Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

You and TMP have been nothing but negative on Dumbo, it’s getting a bit tiresome. I hope it reaches 60 mil.

It's not negative, it's realistic.  

 

If you look at Friday matinees in your area (edit - and your area isn't on spring break), you will see little sales.  So, the movie is definitely not skewing as young as Wonder Park (where the 5 and under audience will show at these Friday morning matinees)...and probably not as young as Lego Movie 2, either.

 

HTTYD3 had a more "same age" audience draw as I think this Dumbo does...HTTYD3 had a teen/adult "following" (aka the uber fans), just like these Disney remakes do.  So, I think it has the best "comp" for what we have.

 

I could be wrong - this movie could fly to $70M...but if you wanna make the casino bet with me now, I'd take under $50M for the weekend, even after these previews.  I just don't think it's gonna draw as hard into the family set as many want it to do so...

Edited March 29, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[John Marston]

I can't imagine many rushing out to watch a Dumbo movie

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I can't imagine many rushing out to watch a Dumbo movie

Yeah. HTTY3 has the effect of being a finale. I don't Understand why people will rush out to see Dumbo. Many people don't even care about spoilers for these live action movies if they had something new. 

[cdsacken]

I agree with Twomisfits.

 

Sticking with 50 million prediction.

[Eric the IF]

Runtimes w/out credits and attachments for next week:

Shazam: 2:04. Attachments unknown (I didn't get any at my early show, but I assume Pikachu and Godzilla)

Pet Sematary: 1:36. Rocketman is attached

The Best of Enemies: 2:06. My Spy (No idea what this is) and Poms are attached

[Litio]

Should have released it straight to Disney+

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Runtimes w/out credits and attachments for next week:

Shazam: 2:04. Attachments unknown (I didn't get any at my early show, but I assume Pikachu and Godzilla)

Pet Sematary: 1:36. Rocketman is attached

The Best of Enemies: 2:06. My Spy (No idea what this is) and Poms are attached

 

My Spy tells the story of "a hardened CIA operative who finds himself at the mercy of a precocious 9-year-old girl, having been sent undercover to surveil her family."[1]

 

Starring Dave Bautista

[CaptainJackSparrow]

1 minute ago, Litio said:

Should have released it straight to Disney+

If it’s doing good, why release it on Disney+????

[Ledmonkey96]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

My Spy tells the story of "a hardened CIA operative who finds himself at the mercy of a precocious 9-year-old girl, having been sent undercover to surveil her family."[1]

 

Starring Dave Bautista

Kind of reminds me of The Pacifier.

[Eric the IF]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

My Spy tells the story of "a hardened CIA operative who finds himself at the mercy of a precocious 9-year-old girl, having been sent undercover to surveil her family."[1]

 

Starring Dave Bautista

That's just the plot of Hulk Hogan's Mr. Nanny

 

[lilmac]

22 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I can't imagine many rushing out to watch a Dumbo movie

Parents with kids dragging them. Not sure that will be enough..

[Eric the IF]

From Deadline

 

Quote

NEON and Vice are opening Harmony Korine’s The Beach Bum today in 1,010 theaters. Industry estimates figure the stoner comedy starring Matthew McConaughey made $200K last night in previews.

Captive State did about $300K in about 1,000 more theaters, so this seems alright I guess?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

How’s Pet Sematary looking next week?

Depends, is it rated R? 

15 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

My Spy tells the story of "a hardened CIA operative who finds himself at the mercy of a precocious 9-year-old girl, having been sent undercover to surveil her family."[1]

 

Starring Dave Bautista

Lol that sounds like torture. Especially the Bautista part.  

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Great start. $50M+ is looking very likely now unless Burton fans frontload it somewhat.

There are no Burton fans left. 

[Rumpot]

I hate Dumbo.  To be fair though, I haven't seen it.  If I did then I am sure I'd love it.  I think it'll struggle to make 40M this weekend..UNLESS it makes 90M+ which is entirely possible if you ask me

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I hate Dumbo.  To be fair though, I haven't seen it.  If I did then I am sure I'd love it.  I think it'll struggle to make 40M this weekend..UNLESS it makes 90M+ which is entirely possible if you ask me

 

Thank you for accurately summarizing the entire discussion about Dumbo of the day.

[ThomasNicole]

46 minutes ago, Litio said:

Should have released it straight to Disney+

Why?

 

Should gross $ 400M (maybe a little more), it’s nothing wow but is far from a disaster, especially considering the marketing is really weak so probably doesn’t cost much.

[Litio]

1 hour ago, LordNox said:

Dumbo will easily open bigger than Shazam. Shazam is as of now not even selling half of Aquaman's presales. And Aquaman only opened to 67M. So Shazam will open in the low 30Ms if nothing changes in buzz.

Dumb will give loss to Disney. $170m of budget + $140m on marketing and p&a = $310m and it is looking for a WW box office under $330m. Next weekend, Pet Sematary will has a new entry, Dumbo. RIP 💀.

[Litio]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Why?

 

Should gross $ 400M (maybe a little more), it’s nothing wow but is far from a disaster, especially considering the marketing is really weak so probably doesn’t cost much.

Really? Overseas it is looking poor.

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, Litio said:

Dumb will give loss to Disney. $170m of budget + $140m on marketing and p&a = $310m and it is looking for a WW box office under $330m. Next weekend, Pet Sematary will has a new entry, Dumbo. RIP 💀.

Huh 140M in marketing. Please go somewhere else with your fake figures. Lol. 140M marketing is what Captain Marvel had.