Monday's Numbers 23.9...eeeerrrr...24.1 according to Forbes

[Mekanos]

Avengers 4 is going to make more money than the conclusion to a Star Wars trilogy. 

[Fake]

Looks to finish with 275M first week.

 

Tue: 28M (+17%)

Wed: 21M (-25%)

Thu: 20M (-5%)

 

Weekend can go anywhere from 80M to 90M.

 

Low end:

 

Fri: 25M (+25%)

Sat: 31M (+25%)

Sun: 24M (-20%)

 

High end:

 

Fri: 27M (+35%)

Sat: 35M (+30%)

Sun: 28M (-20%)

 

Note: If Wed/Thu manage to stay above 20M, then TI2 will be only 2nd film ever (after TFA) to have 10 straight days above 20M.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

Last year people said that 2018 would be the death of the super hero movie and yet here we are with 5 super hero movies opening within a 5-6 month of one another and dominating the box office. 

 

2019 won’t be any different. 

 

I get tired of having to wait all day for a DP2 number.  For once, it would be nice if they released it early.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, I count a possible 26 more films with the potential to hit 100 million.  Not sure if it will happen, but it's at least possible.

I count 30 that I consider potential for 100M so things would have to go amazing well for almost all of them, it's pretty much guaranteed to not happen. (I'm including things like robin hood, mortal engines, alita, the meg)

[baumer]

Guessing DP2 is 1.2 million.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Avatree said:

I count 30 that I consider potential for 100M so things would have to go amazing well for almost all of them, it's pretty much guaranteed to not happen. (I'm including things like robin hood, mortal engines, alita, the meg)

 

Meg I think will make it...Alita too.  Robin Hood looks weird so I didn't include that one.  

[bladels]

17 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I suppose if 2018 is the dominance of superhero movies, next year will be the death of superhero movies... you have:

 

The Avengers, Captain Marvel, Spiderman and Wonder Woman (the rest of her league abandoned her)... 

 

vs

 

Gojira, Elsa, Maverick, James Bond, Woody & Buzz, Pikachu, Emmet Brickowski, Toothless, Dumbo, Aladdin and Simba's Pride, Secret Pets, Dwayne Johnson's Fast and Furious, the clown from It, oh and Star Wars too.

I don't see how not be completely dominant equal death.

It still gonna be no.1 genre in 2019.

Edited June 19, 2018 by bladels

[Nova]

To put super hero movies into perspective. My cousin and his girlfriend have been visiting and we discussed movies and the movies they’ve seen this year were the CBM plus A Quiet Place. I asked them why/when did they get to the point of watching CBM like this and they both said that they find CBM to be the most entertaining movies that come out right now and feel like they’re getting their money’s worth when they go. 

 

So as I always say: as long as super hero movies remain of quality and entertaining, fatigue won’t be hitting anytime soon. The only fatigue there is are the articles and posts written about how fatigue will hit in so and so year. What will bring down the super hero genre is the super hero genre itself. If the movies stop being good, then and only then will you see the fatigue that people have been talking about for the last 5-6 years. Otherwise expect super hero movies to dominate the box office. 

[Rebeccas]

11 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I suppose if 2018 is the dominance of superhero movies, next year will be the death of superhero movies... you have:

 

The Avengers, Captain Marvel, Spiderman and Wonder Woman (the rest of her league abandoned her)... 

 

vs

 

Gojira, Elsa, Maverick, James Bond, Woody & Buzz, Pikachu, Emmet Brickowski, Toothless, Dumbo, Aladdin and Simba's Pride, Secret Pets, Dwayne Johnson's Fast and Furious, the clown from It, oh and Star Wars too.

People say this every year yet somehow the SH genre still thrives. Next year will just be a bit more balanced at the box office (hopefully).

 

And hilariously, we all thought IW/DP2/Solo was waaay too crowded and that DP2 would be the one to take the hit but that one survived just fine and it was Solo that died.

[Jandrew]

19 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Amazing that in 2013, the box office was much more evenly distributed. No film made 500 mill and only four made more than 300.  And yet there were 35 films that took in 100 million. Pretty impressive.  where as this year there will be 3 films to break 600 million and at least five to make 300 million.  And yet we might not have 30 films make it to 100 million.

Just goes to show how top heavy 2017 waa and where this year is ahead. 2017 actually had worse attendance than 2014. Thats incredible, and pretty sorry imo.

