually announce the new total gross [in this case, up to Thu] and the latest daily gross [in this case, Thu]. By subtracting the two, we would notice that the total by Wednesday was higher. In the case of Endgame, this didn't happen. 1,311.8-100=1,211.8. This is the number that was reported after Wedensday's grosses were factored in, so there is no change from their previous estimate.

 

OS Thu is $100M.

OS-Ch is $49.9M.

There isn't any evidence as in official if you will demand that but,

I am maintaining main country wise daily gross and $100mn doesn't make sense with sort of drop from May 1st film had in individual countries.

 

[Lordmandeep]

Saturday will be interesting

 

Based on my local theater this is only going down by a third from last Saturday.

 

But idk maybe just this place.

[Nakamura]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Saturday will be interesting

 

Based on my local theater this is only going down by a third from last Saturday.

 

But idk maybe just this place.

Good or bad sign?

[Nakamura]

14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

There isn't any evidence as in official if you will demand that but,

I am maintaining main country wise daily gross and $100mn doesn't make sense with sort of drop from May 1st film had in individual countries.

 

Your prediction for OS- China this weekend? 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Your prediction for OS- China this weekend? 

220

[Nakamura]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

 

IW did 32.2 on thurs then weekend = 162 (x5)

Applying the same x5 for EG, with 41 on thurs, we get 205???

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

220

 

[Moses]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

220

What about final os-china?

Will it hit 1300

[cdsacken]

30 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Good or bad sign?

A 35% drop from last Saturday is 71 million that would be outrageous. Hell a 40% drop is fantastic!

Edited May 4, 2019 by cdsacken