Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Aquaman being part of the DCEU has a hugely negative cloud hanging over the film. It's inevitable and most people are aware of its implosion. 

I agree. And honestly I think Blue Beetle unironically benefitted from not really being connected the DCEU (does it even take place in the DCEU?)

 

And again if it's abysmally bad I wouldn't rule out a disaster crash like a 3*5.5*3.5=~67.4 kinda run

Edited November 22, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Kon]

40 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I agree. And honestly I think Blue Beetle unironically benefitted from not really being connected the DCEU (does it even take place in the DCEU?)

 

And again if it's abysmally bad I wouldn't rule out a disaster crash like a 3*5.5*3.5=~67.4 kinda run

Blue Beetle takes place in the DCEU.

 

However, the character is little known, so general audience hardly associate him with the DCEU franchise.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Kon

[HummingLemon496]

8 minutes ago, Kon said:

Blue Beetle takes place in the DCEU.

 

However, the character is little known, so general audience hardly associate him with the DCEU franchise.

Hmmm, I've heard somewhere that it doesn't take place in the DCEU (not it matters anyway) and yeah I don't think audiences will directly look at BB and be like "that's DCEU" like they would do for Aquaman 2 

[Noctis]

I still don't see this finishing below $100m. With Christmas and holidays, that would require a performance worse than The Marvels and even I can't see that happening. 

 

Would be very fitting to see this hit less than FB3's $410m WW take.

 

Side note: why WB never released any of the Potters during December is beyond me.

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I still don't see this finishing below $100m. With Christmas and holidays, that would require a performance worse than The Marvels and even I can't see that happening. 

 

Would be very fitting to see this hit less than FB3's $410m WW take.

 

Side note: why WB never released any of the Potters during December is beyond me.

I think it could if reception is awful. With something like a 40% RT B CinemaScore level I could totally see something like $20M/$85M.

[Mojoguy]

8 hours ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

Fuck them!
 

I'm so happy I continue to educate myself on intimate partner violence and domestic abuse, and that I was able to weed out the misinformation. ❤️

 

The only reason I was going to watch was for Amber, but I guess I'll just continue to plan on watching In The Fire and whatever else she does in the future.

Missing: Amber Heard

 

The best wife ever who did nothing wrong

 

 

[Human]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Hmmm, I've heard somewhere that it doesn't take place in the DCEU (not it matters anyway) and yeah I don't think audiences will directly look at BB and be like "that's DCEU" like they would do for Aquaman 2 

According to DC's head of PR it is not in the DCU but the character is.  I have trouble believing him.

 

It mentions the DCEU events and heroes multiple times.

[Arlborn]

38 minutes ago, Human said:

According to DC's head of PR it is not in the DCU but the character is.  I have trouble believing him.

 

It mentions the DCEU events and heroes multiple times.

I believe what they meant is that the character will be in the new DCEU created by Gunn, but not the movie itself. It's a bit odd.

 

The movie is definitely in the old DCEU.

[Reed121]

I know pre-sales haven’t started strong but think people  are being too pessimistic. How are pre-sales compared to the first movie?
The recent trailer was good and gave me the same vibe as first movie so I have a hard time believing the movie is boring or a disaster. Wan is a competent filmmaker and it has the same writer of the first movie. 
 

 

[John Marston]

25 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

I know pre-sales haven’t started strong but think people  are being too pessimistic. How are pre-sales compared to the first movie?
The recent trailer was good and gave me the same vibe as first movie so I have a hard time believing the movie is boring or a disaster. Wan is a competent filmmaker and it has the same writer of the first movie. 
 

 

 

it’s also Christmas Eve weekend. Weekend will be muted but leg’s can be pretty good 

Edited November 22, 2023 by John Marston

[Kon]

2 hours ago, Human said:

According to DC's head of PR it is not in the DCU but the character is.  I have trouble believing him.

 

It mentions the DCEU events and heroes multiple times.

 

I think they mean Blue Beetle movie won't be part of the new DC universe they're creating, which will start with Superman Legacy. The Blue Beetle movie is part of the old DCEU, which is ending with Aquaman 2.

 

However, Blue Beetle with Xolo as actor may appear in the new DCEU. It could be like Jonah Jameson who has the same actor in Spiderman Raimi's Trilogy and MCU Spiderman.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Kon

[SpiderByte]

They aren't recasting Xolo as Blue Beetle. I think that's really the important part.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Reed121 said:

I know pre-sales haven’t started strong but think people  are being too pessimistic. How are pre-sales compared to the first movie?
The recent trailer was good and gave me the same vibe as first movie so I have a hard time believing the movie is boring or a disaster. Wan is a competent filmmaker and it has the same writer of the first movie. 
 

 

Yep think the same. If it's at least decent Christmas legs will benefit it. And that demo of Aquamoms/Momoa ladies who powered the first one are probably not going to be buying tickets 4 weeks early. 

[HummingLemon496]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

it’s also Christmas Eve weekend. Weekend will be muted but leg’s can be pretty good 

Good legs as in. . .it'll open to $25M and finish at $125M?

Edited November 22, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Arlborn]

I'd bet on 22M/100M myself if I were a betting man, considering the tracking thread right now.

 

Still, I think  it still has hopes of  coming close to 30M/135M as it's early in the pre-sales cycle...

 

Either way, 4.5x legs, book it.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Arlborn

[HummingLemon496]

30*4.5=135M domestic total

 

And btw $30M OW would require $5-6M previews assuming a 5-6 IM (Christmas Eve deflates the Sunday)

Edited November 22, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

We should be getting the initial tracking from Box Office Pro in 24 hours 

 

Important to note that most live action CBMs this year didn't overperform the initial Box Office Pro tracking

 

Ant-Man 3: Initial midpoint $298M, actual $215M (72%)

Shazam 2: Initial midpoint $119M, actual $57M (48%)

Guardians 3: Initial midpoint $346M, actual $359M (104%)

The Flash: Initial midpoint $328M, actual $108M (33%)

Blue Beetle: Initial midpoint $41M, actual $72M (175%)

The Marvels: Initial midpoint $155M, actual ~$87M (56%)

 

So the general trend is four huge underperformances (Shazam 2, The Flash, and The Marvels, Ant-Man 3), one roughly matching expectations (Guardians 3), and one huge overperformance (Blue Beetle, but the initial tracking was made before any tickets were on sale)

 

And it's important to note that bad reception absolutely TANKS it. The final/tracking midpoint for the four badly received movies averages out to 52%

 

My guess for the Box Office Pro (yes, I am guessing their guess) is $25-$33M OW and $113-$165M total

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Belakor]

If  they keep hiding Amber on the promotion and the reception is good I can see this easily making 150m Dom.

[Maggie]

These tracking numbers are awful. What's the excuse if this one flops too? Yet another 1B movie whose sequel is about to implode.

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

These tracking numbers are awful. What's the excuse if this one flops too? Yet another 1B movie whose sequel is about to implode.

It'll be "the first one released during the peak of CBMs and now this one is releasing during the death of CBMs" which is actually perfectly valid.