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I get tired of having to wait all day for a DP2 number.  For once, it would be nice if they released it early.

It’s always one of the last to get released  It’s not as bad as Disney but still like damn. 

[PPZVGOS]

3 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I count 30 that I consider potential for 100M so things would have to go amazing well for almost all of them, it's pretty much guaranteed to not happen. (I'm including things like robin hood, mortal engines, alita, the meg)

There are always sleeper hits that make it over 100M. Also, some high-profile releases that fail utterly. It all depends on which tendency will gain the upper hand. 

[kswiston]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, I count a possible 26 more films with the potential to hit 100 million.  Not sure if it will happen, but it's at least possible.

 

$100M is a low enough barrier, that we could get some left field surprises late in the year that wouldn't stand out as possibilities on a release schedule right now.

 

But I don't see 2018 challenging the $100M+ record. The huge films are taking too much oxygen out of the room for films releasing in their shadow to break out. Rampage would have been over $100M if it had another week before Infinity War for instance. 

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Meg I think will make it...Alita too.  Robin Hood looks weird so I didn't include that one.  

I don't even know if its coming out this year pretty sure theres no trailer yet, just saw it on the BOM release schedule.

 

I think 2019 will break the record for 100Ms. There are 20+ movies that are locked for 100M already let alone any others that do well.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, kswiston said:

 

$100M is a low enough barrier, that we could get some left field surprises late in the year that wouldn't stand out as possibilities on a release schedule right now.

 

But I don't see 2018 challenging the $100M+ record. The huge films are taking too much oxygen out of the room for films releasing in their shadow to break out. Rampage would have been over $100M if it had another week before Infinity War for instance. 

 

Competition is always a factor.  That has never changed.  You can't say that Rampage would have made 100 million if Avengers hadn't come out.  Huge film are coming out every weekend.  It's just the way it is.  Hell, if Titanic was the only movie playin in 1997-98 it would have made 2 billion domestic.  But reality is movies are always coming out to take dollars away.

[McNerdy]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

To put super hero movies into perspective. My cousin and his girlfriend have been visiting and we discussed movies and the movies they’ve seen this year were the CBM plus A Quiet Place. I asked them why/when did they get to the point of watching CBM like this and they both said that they find CBM to be the most entertaining movies that come out right now and feel like they’re getting their money’s worth when they go. 

 

So as I always say: as long as super hero movies remain of quality and entertaining, fatigue won’t be hitting anytime soon. The only fatigue there is are the articles and posts written about how fatigue will hit in so and so year. What will bring down the super hero genre is the super hero genre itself. If the movies stop being good, then and only then will you see the fatigue that people have been talking about for the last 5-6 years. Otherwise expect super hero movies to dominate the box office. 

I think it might become a generational thing. Like cowboy movies, disaster-monster movies, and golden age of cinema erotic movies before, I think upcoming generations when they grow up might find something else more interesting than western comic book movies in the future regardless of the quality. We'll see though. 

[Jake Gittes]

I've thought for a few years that 2018-19 would be the peak of superhero movies, and I see no reason not to stick to that. They won't disappear obviously but I certainly hope the new decade will be defined by something different (and more interesting). 

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, McNerdy said:

I think it might become a generational thing. Like cowboy movies, disaster-monster movies, and golden age of cinema erotic movies before, I think upcoming generations when they grow up might find something else more interesting than western comic book movies in the future regardless of the quality. We'll see though. 

yes obviously it will go the way of westerns at some point. But we are no where near there yet.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

It’s always one of the last to get released  It’s not as bad as Disney but still like damn. 

 

So here's the march to 300 for Deadpool2,

 

Monday:  1.2 million

Tuesday:  1.45

Wednesday:  1.15

Thurs:  970K

Friday:  1.7  should cross 300 this day.

Sat  2.45

Sun:  1.9

 

So by friday it should hit 300 and by the end of the weekend it should be at around 305.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Mekanos said:

Avengers 4 is going to make more money than the conclusion to a Star Wars trilogy. 

 

I don't find this shocking.  Even if TLJ had better legs and go to 750, the conclusion to the trilogy wasn't guaranteed to go up.  And there is also no guarantees that A4 hits 700 million.  Lots can happen between now and when they start filming SW.  I do think A4 will come out on top, but it wouldn't surprise me to see SW recover and make it a close game.