Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[Matthew]

Yesterday BOT was trashing this movie. Hope Shazam also does well😊😊😊

[lorddemaxus]

15 minutes ago, Matthew said:

So how much are we anticipating. I wouldn't be surprised if this opens to 60M+ 

I'm guessing around 55 mil. Not going with 60 mil yet since Cinderella opened to 67 mil with 2.3 mil previews and I am guessing previews started later for that movie.

 

I think it will open to around 197 mil pure friday and then Cinderella holds for the rest of the weekend. Would like to know the cinemascore.

Edited March 29, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[MrGlass2]

Tim Burton's Dumbo is already soaring above all expectations.

[LordNox]

Dumbo will easily open bigger than Shazam. Shazam is as of now not even selling half of Aquaman's presales. And Aquaman only opened to 67M. So Shazam will open in the low 30Ms if nothing changes in buzz.

[TwoMisfits]

HTTYD3 Thursday night previews $3M (+ $2.5M from early previews for $5.5M previews prior to weekend)

LM2 Thursday night previews $1,5M

Wonder Park Thursday night previews $700K

 

Probably the 3 best movies to compare Dumbo's previews with...with Wonder Park, as the true original, the worst comp to probably use to estimate the weekend...

[Eric the IF]

If it follows Dragon 3:

2.6

15.1

19.3

13.3

47.7M OW

 

Lego 2:

2.6

14.7

26.8

17.7

59.2M OW

 

A Wrinkle in Time:

2.6

20.4

27.2

18.6

66.2M OW

 

Cinderella:

2.6

26

30.6

20.2

76.8M OW

 

The Grinch:

2.6

22

32.4

25.4

79.8M OW

 

Cinderella's four years old and Grinch had a holiday on its Sunday, so those numbers are unlikely. But we seem to have this around the $45-65M range here. Really depends on if this plays out like a sequel (it's still an IP based on a famous movie), or an "original" movie.

[Matthew]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm guessing around 55 mil. Not going with 60 mil yet since Cinderella opened to 67 mil with 2.3 mil previews. I am guessing previews started later for that movie too. 

Cinderella earned 70M with Thursday previews 😊😊😊

[Eric the IF]

Just now, LordNox said:

Dumbo will easily open bigger than Shazam. Shazam is as of now not even selling half of Aquaman's presales. And Aquaman only opened to 67M. So Shazam will open in the low 30Ms if nothing changes in buzz.

[Matthew]

4 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Dumbo will easily open bigger than Shazam. Shazam is as of now not even selling half of Aquaman's presales. And Aquaman only opened to 67M. So Shazam will open in the low 30Ms if nothing changes in buzz.

That's not how BOx office works dude. Aquaman presales were high because of holidays and not just OW. And beside Shazam budget is half of Aquaman and Dumbo 😁😁😁😁

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Dumbo will easily open bigger than Shazam. Shazam is as of now not even selling half of Aquaman's presales. And Aquaman only opened to 67M. So Shazam will open in the low 30Ms if nothing changes in buzz.

Not the fanboy wars thread

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, Matthew said:

Cinderella earned 70M with Thursday previews 😊😊😊

Pretty sure that the Thursday previews are included in the Friday gross which was 22.99 mil so I am certain that the 67.8 mil OW was with Thursday previews included.

[harrisonisdead]

14 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Us made about 4.5 according to Forbes.

 

First day that it's fallen behind A Quiet Place's legs. Very slightly so, mind you (1.331 vs 1.335).

 

Looks like sub 50% drop for the weekend is a distinct possibility right now.

[TMP]

Anyways, $45m OW. Gonna be more front loaded than Cinderella, etc;

[filmlover]

Just now, TMP said:

Anyways, $45m OW. Gonna be more front loaded than Cinderella, etc;

We'll see. FWIW it's selling very well around me for later today.

[JohnnyGossamer]

It'll be a little frontloaded. Still thinking $50M+ OW DOM though.

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Pretty sure that the Thursday previews are included in the Friday gross which was 22.99 mil so I am certain that the 67.8 mil OW was with Thursday previews included.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-cinderella-lives-happily-781558

 

This report from Hollywood Reporter says 70M

[TwoMisfits]

I guess I'll be the contrarian - with those previews, I expect under $50M for the weekend (since I expect HHTYD3 is probably the best comp to compare "brand fans" and their rush factor)...but this is why we watch all 3 days:)...

Edited March 29, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I guess I'll be the contrarian - with those previews, I expect under $50M for the weekend (since I expect HHTYD3 is probably the best comp to compare "brand fans" and their rush factor)...but this is why we watch all 3 days:)...

HHTYD3 is not a good comparison at all. The movie has lots of fans and was more in line with Incredibles 2. Dumbo came out in 1947 and has build a family audience. 

 

50M is all but certain according to me. Maybe you are right but as always we will see. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I guess I'll be the contrarian - with those previews, I expect under $50M for the weekend (since I expect HHTYD3 is probably the best comp to compare "brand fans" and their rush factor)...but this is why we watch all 3 days:)...

You and TMP have been nothing but negative on Dumbo, it’s getting a bit tiresome. I hope it reaches 60 mil.

[MaxAggressor]

13 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Release Date	Movie	Thur B.O. ($M)	O.D. ($M)	O.W. ($M)	O.D. Multi	O.W. Multi
8/3/2018	Christopher Robin	1.5	9.5	24.6	6.3	16.4
11/2/2018	Nutcracker	0.63	5.9	20.4	9.4	32.6
3/9/2018	Wrinkle in Time	1.3	10.2	33.1	7.9	25.5
1/12/2018	Paddington 2	0.33	2.4	15	7.5	46.2
3/13/2015	Cinderella	2.3	23	67.9	10	29.5

9/21/2018              House W/Clocks      0.84                      7.8                  26.6             9.3                31.7

2018-09-28            Smallfoot                 0.85                      6.4                  23.0             7.6                27.1

2018-11-09            The Grinch               2.20                     18.6                  67.6             8.5                30.7

28/03/2019               Dumbo                     2.6                         ??                    ??               ??                ??

 

Looking at this list provided by @TalismanRing, the second worst comp gets Dumbo to a 66.3m OW.

 

If Dumbo follows CR which is the worst among the comp, it ends up with an opening weekend of 42.6m which should be the floor.  In any case, 60m for the OW doesn't look too far off based on previews.