May the Force be Furious! Hobbs&Shaw Over Episode IX WW

[Valonqar]

Hobbs&Shaw vs Finn&Paw. Simple version.

 

Not so simple version:

 

F&F movies make over 1B OS alone while SW is in a freefall OS. 

 

F&F movies are gigantic in Asia and LA while SW is dead there except in Japan 

 

Hobbs is the most popular F&F character and Shaw is the break out. OTOH, new SW characters can't even sell toys and oldies are dead and ruined anyway.

 

There's super excitement for this. There's palatable lack of anticipation for IX.

 

Hobbs&Shaw are fandom's wet dream pairing. Even Tumblr gave up on Finn&Poe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Valonqar

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Hobbs&Shaw vs Finn&Paw. Simple. 

 

Not simple.  This is still a club and you need to tell us your reasons for this club.  Why do you think a FF movie will outgross a SW film.

[MrGlass2]

This is worldwide I presume?

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Not simple.  This is still a club and you need to tell us your reasons for this club.  Why do you think a FF movie will outgross a SW film.

Fixed in OP. Thanks for reminder.

 

@MrGlass2 yes, added in the title.

[Mulder]

Out

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Out

[baumer]

WW is a little more interesting.....i will withdraw my Nic Cage laughing gif.

 

Still out though.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

WW is a little more interesting.....i will withdraw my Nic Cage laughing gif.

 

Still out though.

well, it couldn't be anything but WW cause we know this wins OS and IX wins dom. so WW is up in the air and I'm rooting for the top (under)dogs. 

[KP1025]

Out. While the previous two F&F films were massive overseas, we don't know how a spin-off will be received by audiences. Without the main cast together, it's possible the film loses appeal among the GA. I know the China board is being pretty conservative about its prospects currently because Dominic Toretto is the face of the franchise. Last I checked, people were predicting $150-200 million in China compared to the nearly $400 million F7 and F8 grossed. Similar to the drop Bumblebee received from the franchise peak of Transformers 4. 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Out. While the previous two F&F films were massive overseas, we don't know how a spin-off will be received by audiences. Without the main cast together, it's possible the film loses appeal among the GA. I know the China board is being pretty conservative about its prospects currently because Dominic Toretto is the face of the franchise. Last I checked, people were predicting $150-200 million in China compared to the nearly $400 million F7 and F8 grossed. Similar to the drop Bumblebee received from the franchise peak of Transformers 4. 

well, that's the beauty of taking the risk. this is a ballsy club. if I win, I'm the king. if I lose, I still proved to have balls. So basically I always win...and so does everyone who's IN. 

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

yes, added in the title.

Well this is a bold and interesting club, congratulations.

Unfortunately I have to pick OUT, Knights of Ren should increase from TLJ and F&FPH&S would then have to beat FF8.

[CJohn]

I am IN. Episode 9 will do 1B WW, this will do 1.1B or so.

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am IN. Episode 9 will do 1B WW, this will do 1.1B or so.

 

 

Agreed! 

[Barnack]

23 hours ago, Valonqar said:

F&F movies make over 1B OS alone while SW is in a freefall OS. 

 

There's super excitement for this. There's palatable lack of anticipation for IX.

 

Good club and those 2 points ring true.

 

11

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BV

$1,332.5

$620.2

46.5%

$712.4

53.5%

2017

 

16

The Fate of the Furious

Uni.

$1,236.0

$226.0

18.3%

$1,010.0

81.7%

2017

 

 

Last entry start not that far from each other either, a -4% on Star Wars and +4% on  Fast&Furious give us 1,279 for SW 9 vs 1,285 for FF, so no jump at all needed here.

 

I would have said yes rather easily at one time, but this make me pause, China BO:

 

2

The Fate of the Furious

UPI

$392,807,017

1

Furious 7

China Film

$390,910,000

4/

 

Nothing came that close of Wolf Warrior 2 mindblowing 854m performance in 2017 last year either, will it really reach 1B oversea alone ? Not 100% sure, anyway should start with a +220 (if not 300-350) or so minimum in China giving it a good edge right there.

 

Should be close, I will go............. OUT, fell like the conversation between Disney and Abrams, hey how much billions is there in play if we turn the climate around Star Wars ? Here your budget JJ, many much a lot.

Edited February 2, 2019 by Barnack

[Darth Lehnsherr]

OUT

$1.2B for Episode IX

$900M for Hobbs and Shaw 

[charlie Jatinder]

Far Out.

Hobbs and Shaw 60-70% of The Fate of the Furious, i.e. $725-850mn approx

 

Episode IX $550-650mn Domestic & same Internationally. $1.05-1.3billion.

 

[Valonqar]

16 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

Good club and those 2 points ring true.

 

11

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BV

$1,332.5

$620.2

46.5%

$712.4

53.5%

2017

 

16

The Fate of the Furious

Uni.

$1,236.0

$226.0

18.3%

$1,010.0

81.7%

2017

 

 

Last entry start not that far from each other either, a -4% on Star Wars and +4% on  Fast&Furious give us 1,279 for SW 9 vs 1,285 for FF, so no jump at all needed here.

 

I would have said yes rather easily at one time, but this make me pause, China BO:

 

2

The Fate of the Furious

UPI

$392,807,017

1

Furious 7

China Film

$390,910,000

4/

 

Nothing came that close of Wolf Warrior 2 mindblowing 854m performance in 2017 last year either, will it really reach 1B oversea alone ? Not 100% sure, anyway should start with a +220 (if not 300-350) or so minimum in China giving it a good edge right there.

 

Should be close, I will go............. OUT

Good post even though you didn't take the leap of fate at the end of it. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

it will be close, hard to say without a trailer

SW will need great marketing and great reviews from "fans" to do close to TLJ numbers

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

it will be close, hard to say without a trailer

SW will need great marketing and great reviews from "fans" to do close to TLJ numbers

I'm confident that IX will miss Top 5 WW. I have Endgame, Pikachu, Frozen 2 and TLK locked in Top 4 (boxoffice will decide the order) and only need 1 more movies to outgross IX. So Captain Marvel and S&H are good bets, IMO. 

[XXR & Friends]

OUT


The 2nd film in both previous SW trilogies was the lowest, so I expect this one will beat TLJ by $100-$200m worldwide. On H&S, it's a spinoff no matter how you slice it, so it's going to drop some. 

Episode. 9 ------- $1.48 billion 

Hobbs & Shaw --- $965 million