BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Depends on the perspective, I have it doing around 1.1 billion so dropping 1/3 of the first film is quite bad both in percentages and absolute numbers (way over 500 million drop) plus, but that’s a personal opinion, I think it will have poisoned the well for the third film with its bad reviews and what I believe will be bad wom.

 

Very badly reviewed film that has a huge drop from the previous one, I fail to see the positives other than the cliche “universal will make a profit” . I mean if universal was to loose money from the sequel to a 1.7 billion film for which it spent nearly 400 million $$ (production+marketing budget and this thing had an extremely intense marketing campaign even more intense than deadpool2) then it would have been a catastrophy for the studio that isn’t exactly swimming in huge blockbusters.

 

 

 

Haven't you noticed that you use the term bad or very bad quite often?  It makes me wonder if at times, you are just expecting too much.  

[That One Girl]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

It wasn't green lit at that budget. I think the original budget was $60m.  It only got that huge because the director is a madman and the people financing it gave him way too much rope and too much money.

 

I know, but if that budget stayed the same the film probably would've been completely different (maybe even a Snowman situation if worst comes to worst).  Revenant is one of my favorite cases in terms of "messy and troubling production that went way overbudget but hey it was a big hit."  The best one is obviously Titanic.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, The Futurist said:

No Asgardian.

#NotAnEventMovie

Sorry Dinos Freaks.

 

He's just waking up right now.

[ThomasNicole]

expecting $ 26 - 27M for I2 and $ 90M for the weekend

 

JW should do $ 140M, probably will not cross $ 400M, huge drop... but still it'll do a billion worldwide, so who cares

[Cap]

Just finished rewatching The Land Before Time. Such a good film!

[Mulder]

Always makes me laugh when people use CinemaScore over stuff like RT Audience Ratings.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I know, but if that budget stayed the same the film probably would've been completely different (maybe even a Snowman situation if worst comes to worst).  Revenant is one of my favorite cases in terms of "messy and troubling production that went way overbudget but hey it was a big hit."  The best one is obviously Titanic.

It was a sizable hit.  Would have been big if not for the budget.    The director being out of control doesn't mean they couldn't have made the movie with an in control director or the same director with a stronger producer to keep him in line for a reasonable price.  The shit he pulled was stupid and expensive and worse dangerous and unnecessary.

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Haven't you noticed that you use the term bad or very bad quite often?  It makes me wonder if at times, you are just expecting too much.  

50% at RT (43% top critics) is very bad. Around 600 million less worldwide than the previous film is very bad. Having almost zero chance to reach 400 million in the U.S is very bad. I am sorry but for certain films there are specific expectations and most people were laughing at the thought of this doing less than 400 million in the U.S , a month ago , let alone a year ago.

 

The thing with me is that I am stubborn and don’t change my tune just to sugarcoat things saying one thing one day and the opposite the next. It doesn’t even have to do with my personal feelings about a movie (or a book or a music album or whatever) , I was called a troll in inifinity war threads because , after its grand worldwide first weekend, I had higher expectations and thought that it would perform even better than what it did. Now that’s a movie that I watched five times at the theaters but I never started gushing over it’s bo results despite them being actually very impressive. You won’t see me celebrating if A4, for example, does 1.5 billion WW cause it “will have turned a profit”. 

 

Most people here , and that’s very obvious one look at the posts is enough, have huge expectations for films they support, become extremely aggressive to support their expectations (one look at the various clubs is enough) and when these expectations aren’t met they change their tune so that they can be happy. Sorry but,  for better or for worse, that’s not me.

[Webslinger]

I'm still amazed that The Revenant did so well. Even with Leo's track record, a moody, violent, two-and-a-half-hour drama is a tough sell. Given all that he endured in the making of the film, I also get why DiCaprio has taken a long hiatus since then.

 

As for Jurassic World: a retention rate in line with that of Fate of the Furious after Furious 7 wouldn't be great, but it wouldn't be disastrous. Jurassic World was such a surprise smash that a big drop kinda felt inevitable from the very start.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Webslinger

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

50% at RT (43% top critics) is very bad. Around 600 million less worldwide than the previous film is very bad. Having almost zero chance to reach 400 million in the U.S is very bad. I am sorry but for certain films there are specific expectations and most people were laughing at the thought of this doing less than 400 million in the U.S , a month ago , let alone a year ago.

 

The thing with me is that I am stubborn and don’t change my tune just to sugarcoat things saying one thing one day and the opposite the next. It doesn’t even have to do with my personal feelings about a movie (or a book or a music album or whatever) , I was called a troll in inifinity war threads because , after its grand worldwide first weekend, I had higher expectations and thought that it would perform even better than what it did. Now that’s a movie that I watched five times at the theaters but I never started gushing over it’s bo results despite them being actually very impressive. You won’t see me celebrating if A4, for example, does 1.5 billion WW cause it “will have turned a profit”. 

