Weekend Thread ~ The Grinch 67m+ per DHD

[filmlover]

The Grinch should land around the unadjusted $260M total of the 2000 film, at least.

[Eric Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

ASIB is locked for 200, right? The TC losses will be coming soon (my 12plex AMC already dumped it), but with the way it's been holding, will it even drop more than 40%?

If it follows the rest of Gravity's run: $211M

Gone Girl: $205.2M

The Martian: $206.7M

 

Keep in mind, it's legs are already better than all of them at the same point in time, including Gravity. So yeah.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

If it follows the rest of Gravity's run: $211M

Gone Girl: $205.2M

The Martian: $206.7M

 

Keep in mind, it's legs are already better than all of them at the same point in time, including Gravity. So yeah.

With an Oscar re-expansion and push I'm sure it could break into the all time top 10 rated R. Which would make Bradley Cooper the star of 4 of those 10. He's the R rated blockbuster king.

[filmlover]

Congrats on your first $5M+ grosser, Amazon!

[The Panda]

I could see Bohemian Rhapsody make a push for 200m

[sfran43]

 

[MovieMan89]

Also, I had no idea until recently the 70's ASIB was such a box office smash. 343m adjusted, holy crap.

[La Binoche]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, I had no idea until recently the 70's ASIB was such a box office smash. 343m adjusted, holy crap.

Streisand was queen of the box office that decade. No one came close. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, I had no idea until recently the 70's ASIB was such a box office smash. 343m adjusted, holy crap.

The power of Streisand.

[MaxAggressor]

ASIB's multiplier after 24 days - 3.46

Gravity's multiplier after 24 days - 3.58

ASIB's multi/Gravity's multi - 0.966

 

ASIB's multiplier after 28 days - 3.6

Gravity's multiplier after 28 days - 3.69

ASIB's multi/Gravity's multi - 0.975

 

ASIB's multiplier after 31 days - 3.86

Gravity's multiplier after 31 days - 3.92

ASIB's multi/Gravity's multi - 0.984

 

ASIB's multiplier after 35 days - 3.96

Gravity's multiplier after 35 days - 3.99

ASIB's multi/Gravity's multi - 0.992

 

Gravity's multiplier after 38 days - 4.144

ASIB's projected multiplier after 38 days - 4.149

 

ASIB finally pulls ahead of Gravity in terms of multiplier at equivalent stage 

[MinaTakla]

FORBES

Illumination and Universal/Comcast Corp.’s The Grinch opened with a whopping $66 million over the weekend (and $78.7m worldwide). That’s a solid 3.52x domestic weekend multiplier, with only 3.33% of that weekend gross coming from the Thursday previews. For comparison, bigger overall numbers notwithstanding, Secret Life of Pets ($5m/$38m/$104m) and Minions ($6m/$46m/$115m) earned 5% of their weekend gross on Thursday and nabbed over/under 2.6x weekend multipliers.

 

Christmas movies that open in November tend to be leggy, which is why so many Christmas hits (Home Alone, Elf, The Santa Clause, etc.) do not open in December. Even Robert Zemeckis’ too-expensive (but underrated) Christmas Carol ($138 million from a $30m debut in 2006) and Robert Zemeckis’ too-expensive (but underrated) Polar Express ($162m from a $30m Wed-Sun launch in 2004) were leggy as heck. Sony’s animated The Star earned 4x its $9.8m debut last year. Walt Disney's Ralph Breaks the Internet will provide Thanksgiving competition, but then it’s clear sailing until the year-end Christmas blitz. I’d be surprised by anything under $215m domestic, although The Lorax “only” earned 3x its $70m debut in 2012.

A 2.8x-3.0x multiplier (Hop, The Lorax and Minions) gets it a total between $185 million and $198m, while 3.5x multiplier (Secret Life of Pets) gets it to $231m. A 4x multiplier, which again wouldn’t be that crazy for a well-liked Christmas toon, gets this one to $264m, or about on par with Sing ($270m in 2016) and Despicable Me 3 ($264m in 2017). Despicable Me pulled a 4.4x multiplier, although that was more of a lesser-known quantity (Grinch is a known quantity with zero surprises), but that gives Grinch a $290m domestic total. This is all educated guesswork until we see how it performs against Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet over the next two weeks.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/11/11/how-the-grinch-stole-the-weekend-box-office-with-boffo-66m-debut/#640f01087c25

 

Illumination Entertainment

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$368,384,330	4,381	$104,352,905	4,370	7/8/16
2	Despicable Me 2	Uni.	$368,061,265	4,003	$83,517,315	3,997	7/3/13
3	Minions	Uni.	$336,045,770	4,311	$115,718,405	4,301	7/10/15
4	Sing	Uni.	$270,395,425	4,029	$35,258,145	4,022	12/21/16
5	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$264,624,300	4,535	$72,434,025	4,529	6/30/17
6	Despicable Me	Uni.	$251,513,985	3,602	$56,397,125	3,476	7/9/10
7	Dr. Seuss' The Lorax	Uni.	$214,030,500	3,769	$70,217,070	3,729	3/2/12

Edited November 11, 2018 by MinaTakla

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

Streisand was queen of the box office that decade. No one came close. 

Yeah, I have to admit I had no idea she had such a prolific box office run from Funny Girl through the 70's. Huge numbers adjusted for most of those.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited November 11, 2018 by sfran43

[MagnarTheGreat]

48 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

ASIB is locked for 200, right? The TC losses will be coming soon (my 12plex AMC already dumped it), but with the way it's been holding, will it even drop more than 40%?

