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The Good Dinosaur | Peter Sohn | BR/DVD release 2-23-2016 | Pixar's first BO flop

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this ones a bomb. for a big budget pixar, its going to end well under 200m.

shocking.

 

mainly, the ave rating on RT, about 6.6/10 is subpar and well below recent pixar efforts like frozen etc.

Edited by Halba
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Perhaps the trailers weren't just as appealing to audiences as Inside Out was. Inside Out also had a big marketing push before it's release. The Good Dinosaur's marketing was more modest in comparison. It also had to deal with Mockingjay 2 having a stronger hold (at least more a stronger hold than I expected) and Creed turned out to be a bit of a surprise hit.

 

The Good Dinosaur's financial future is yet to be written because it could still do decently throughout the next few weeks, but uncertain at this point. Pixar will bounce back next year either way. 

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4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Looks like lowest opening weekend ever for a Pixar movie since A Bug's Life.

What went wrong?

 

Pixar Thanksgiving & Late June 5-day adjusted

 

Toy Story 3: 149.3m

Toy Story 2: 131.5m

Inside Out: 114.0m

Monsters U: 104.8m

Wall-E: 92.5m

Brave: 86.5m

Cars 2: 83.0m

A Bug's Life: 81.3m

Toy Story: 77.5m

Ratatouille: 75.7m

The Good Dinosaur: 55.6m

 

Over 25% down from their previous slowest start. :unsure:

 

Edited by cory
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5 hours ago, Halba said:

this ones a bomb. for a big budget pixar, its going to end well under 200m.

shocking.

 

mainly, the ave rating on RT, about 6.6/10 is subpar and well below recent pixar efforts like frozen etc.

There's still a chance at finishing $175 million+ for GD. 

 

$20 million ($81 million) - softer OW allows slightly better hold than other Thanksgiving openers 

$17.5 million ($104 million) - no competition + calm before SW7

$11 million ($119 million) - SW7 sellouts + double features should help it hold best against SW7 compared to MJ2, Heart of the Sea, etc. 

$15 million ($148 million) - Christmas boost

$13 million ($176 million) - New Year's boost

$7 million ($187 million) - standard post-holiday drop 

$5 million/$7 million ($195 million) - MLK

$3 million ($199 million) - post-MLK drop

$7-10 million in dollar-theater 

 

Now I'm being EXTREMELY generous with holds, but even with heavier drops, $170-180 million is still achievable. I wouldn't say it's finished. 

 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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17 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

There's still a chance at finishing $175 million+ for GD. 

 

$20 million ($81 million) - softer OW allows slightly better hold than other Thanksgiving openers 

$17.5 million ($104 million) - no competition + calm before SW7

$11 million ($119 million) - SW7 sellouts + double features should help it hold best against SW7 compared to MJ2, Heart of the Sea, etc. 

$15 million ($148 million) - Christmas boost

$13 million ($176 million) - New Year's boost

$7 million ($187 million) - standard post-holiday drop 

$5 million/$7 million ($195 million) - MLK

$3 million ($199 million) - post-MLK drop

$7-10 million in dollar-theater 

 

Now I'm being EXTREMELY generous with holds, but even with heavier drops, $170-180 million is still achievable. I wouldn't say it's finished. 

 

 

 

Yeah, the lower opening should definitely make for stronger initial holds than the likes of Tangled or Frozen. For example, Rise of the Guardians only dropped 43% its second weekend, opposed to the 50%+ drops for Tangled/Frozen. Giving it Guardian's same 5 day multi puts it at a $178m finish. Tangled's gives it $162m. So since it opened between those two, maybe it will finish between their multis as well at around 170m or so. Hopefully at least. 

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Yeah I don't understand why this movie underperformed. it looks super cute to me. guess cute doesn't always cut it. Still I think it's wom will be good enough for at least $160m. 

 

But Seriously was anyone predicting these number for any of these movies MJP2 $290m SPECTRE $200m, Good Dino $165m, Peanuts $140m. all of those numbers are well under my predictions. kind of sad really :unsure:

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