Weekend Thread | Venom with -55.5% drop - 35.7m | A Star is Born -34.7% - 28m | First Man disappointing with 16.5m | Goosebumps 2 16.225m | Bad Times for Bad Times At The El Royale with 7.225m

[terrestrial]

23 minutes ago, gravestonedt said:

full capacity sold out showings with new releases >> Venom, holdovers.  assuming Venom is running so-so w/ 4,250 locations +.  2/3 of BvS 2nd weekend.

no links, no whatever, no joy, bye

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I meant more box office Achievement wise. $42m openers don’t fall 34% too often. 

That's exactly what I meant too. 42M openers don't fall 34% too often, but they're usually nowhere near as old skewing as ASIB either. Make no mistake, it's a great hold, all things considered; and ASIB was pretty damn anticipated and seen as more of an event movie than usual for even current day musical standards... but that was mostly because of Gaga's involvement + festival ravings. Gaga's fanbase and the inflation of Sunday (played basically like a 4-day opener) were the key factors for the huge OW result. That being said, if you've not been keeping up with the daily box office, ASIB had monstruous weekday holds - somewhat typical for an older audience-skewing drama, but ASIB's were especially good - and had pretty much everything in its wake to hold very, very strongly in its 2nd weekend (Sully was often seen as a comparison). A hold of this kind was honestly pretty expected.

 

So, yeah, ASIB's hold is remarkable and very strong given the opening, but it was far more predictable than Venom, a big comic book tentpole without the greatest wom in the world (if you go by critics and CinemaScore, despite audiences seemingly enjoying it), an inflated opening Sunday and a loss of premium screens, holding to 55%, a better than average hold for cbm second weekends, nevermind cbm second weekends coming off a boosted up opening.

Edited October 14, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

Night School had an excellent hold this weekend (-36%) after last weekend's 54% drop. If last weekend's drop wasn't so bleh, it could've had a shot at 100M.

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by sfran43

[Damianport1]

What's best and worst case scenario for First Man domestic total now? 75M and 35M? I mean there is a world in which its drops 60% next weekend due to poor word of mouth nand strong competiton. This would mean its in danger of missing Best Picture nom at oscars. hopefully no

Edited October 14, 2018 by Damianport1

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Damianport1 said:

What's best and worst case scenario for First Man domestic total now? 75M and 35M?

It'll probably land between $60-70M.

[Krissykins]

30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That's exactly what I meant too. 42M openers don't fall 34% too often, but they're usually nowhere near as old skewing as ASIB either. Make no mistake, it's a great hold, all things considered; and ASIB was pretty damn anticipated and seen as more of an event movie than usual for even current day musical standards... but that was mostly because of Gaga's involvement + festival ravings. Gaga's fanbase and the inflation of Sunday (played basically like a 4-day opener) were the key factors for the huge OW result. That being said, if you've not been keeping up with the daily box office, ASIB had monstruous weekday holds - somewhat typical for an older audience-skewing drama, but ASIB's were especially good - and had pretty much everything in its wake to hold very, very strongly in its 2nd weekend (Sully was often seen as a comparison). A hold of this kind was honestly pretty expected.

 

So, yeah, ASIB's hold is remarkable and very strong given the opening, but it was far more predictable than Venom, a big comic book tentpole without the greatest wom in the world (if you go by critics and CinemaScore, despite audiences seemingly enjoying it), an inflated opening Sunday and a loss of premium screens, holding to 55%, a better than average hold for cbm second weekends, nevermind cbm second weekends coming off a boosted up opening.

Predictable vs achievement though. 34% is still the much more impressive hold in my eyes. And ASIB is still having a much more interesting run. 

 

Sure, Venoms drop isn’t as dreadful as it could have been. But it’s still a 55% drop. It’s not as if it held in the 40’s. Plus it’s Cinemascore wasn’t bad (B+?). Just critics reviews that were horrendous. It’s playing at a smaller level than recent CBM’s too.

 

(Edit- Venom opening to more than Ant-Man 2 despite a summer release date makes me smile, and I haven’t seen either of them, haha)

Edited October 14, 2018 by Krissykins

[Damianport1]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It'll probably land between $60-70M.

That would not be that bad. On par with Bridge of Spies. but 30M below Arrival and Captain Phillps and about 150-200M short of Martian and Gravity

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Predictable vs achievement though. 34% is still the much more impressive hold in my eyes. And ASIB is still having a much more interesting run. 

 

Sure, Venoms drop isn’t as dreadful as it could have been. But it’s still a 55% drop. It’s not as if it held in the 40’s. Plus it’s Cinemascore wasn’t bad (B+?). Just critics reviews that were horrendous. It’s playing at a smaller level than recent CBM’s too.

 

(Edit- Venom opening to more than Ant-Man 2 despite a summer release date makes me smile, and I haven’t seen either of them, haha)

Weren't you spinning The Nun's 66% hold as fine?

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

What's best and worst case scenario for First Man domestic total now? 75M and 35M? I mean there is a world in which its drops 60% next weekend due to poor word of mouth nand strong competiton. This would mean its in danger of missing Best Picture nom at oscars. hopefully no

$35m isn't happening. Its an October release and those typically have stronger legs regardless. So it won't be dropping that hard at all. 

 

Its final gross will depend on whether it gets a best picture nom or not. To me $50M-$60M without best picture. $60M-$70M if it gets best picture. 

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Weren't you spinning The Nun's 66% drop as fine?

Fixed.

 

Ha, nice try. No I said it stabilised a bit after it’s second weekend Plummet.

 

Its fan rush and WOM, but I didn’t say it was a good or impressive hold. 

Edited October 14, 2018 by Krissykins

[Damianport1]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

$35m isn't happening. Its an October release and those typically have stronger legs regardless. So it won't be dropping that hard at all. 

 

Its final gross will depend on whether it gets a best picture nom or not. To me $50M-$60M without best picture. $60M-$70M if it gets best picture. 

But it will be out of theaters come january? unless they will re-release it

Edited October 14, 2018 by Damianport1

[WrathOfHan]

Just a reminder that the deadline for the forum's horror countdown is this Friday:

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Fixed.

 

Ha, nice try. No I said it stabilised a bit after it’s second weekend Plummet.

 

Its fan rush and WOM, but I didn’t say it was a good or impressive hold. 

Quote

65% for The Nun is actually better than some were expecting, someone said 75% was possible lol. 

 

You don't explicitly say it's a good hold in that post, but you threw out "well, it's better than what it could've been!" And don't bring up budgets into this discussion because Venom is already profitable.

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

But it will be out of theaters come january? unless they will re-release it

It should not be out of theaters by January regardless but it won't be in a ton of theaters at that point because there are quite a few big December releases that'll be hogging up theaters and most importantly screens at those theaters 

Edited October 14, 2018 by Nova

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

It should not be out of theaters by January regardless but it won't be in a ton of theaters at that point because there are quite a few big December releases that'll be hogging up theaters and most importantly screens at those theaters 

January's looking really barren this year so I imagine it won't be difficult getting it back into a select number of theaters in the likely event it nabs a Best Picture nomination.

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by sfran43

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

You don't explicitly say it's a good hold in that post, but you threw out "well, it's better than what it could've been!" And don't bring up budgets into this discussion because Venom is already profitable.

I didn’t mention budgets at all and I’m fully aware Venom is a big hit. I’m fully prepared for Halloween to fall way over 60% too. 

 

Why are Venom fans so offended? Nothings actually happened to the film aside from terrible reviews.