Monday's Numbers 23.9...eeeerrrr...24.1 according to Forbes

[The Panda]

23 minutes ago, Fake said:

Looks to finish with 275M first week.

 

Tue: 28M (+17%)

Wed: 21M (-25%)

Thu: 20M (-5%)

 

Weekend can go anywhere from 80M to 90M.

 

Low end:

 

Fri: 25M (+25%)

Sat: 31M (+25%)

Sun: 24M (-20%)

 

High end:

 

Fri: 27M (+35%)

Sat: 35M (+30%)

Sun: 28M (-20%)

 

Note: If Wed/Thu manage to stay above 20M, then TI2 will be only 2nd film ever (after TFA) to have 10 straight days above 20M.

I think you’re being pessimistic about how high its weekend can go, but we’ll wait and see

[Jandrew]

20 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

Just goes to show how top heavy 2017 waa and where this year is ahead. 2017 actually had worse attendance than 2014. Thats incredible, and pretty sorry imo.

2017 had 5 movies do over $380m, 2014 had 0. 2017 had 8 movies over $300m, 2014 had 3. Yet both 2017 and 2014 had 33 movies do $100m, and 67 movies did $50m in 2014 vs 55 in 2018. And even with the $700m from Panther, $664m from Avengers, ~$300m from Deadpool, 2018 is about only 20m tickets ahead of 2014 at the same point.

 

That's remarkable. That gap between the haves and have nots is growing increasingly visible. We talked about how boring 2014 was back then but ogled 2017, yet in reality 2014 wins.

[a2k]

Mowgli, Smallfoot and Bumblebee have a shot 100 dom imo, depending on reception of course.

- Mowgli could do a run similar to Rampage and Wrinkle.

- Peter Rabbit (25/4.6x) showed what animations can do at times. Smallfoot could pull off 25/4x if stars align.

- 100 would be a 23% drop from TF5 and achievable for Bumblebee if it's decent and gets more female demo than other TF films.

[The Panda]

Also, because I2 skews to Older than other Pixar, I think we could see larger Fri/Sat increases than say, Dory

[Rebeccas]

13 minutes ago, Avatree said:

yes obviously it will go the way of westerns at some point. But we are no where near there yet.

Westerns are a much narrower genre than SH movies tbh. You can vary the tone somewhat but aesthetically you pretty much have the same stuff in most Westerns - horses, desert/mountain landscape, gunfights, a tavern, etc. They're mostly set in post-Civil War America with very few exceptions and they mostly star men who don't talk a lot. At a certain point, that was going to get old cause there's only so much you can change about the genre before it's not even a Western anymore.

 

SH movies can look like The Incredibles, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Dark Knight, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Winter Soldier, Thor Ragnarok, Aquaman, etc. You can change the time period, the character traits, or the planet even.

[cookie]

21 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

I think it might become a generational thing. Like cowboy movies, disaster-monster movies, and golden age of cinema erotic movies before, I think upcoming generations when they grow up might find something else more interesting than western comic book movies in the future regardless of the quality. We'll see though. 

It's worth remembering that each of those genres faded because of specific circumstances that wouldn't affect comic book movies.

Edited June 19, 2018 by cookie

[The Panda]

I think it’s silly to think comic book movies will never fade, but it may be a while before something else usurps them in popularity

[kswiston]

8 minutes ago, a2k said:

Mowgli, Smallfoot and Bumblebee have a shot 100 dom imo, depending on reception of course.

- Mowgli could do a run similar to Rampage and Wrinkle.

- Peter Rabbit (25/4.6x) showed what animations can do at times. Smallfoot could pull off 25/4x if stars align.

- 100 would be a 23% drop from TF5 and achievable for Bumblebee if it's decent and gets more female demo than other TF films.

 

Sony Pictures Animation has a better track record than WB though. WB has released two animated films in that same Sept window as Smallfoot, and neither was anywhere near $100M. SPA released 5 films in that slot, and 4 were over $100M. The 5th still beat both of the WB efforts, despite coming out a decade before. 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, a2k said:

Mowgli, Smallfoot and Bumblebee have a shot 100 dom imo, depending on reception of course.

- Mowgli could do a run similar to Rampage and Wrinkle.

- Peter Rabbit (25/4.6x) showed what animations can do at times. Smallfoot could pull off 25/4x if stars align.

- 100 would be a 23% drop from TF5 and achievable for Bumblebee if it's decent and gets more female demo than other TF films.

Mowgli looks like a flop.

 

I’d argue TTG has a better shot at $100M than Smallfoot, Warner Animation doesn’t do well in September. Not to mention it has competition from Clock and Goosebumps 2.

 

Bumblebee is too low, I can realistically see $150M from it. The trailer has gotten great views and interest is there.

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, cookie said:

It's worth remembering that each of those genres faded because of specific circumstances that wouldn't affect comic book movies.

The other thing is comic books have survived as a popular art form for almost 100 years.. it's not really just a movie genre. It's just something that movies started adapting really well recently with the advancements in technology. Like comic books themselves, I'm sure CBMs will also have highs and lows too though.

 

Interesting thing about Westerns is they seemed to have a slight spike in interest around 2007-2010 (artistically I mean, financially they weren't big except for maybe True Grit) and then died again lol. Also you can't really sell Westerns to foreign audiences that well.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Rebeccas

[Belle]

42 minutes ago, Avatree said:

no they wouldn't... they would just watch other things. the box office overall would not change hugely.