 

Most people here , and that’s very obvious one look at the posts is enough, have huge expectations for films they support, become extremely aggressive to support their expectations (one look at the various clubs is enough) and when these expectations aren’t met they change their tune so that they can be happy. Sorry but,  for better or for worse, that’s not me.

 

Well, no offense then, but I think you don't get the box office completely if you think every film in the series is going to perform at the same level as the last one.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I'm still amazed that The Revenant did so well. Even with Leo's track record, a moody, violent, two-and-a-half-hour drama is a tough sell. Given all that he endured in the making of the film, I also get why DiCaprio has taken a long hiatus since then.

 

Leo is rich beyond belief and besides that he is also involved in a tonnnnne of humanitarian things.  Making movies is what he does so that he can pursue the things he does.  So him taking time between movies is more about what else he is doing in the real world.

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Yeah, no one said that but go ahead and make up your own narrative to rail against along with the other bullshit you're dragging into this.

I'm a black woman and not a self hating one. "These people" meaning obsessive Disney fans.

 

You saying that "nobody said that" and yet I keep seeing people say that. I have no choice but to infer that others are implying a billion when they claim that December would have saved it. That's what all of the other Star Wars movies released in December did.  Be specific, how much do you think that Solo would have done in December? Also why is Star Wars the only series that can't survive outside of December according to fanboys?

Edited June 23, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Thrylos 7]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Well, no offense then, but I think you don't get the box office completely if you think every film in the series is going to perform at the same level as the last one.  

You know what ? Look at the forum member picores who is “laughing” at my post. The same guy was predicting at least 950 million overseas for JW2 and an easy over 400 million in the U.S. Now he is celebrating in this thread cause “Dinos are kicking ass” 

 

I get the box office just fine, there are a ton of franchises that have been very consistent up until one point at least and don’t drop 35% worldwide with their first sequel. Do i need to start naming them ? People were loosing their minds over a 7% worldwide drop for AOU.

[baumer]

Oh, and for the record, when I say you @Thrylos 7 don't get the box office completely, that is not to imply that I do.  I am constantly misreading things and thinking a movie will do something that it doesn't.  The box office has it's patterns but it's also very unforgiving to most....just when you think you have something figured out, you get a monkey in the wrench like A Quiet Place making almost 200 million or a film like Black Panther blowing every expectation out of the water with 700 million.  Basically, none of us really knows anything.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Seeing Fallen Kingdom in a couple of hours. If it's bad it better be bad in an entertaining way. Can't have a boring dinosaur film.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

I'm still amazed that The Revenant did so well. Even with Leo's track record, a moody, violent, two-and-a-half-hour drama is a tough sell. Given all that he endured in the making of the film, I also get why DiCaprio has taken a long hiatus since then.

 

As for Jurassic World: a retention rate in line with that of Fate of the Furious after Furious 7 wouldn't be great, but it wouldn't be disastrous. Jurassic World was such a surprise smash that a big drop kinda felt inevitable from the very start.

It was unique in that the brutality and length of the shoot and what Leo endured became it's own year long marketing campaign and mainly why he won the Oscar cause it wasn't for the great acting.  Justice for Trembly!

 

FF8 was also expected since FF7 was such an enormous jump from FF6 because of Paul Walker's death.  It mostly reverted to norm.   I expected about the same drop for JW because the first came after such a length and the domestic was so big but this is a slightly bigger than expected drop, domestic & O/S.

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'm a black woman and not a self hating one. These people meaning obsessive Disney fans. You saying that "nobody said that" and yet I keep seeing people say that.

Literally no one said that solo will do a billion in December. And only one person named water said that awit will do more if not for racists. And everyone disagreed with that poster. So yes, you are making a situation that does not even exist.

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Literally no one said that solo will do a billion in December. And only one person named water said that awit will do more if not for racists. And everyone disagreed with that poster. So yes, you are making a situation that does not even exist.

You got me on the first thing but until someone puts out some numbers I'm still going to assume a billion.

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

Oh, and for the record, when I say you @Thrylos 7 don't get the box office completely, that is not to imply that I do.  I am constantly misreading things and thinking a movie will do something that it doesn't.  The box office has it's patterns but it's also very unforgiving to most....just when you think you have something figured out, you get a monkey in the wrench like A Quiet Place making almost 200 million or a film like Black Panther blowing every expectation out of the water with 700 million.  Basically, none of us really knows anything.

I am terrible at predicting bo and I have said so many times. That doesn’t mean that I will sugarcoat things, I am just presenting facts. For this particular film the bad reviews and the huge drop worldwide are a fact , not an opinion and again no matter what you or I say the posts of what people were predicting are very easy to find and read , I really don’t see how there can be an arguement about this, THE POSTS ARE RIGHT IN THIS FORUM (sorry for yelling).

 

 

[bladels]

IW did freaking $2B WW, +$500M from TA, +$600M from AOU, +$900M from CW and Thrylos still find a way to be disappointed so don't argue with him about JW2