jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[MattW]

Not sure where the 170+ weekend estimates from the trades are  coming from based on ~50 for Friday proper.  The most I can see with this current Friday trajectory is

 

18.5 + 51 + 54^(+6.5%) + 45^(-16.6%) = 168.5

 

However as many have already said it does seem like these big weekends generally have numbers going up, especially an animated movie with insane previews like this.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Incredibles 2 will definitely target older teens/adults a lot more than Shrek, I’m sorry.  Nearly 14 years between the films.  If you were 8 when the original came out, you’d be 22 now.  If you were 8 when Shrek came out, you’d be 11 when Shrek 2 came out.  It’s just not a good comparison.

Adults loved Shrek just as much as the kids when it came out.  There’s a reason Shrek 2 adjusts over 600m and Shrek 3’s OW adjusts in the 160m range.

 

Shrek 2 was a rare film that managed to target families and bring in adults who wouldn’t normally go see animation.  It’s a very good comp to how I2 is playing, probably the best one we have (with the exception of I2’s OW being much bigger).

[MikeQ]

Assuming a $69M Friday gross, this is what I will project for Incredibles 2 for now:

 

THU: 18.5M

FRI: 50.5M

SAT: 51M (+1%)

SUN: 44M (-14%)

----

TOTAL: 164M

 

Dory and Toy Story 3 both opened on the same weekend and stayed flat on Saturday compared to their True Friday, so those seem like the only good comparisons I have to draw from in projecting Incredibles 2. I expect the Sunday drop to be strong due to Father's Day. It could be stronger than I am projecting.

 

I hope I'm wrong and it does even better, but this in itself would represent an INSANE opening weekend, besting the previous animated film record (Dory's $135M) by about $30 million AND besting Shrek 2's adjusted animated film record ($161.9M).

 

Also, all this is assuming $69M for Friday. Hopefully the Friday gross goes higher through the night. Please come entertain us, @Rthanos!

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

They’re still gonna make 150M+ and 75M+ on their opening weekends?  Please describe how this wouldn’t affect Incredibles 2, especially because I2 is far more teen/adult heavy than something like Shrek 2 or Dory

1. I wouldn’t even guarantee they both make that much.

 

2. Incredibles 2 is the only family fare on the market

 

3. It’s possible for there to be multiple films do well at the same time.

[That One Girl]

ok ok ok stop quoting me I don’t care enough to continue arguing jesus

Edited June 15, 2018 by That One Guy

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

Adults loved Shrek just as much as the kids when it came out.  There’s a reason Shrek 2 adjusts over 600m and Shrek 3’s OW adjusts in the 160m range.

 

Shrek 2 was a rare film that managed to target families and bring in adults who wouldn’t normally go see animation.  It’s a very good comp to how I2 is playing, probably the best one we have (with the exception of I2’s OW being much bigger).

And I2's OW is actually still going to be smaller than Shrek 2's in admissions, unless it does go like 190+ 

[CJohn]

JW2 is barely gonna do 100M OW if that. I am thinking 90-95M right now. There is no hype.

[DAR]

19 minutes ago, Ithil said:

Disney cannot be halted.

Well unless they release.......nevermind

[YM!]

To be honest, Dory faced a huge amount of direct family competition (it faced BFG and Pets both of which a week apart, then IA5, then NL, then PD, and finally Kubo). However they’re not as big as JW2 or AMATW barring Pets. But I do believe WOM is good enough for I2 to legs it to $500M. As for $600M-$700M, I’d at least wait for the weekend. We also don’t know how frontloaded this’ll be. I’m thinking $165M-$170M/$500M-$525M.

 

Besides I can see I2 hurting JWFK, AMATW and HT3 tbh.

Edited June 15, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[MovieMan89]

Just now, CJohn said:

JW2 is barely gonna do 100M OW if that. I am thinking 90-95M right now. There is no hype.

It literally might be this weekend with the Pixar film and JW film numbers swapped:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=25&p=.htm

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

JW2 is barely gonna do 100M OW if that. I am thinking 90-95M right now. There is no hype.

And no love? Don’t be disappointed by the movie if it doesn’t hit your expectations.

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

JW2 is barely gonna do 100M OW if that. I am thinking 90-95M right now. There is no hype.

That comment has never blown up in anyone's face on this forum before.

[Nova]

Incredibles 2 second weekend over Jurassic World 2 OW. Someone go make the club. 

[Nova]

Also how in the hell was $110M considered a breakout for Incredibles when it's been tracking for $130M-$150M? 

 

By all means the numbers its pulling now is considered breaking out but hypothetically if it did $110M, that would not have been a breakout and it actually would have missed its tracking by $20M. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Nova

[JohnnyGossamer]

Are these JWFK $95M OW DOM in jest? I can't even imagine it opening that low.

[Jake Gittes]

In other news Paramount never gave a single fuck and stopped tracking Action Point after 2 weeks. Does someone there just really hate Johnny Knoxville or something?

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:

$5,059,608

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$2,390,164
(#9 rank, 2,032 theaters, $1,176 average)
% of Total Gross:	47.2%
> View All Weekends

Widest Release:

2,032 theaters

Close Date:

June 14, 2018

In Release:

14 days / 2 weeks

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

JW2 is barely gonna do 100M OW if that. I am thinking 90-95M right now. There is no hype.

 

A 50%+ drop seems excessive

 

A low 40% drop wouldn't surprise me but I think  35% is a more likely range for a $130- 140m opening.

[MikeQ]

I think Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 will be able to co-exist next weekend. We're entering height of the summer where most schools will be off or soon off, and I think it's possible for an animated film and action film to co-exist, even if the animated film is also action oriented.

 

If Incredibles 2 opens to $170M, then a 47-50% drop next weekend (Dory and Toy Story 3 each dropped 46% in their second weekend) takes it to $85-90M next weekend. I'm stilling pegging Jurassic World 2 at $130-150M. It looks to be selling well (in top 5 at MovieTickets despite dominance of Incredibles 2) and anecdotally I've seen a lot of interest from friends and family in a way that suggests general audience interest, from my experience.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[Nova]

Also I don't know if anyone is interested in Solo and DP2 Numbers but Solo is looking at a 41% drop and DP2 is looking at 35% drop. If the numbers hold that's a solid weekend for both films given their Thursday holds. *Btw I'm guessing Hereditary is going under $7M for the weekend as Deadline has Superfly in 6th with a $7M weekend. From Deadline: 

 

Disney’s Solo: A Star Wars Story will file 4th with $9.2M at 3,182, -41% in weekend 4 with a running total by Sunday of $192.9M. 20th Century Fox’s Deadpool 2 in 5th looks to make $9.17M, -35% in weekend 5 at 3,212 for a total of $295M.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

In other news Paramount never gave a single fuck and stopped tracking Action Point after 2 weeks. Does someone there just really hate Johnny Knoxville or something?

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:

$5,059,608

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$2,390,164
(#9 rank, 2,032 theaters, $1,176 average)
% of Total Gross:	47.2%
> View All Weekends

Widest Release:

2,032 theaters

Close Date:

June 14, 2018

In Release:

14 days / 2 weeks

Noooooooo, we don’t get that glorious TC drop @CJohn