 

A Quiet Place has done amazingly well nearly 200M for a horror film is excellent. Think you will see the superhero dominance be slightly mitigated from now onwards in the year... Jurassic Park coming this week, Mission impossible in July, some original tentpole films Meg & Skyscraper, and you have Mamma Mia as well which is something different that should do well. Then in the holiday period at the end of the year there are a ton of big movies that don't involve superheroes  

I agree. In the 2000s I know we had Batman/Spiderman but Harry Potter, Twilight, Shrek, Pirates were doing pretty well. If superhero movies in theory were to be a fad like vampires around the time of Twilight, we'll just move on to the next genre. Yes Superheroes movies are successful but there are thousands of movies released every year and many smaller-mid size successes every year. Last year the top 5 movies worldwide weren't superhero movies for example. 

 

Anyways, I wouldn't be surprised if I2 drops over 50% this weekend. Not because of Jurassic World 2, but because these numbers are HUGE. A 24M Monday (if it follows say Jurassic World's projections it should make around 83M from weekdays) and 183M ow for 7 day total of around 265M? That's a lot to burn through in one week. 

[The Panda]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

The other thing is comic books have survived as a popular art form for almost 100 years.. it's not really just a movie genre. It's just something that movies started adapting really well recently with the advancements in technology. Like comic books themselves, I'm sure CBMs will also have highs and lows too though.

 

Interesting thing about Westerns is they seemed to have a slight spike in interest around 2007-2010 (artistically I mean, financially they weren't big except for maybe True Grit) and then died again lol.

Eh, I don’t think when people mention that CBMs will eventually fade they mean there’ll never be anymore of them.  Even if we look at previous niche genre fads like Musicals, Disasters or Westerns they all still have entries.

 

Westerns have some life through being infused into other genres, such as with Logan or Solo (or in the TV realm, Westworld).

 

Disaster movies still have some hits and entries every year or so.

 

Musicals also still have some films each year.

[Fake]

17 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

I think you’re being pessimistic about how high its weekend can go, but we’ll wait and see

Both TS3 and FD had 39% Sat to Sat drop, but the competition was pretty weak in their 2nd weekends (no 50m+ opener).

 

TI2 will have to compete with a ~150M opener, which is also targeting family audience. 43-45% drop seems reasonable, if not optimistic.

[poweranimals]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

Bumblebee is too low, I can realistically see $150M from it. The trailer has gotten great views and interest is there.

I think Bumblebee will likely be drowned out by coming out the same day as Aquaman.

[Krissykins]

32 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So here's the march to 300 for Deadpool2,

 

Monday:  1.2 million

Tuesday:  1.45

Wednesday:  1.15

Thurs:  970K

Friday:  1.7  should cross 300 this day.

Sat  2.45

Sun:  1.9

 

So by friday it should hit 300 and by the end of the weekend it should be at around 305.

I’m still really surprised this fell this much from the first. 

 

Hope it doesnt happen to Wonder Woman 2. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by Krissykins

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

Eh, I don’t think when people mention that CBMs will eventually fade they mean there’ll never be anymore of them.  Even if we look at previous niche genre fads like Musicals, Disasters or Westerns they all still have entries.

 

Westerns have some life through being infused into other genres, such as with Logan or Solo (or in the TV realm, Westworld).

 

Disaster movies still have some hits and entries every year or so.

 

Musicals also still have some films each year.

Musicals are probably a more suitable comparison to SH movies honestly. They're both broad enough to have lots of sub-genres, are not limited by setting or tone, and both have another source to somewhat sustain their popularity (Broadway for musicals, comic books themselves for SH movies).

[Jake Gittes]

Superhero movies are probably less comparable to westerns than they are to lavish historical epics, the biggest sources of spectacle in their day. 

 

15 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Westerns are a much narrower genre than SH movies tbh. You can vary the tone somewhat but aesthetically you pretty much have the same stuff in most Westerns - horses, desert/mountain landscape, gunfights, a tavern, etc. They're mostly set in post-Civil War America with very few exceptions and they mostly star men who don't talk a lot. At a certain point, that was going to get old cause there's only so much you can change about the genre before it's not even a Western anymore.

 

SH movies can look like The Incredibles, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Dark Knight, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Winter Soldier, Thor Ragnarok, Aquaman, etc. You can change the time period, the character traits, or the planet even.

 

On the other hand, westerns could afford having genuine antiheroes and moral ambiguity, and they weren't constrained by the producers looking to sequelize or build a cinematic universe around them. Superhero movies may look different on the surface but in the end you still get a hero, a villain, and a conflict resolved via lots of punching and/or CGI, and too often it somehow takes these movies an hour more to tell this story than it took westerns to tell theirs. 

[Jake Gittes]

Westerns didn't really die post-2010. We got two Tarantino films, The Revenant, Magnificent Seven, Hostiles, and way more indies (Bone Tomahawk, The Salvation, Slow West, etc.) than there ever were pre-2007.

[Rebeccas]

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Superhero movies are probably less comparable to westerns than they are to lavish historical epics, the biggest sources of spectacle in their day. 

 

On the other hand, westerns could afford having genuine antiheroes and moral ambiguity, and they weren't constrained by the producers looking to sequelize or build a cinematic universe around them. Superhero movies may look different on the surface but in the end you still get a hero, a villain, and a conflict resolved via lots of punching and/or CGI, and too often it somehow takes these movies an hour more to tell this story than it took westerns to tell theirs. 

Unless you're talking about post-modern/revisionist Westerns like No Country For Old Men or Assassination of Jesse James etc which completely do not follow any conventions and are very arthouse, I think that genre has pretty standard hero vs. villain tropes with some kind of gunfight showdown often with some kind of revenge aspect as opposed to a CGI battle in SH movies.

 

The bigger problem is Westerns used to be a very kid/youth friendly genre and now they're mostly seen as stuff your grandpa would watch unless its a Tarantino or Coen brothers auteur film.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Rebeccas

[FantasticBeasts]

Superheroe films do not have variety. Every Marvel film looks the same to me.