BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[JB33]

$140.1M would be exactly a F7 to FotF opening weekend drop. Universal's massive 2015 domestically was the peak for their franchises, sadly. Also consider DM3's drop from both DM2 and MINIONS.

 

$140M would be a solid number for FK but it's still disappointing because I really thought the Jurassic franchise was an untouchable IP along with Marvel and Star Wars. 

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

No one is trying to deny that Fallen Kingdom dropped quite a bit from its predecessor, but people were expecting that.  This doesn't change the fact that you were still quite off on your prediction.

 

I also remember when you were laughing at me for going with DHD's early estimates for Infinity War, yet that's exactly what you're doing now when you give your 130-135M range  

And I said I wasn't wrong about what I said yesterday where in this thread? Lol, what exactly do you want from me? 130m really isn't some number to be celebrating for FK where I should be knee deep in crow because it did so well. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (2018)

 

Brief comps:

 

Jurassic Park - A

Lost World: Jurassic Park - B+

Jurassic Park III - B-

Jurassic World - A

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

$140.1M would be exactly a F7 to FotF opening weekend drop. Universal's massive 2015 domestically was the peak for their franchises, sadly. Also consider DM3's drop from both DM2 and MINIONS.

 

$140M would be a solid number for FK but it's still disappointing because I really thought the Jurassic franchise was an untouchable IP along with Marvel and Star Wars. 

No franchise is untouchable, even Star Wars as we saw last month. Marvel had their second movie flop and if they have enough movies with bad WOM it'll happen to them again... but probably not for a while.

[Thrylos 7]

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

[Mekanos]

A- makes me think ~2.5x legs, just a gut feeling. Maybe 2.4x. Pretty much anywhere in the 300-350M range as a finish. 

[That One Girl]

Just now, Thrylos 7 said:

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

 

You seem quite angry over some funny book movies.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

Or, ya know, you guys could just own your bad calls, like mature people. We know $130M or so would be a big drop from JW. But that's not the point. Some if you were adamant would be even bigger!

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

I have over a dozen of failed clubs here (seriously look some of them up) but I own up to my miscalculations.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

We had Spidey Homecoming too after June. Almost forgot that one.

 

Yeah, Venom has an outside shot for sure. I expect it to come close but short. Nothing else aside from Ralph 2 will even come close.

Nah, something always surprises...I think there are a few movies, some even original/"premiere" concepts, that if they pull off a great marketing campaign (to go with their 1st good trailers) and they "have the goods" quality wise, could still get to $100M OW this year...

[WrathOfHan]

Bohemian Rhapsody over 100M OW 🤔

[filmlover]

Wait Tree is banned a whole year?!

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I have over a dozen of failed clubs here (seriously look some of them up) but I own up to my miscalculations.

I do this quite often myself, but it seems some here tend to want my soul and first born whenever I'm wrong lmao. 

 

10 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

Dude, not that I don't appreciate your readiness to jump to my defenses, but maybe take it down a few notches lol.

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Or, ya know, you guys could just own your bad calls, like mature people. We know $130M or so would be a big drop from JW. But that's not the point. Some if you were adamant would be even bigger!

First of all I never predicted under 100 million ow or whatever,my only prediction has been 1.1 billion WW and I stand by it. Secondly we get it, 1-2 folks thought it would open very bad in the U.S and it didn’t , so what ? We have had a gazillion posts here by people that have been ridiculously wrong in the very recent past, trying to get some kind of revenge or whatever, people that were seeing a “tight race WW between IW and JW2” and were making fun of anyone predicting great results for IW in general, do I really have to dig up these ridiculous posts ?

 

We get it , movieman89 was wrong now move on , it’s not like JW2 is  lighting up the box office or is having amazing reviews or whatever. Seriously half of the posts here are about the 1-2people that predicted wrong , if we start doing that in every thread there won’t be any discussion at all.

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

and of course there's still mortal engines

Hey, I'll join you there...even if it doesn't go big, its 1st trailer had a very epic feel to me...and it reminded me of the wonder I had watching FOTR (Fellowship) the 1st time in a trailer...those kind of feelings from a trailer tend to push folks into ticket buying (and I don't even like "machine" type movies, of course I don't like Tolkien either, and bought in to all 3 of those - thanks Peter Jackson:)...

[YM!]

Beasts 2, Ant Man 2 and Venom have the best chance at an $100M+ OW but all look like longshots. Beasts 2 might suffer as Beasts 1 didn’t have people craving more, AM2 needs way too big of a jump and arguably opening after two big movies with the same target audience might hurt, and Venom although trailer views has been impressive depends largely on quality, if it is shit, it’s toast.

 

Grinch killed it chance after shitty trailer, Halloween needs more buzz, Ralph 2 and Poppins have a five day, and Aquaman has too much competition.

Edited June 23, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Blankments]

as a random sidenote, when I was at work today, I heard a TV spot for Incredibles 2 on the television set up and it immediately took me back to my childhood, remembering watching cartoons and seeing commercials for the first one. Crazy what little things can give you big nostalgia.

[vc2002]

TA2 used to be slammed for its drop from TA, but after TLJ and JW2, we can appreciate that both its OW and DOM drop is actually the smallest.

 

            TA        TA2
OW    207m    191m   -7.73%
DOM  623m    459m  -26.32%
   
           TFA        TLJ
OW    247m     220m  -10.93%
DOM  936m     620m  -33.76%
   
              JW      JW2
OW      208m    135m  -35.10%
DOM   652m    360m  -44.79%

[filmlover]

I don't think we'll have a $100M+ the rest of the year looking at the slate tbh.

 

Which means all the more reason to believe Brie Larson is gonna wreck shit up early next year.

 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Beasts 2, Ant Man 2 and Venom have the best chance at an $100M+ OW but all look like longshots. Beasts 2 might suffer as Beasts 1 didn’t have people craving more, AM2 needs way too big of a jump and arguably opening after two big movies with the same target audience might hurt, and Venom although trailer views has been impressive depends largely on quality, if it is shit, it’s toast.

 

Grinch killed it chance after shitty trailer, Halloween needs more buzz, Ralph 2 and Poppins have a five day, and Aquaman has too much competition.

OWs are gonna be real boring until Captain Marvel.