 

Speaking of which

 

Daily Domestic Multiplier	Gravity (4.91)	A Star Is Born	ASIB Minus Gravity
	Oct. 2013	Oct. 2018
Weekend 1 FSS	$55.79M	$42.91M
Weekend 1 FSS	1.000	1.000	0.000
Day 4 M	1.108	1.189	0.081
Day 5 T	1.227	1.330	0.103
Day 6 W	1.323	1.437	0.114
Day 7 T	1.419	1.542	0.123
Weekend 2 FSS	2.193	2.205	0.012
Day 11 M	2.304	2.273	-0.031
Day 12 T	2.376	2.365	-0.011
Day 13 W	2.438	2.433	-0.005
Day 14 T	2.501	2.495	-0.006
Weekend 3 FSS	3.040	2.939	-0.100
Day 18 M	3.083	2.982	-0.100
Day 19 T	3.136	3.044	-0.092
Day 20 W	3.177	3.090	-0.087
Day 21 T	3.218	3.136	-0.082
Weekend 4 FSS	3.579	3.464	-0.115
Day 25 M	3.606	3.494	-0.111
Day 26 T	3.639	3.538	-0.101
Day 27 W	3.665	3.568	-0.096
Day 28 T	3.694	3.602	-0.092
Weekend 5 FSS	3.924	3.858	-0.066
Day 32 M	3.940	3.881	-0.058
Day 33 T	3.961	3.915	-0.046
Day 34 W	3.977	3.939	-0.038
Day 35 T	3.992	3.962	-0.030
Weekend 6 FSS	4.145	4.149	+0.004
Final Multiplier	4.913	TBD	TBD
Days to 90% Final Gross	56	TBD
Final Gross	$274.09M	TBD

 

* still in theaters / studio estimate for weekend 6

** Gravity received a significant January expansion after 256.4M

 

Gravity's $1M day streak ended on Day 32 while ASIB's streak hasn't ended yet and may end on Day 39.

A few weeks ago I took out most of the Gravity expansion and adjusted Gravity to 24 weeks: Gravity comes to $259.59M and a multiplier of 4.65 without it. ASIB first weekend $42,908,051 * 4.65 = $199.52M . And it's only off Gravity this weekend if the estimate is correct by +0.004. Seems more likely than less likely a few weeks ago at least because of the dailies being stronger than Gravity's at this point.

Edited November 11, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat
updated with studio estimates; The-Numbers.com seems to be running late today.

[titanic2187]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If ASIB does end up the big Oscar front-runner throughout awards season, they should do a big re-expansion push in like late January and see if it can run for 250.

Bad thing is, by time the oscar season come, WB would have already move their attention to home media streaming market for ASIB

[Ezen Baklattan]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Congrats on your first $5M+ grosser, Amazon!

Chala-meh.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

 

Speaking of which

 

Daily Domestic Multiplier	Gravity (4.91)	A Star Is Born	ASIB Minus Gravity
	Oct. 2013	Oct. 2018
Weekend 1 FSS	$55.79M	$42.91M
Weekend 1 FSS	1.000	1.000	0.000
Day 4 M	1.108	1.189	0.081
Day 5 T	1.227	1.330	0.103
Day 6 W	1.323	1.437	0.114
Day 7 T	1.419	1.542	0.123
Weekend 2 FSS	2.193	2.205	0.012
Day 11 M	2.304	2.273	-0.031
Day 12 T	2.376	2.365	-0.011
Day 13 W	2.438	2.433	-0.005
Day 14 T	2.501	2.495	-0.006
Weekend 3 FSS	3.040	2.939	-0.100
Day 18 M	3.083	2.982	-0.100
Day 19 T	3.136	3.044	-0.092
Day 20 W	3.177	3.090	-0.087
Day 21 T	3.218	3.136	-0.082
Weekend 4 FSS	3.579	3.464	-0.115
Day 25 M	3.606	3.494	-0.111
Day 26 T	3.639	3.538	-0.101
Day 27 W	3.665	3.568	-0.096
Day 28 T	3.694	3.602	-0.092
Weekend 5 FSS	3.924	3.858	-0.066
Day 32 M	3.940	3.881	-0.058
Day 33 T	3.961	3.915	-0.046
Day 34 W	3.977	3.939	-0.038
Day 35 T	3.992	3.962	-0.030
Weekend 6 FSS	4.145	4.141	-0.004
Final Multiplier	4.913	TBD	TBD
Days to 90% Final Gross	56	TBD
Final Gross	$274.09M	TBD

* still in theaters / Deadline.com projection for weekend 6

** Gravity received a significant January expansion after 256.4M

 

Gravity's $1M day streak ended on Day 32 while ASIB's streak hasn't ended yet and may end on Day 39.

 

A few weeks ago I took out most of the Gravity expansion and adjusted Gravity to 24 weeks: Gravity comes to $259.59M and a multiplier of 4.65 without it. ASIB first weekend $42,908,051 * 4.65 = $199.52M. And it's only off Gravity this weekend if Deadline's right by -0.004. Seems more likely than less likely a few weeks ago at least because of the dailies being stronger than Gravity's at this point.

One big advantage of Gravity was, the better was a visual spectacular, which 3D/IMAX reexpansion in oscar season seem justified since you can't sell 3D/IMAX experience on home media. 

 

ASIB, on the other hand, will hurt badly once it hit home media market. 

[FantasticBeasts]

I feel The Grinch will do a x4 multi. This is the ultimate thematic-christmas movie. It will do well until January. Somewhat like a mini Frozen situation.

Edited November 11, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[La Binoche]

Omg. Did Spider's Web come in under ASIB?