Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I could actually see On the Basis of Sex making more than all of the non-Glass January releases and pull a mini Hidden Figures with a $50M+ gross tbh. Reviews are good and RBG is clearly a draw if a documentary about her made as much as it did.

Eh, that’ll probably settle around 20M. I’m not convinced Focus will give it a big push.

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

is this good, bad, average?

[sfran43]

 

[boyamama]

Just now, Valonqar said:

is this good, bad, average?

better than MPR and bumble bee plus spiderverse combined...

[Deja23]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

You know what, I actually have to say that @TwoMisfits' point about MoviePass being an extremely relevant element of the success of many movies in the span of 2017/2018 might actually be correct. One can only imagine if A LOT of people wouldn't MoviePass the shit out of MPR or even Bumblebee, while keeping their big money for IMAX/3D showings of Aquaman.

That may be true. Since I started using MoviePass around November last year, I can definitely say I’ve seen way less movies now than I saw last year, now that I don’t have it anymore. And I’m planning to be very selective about which movies I see and don’t plan on doing repeat watches. I saw several award-nominated movies last year, but have seen only a couple this year. I’d say movies like Jumanji and TGS definitely benefited from MoviePass in a way MPR, Bumblebee, Spider-Verse and Aquaman won’t this year. 

Edited December 22, 2018 by Deja23

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Eh, that’ll probably settle around 20M. I’m not convinced Focus will give it a big push.

You responded before I could add it into my post but the trailer has been literally attached to every movie the past few months so there’s not been a shortage of marketing. Plus it’s opening in 33 theaters on Tuesday and from what I can tell among the theaters doing reserved seating I checked it’s doing pretty well (and unlike most of this year’s indies, should have no difficulty attracting a broader audience upon expansion), considering it’ll likely end up skewing super old (you might want to avoid seeing it in other words).

Edited December 22, 2018 by filmlover

[Johnny Tran]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's still gonna land high 60's/low 70's...that's not that good...especially since it had the early Atom deal for $5 off 2 tickets (so they pushed some draw early)...

 

It's not BAD, but for a super this year, and a DC one, it's not good in comparison...especially since it's not getting torched by the competition (ie - it's not being held down b/c MP2 and Bumblebee are doing so well)...

It's probably going to finish above Ant-Man & The Wasp and Doctor Strange domestic,  probably above Venom also.  Those are it's direct "competitors" seeing as Aquaman is in that tier of character.  We're not talking about a Batman movie.  

[YSLDC]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

So he claims Aquaman will have the same OD to OW ratio as Wonder Woman? It didn't have the same Preview to OD ratio as Wonder Woman.

[Taruseth]

So... MPR 3-Day is going to be less than 10% of TFA's 3-Day... That's kinda awful.

54 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Jumanji did $400m with a $36m opening last year...

Yeah? That wasn't a superhero though and had a Wednesday start against TLJ and Christmas Eve hurting the Sunday. And Aquaman has 14M previews in that opening, Jumanji non.

MPR could do a TGS too, but it's highly unlikely.

I think Aquaman will do slightly better legs than TFA.

 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

It had the same opening number as Venom and it’s Christmas. I think there’s a little of bias in your posts. You have been touring underperformance by Aquaman all week. The number is fine. 

I love DC and I have tickets to Aquaman on Wednesday...and my icon:)...

 

I also said it was a $300M+ movie pre-Christmas for weeks...

 

But see, I'm also willing to admit when I'm not seeing what I'd hoped to be seeing...it's not a "shoo-in to $300M" road off a $70ishM weekend...I'd really hoped it would get bigger sets a few weeks ago, and I'd hoped it would open higher then, even with Christmas...especially after those 1st screening reviews...

 

But, this week, I saw the sets and knew it was gonna be a slog, not a prance to a big number...and coming in under my "max number on sets" means it's not popular enough that it's getting showings pulled from other movies...(and it's not here)...it's doing okay...and I personally wanted more than okay...but I'm not so beholden to a movie that I won't call it like I see it...

 

I already said MP2 was my next Baywatch bad call, no matter where it ends up:)...

Edited December 22, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

Aquaman is super frontloaded this weekend but that was a given since it’s filling the void of this year’s fanboy-driven Christmas movie with no Star Wars to be found. Will have a sizeable drop next weekend in comparison to everything else because of it but holds should stabilize from there with the aforementioned mostly dead January coming up.

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, boyamama said:

better than MPR and bumble bee plus spiderverse combined...

lol, not so fast, we don't even have numbers for those movies. or do we? 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

So he claims Aquaman will have the same OD to OW ratio as Wonder Woman? It didn't have the same Preview to OD ratio as Wonder Woman.

Aquaman is going to have a relatively better Sunday.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

You responded before I could add it into my post but the trailer has been literally attached to every movie the past few months so there’s not been a shortage of marketing. Plus it’s opening in 33 theaters on Tuesday and from what I can tell among the theaters doing reserved seating I checked it’s doing pretty well (and unlike most of this year’s indies, should have no difficulty attracting a broader audience upon expansion), considering it’ll likely end up skewing super old (you might want to avoid seeing it in other words).

Good thing Tallahassee doesnt have many seniors lol

[TMP]

Let's hope $300m+ is still in play 🙈🙈🙈

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Aquaman is going to have a relatively better Sunday.

Wonder Woman only dropped 15% on Sunday...it's gonna be hard to do a lot better on holds than that:)...

[Ms Lady Hawk]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I love DC and I have tickets to Aquaman on Wednesday...and my icon:)...

 

I also said it was a $300M+ movie pre-Christmas for weeks...

 

But see, I'm also willing to admit when I'm not seeing what I'd hoped to be seeing...it's not a "shoo-in to $300M" road off a $70ishM weekend...I'd really hoped it would get bigger sets a few weeks ago, and I'd hoped it would open higher then, even with Christmas...especially after those 1st screening reviews...

 

But, this week, I saw the sets and knew it was gonna be a slog, not a prance to a big number...and coming in under my "max number on sets" means it's not popular enough that it's getting showings pulled from other movies...(and it's not here)...it's doing okay...and I personally wanted more than okay...but I'm not so beholden to a movie that I won't call it like I see it...

 

I already said MP2 was my next Baywatch bad call, no matter where it ends up:)...

Point taken! However, one should separate their expectations against actual performance. “Not that good” is not accurate for Aquaman’s performance so far. The performance is good by any measure- some would even say very good based on the tracking estimates. 

[Manny G]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

It's probably going to finish above Ant-Man & The Wasp and Doctor Strange domestic,  probably above Venom also.  Those are it's direct "competitors" seeing as Aquaman is in that tier of character.  We're not talking about a Batman movie.  

Gotta love how before release it was “Aquaman is the Antman of DC he’s a joke “ now the goalpost is being moved 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Aquaman is going to have a relatively better Sunday.

WW Sunday hold was pretty good (like 15%)
The last time with this constellation the films drop around 10 to 20%. So nothing much better than WW.

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Good thing Tallahassee doesnt have many seniors lol

Or do they?