Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Geo1500]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's literally impossible.  That would be about an 80% jump from the true Friday and that has never happened ever in the history of films on their opening Saturday.

 

It had a similar jump in the South Korean and Chinese box offices. Saturday is a proper holiday where people had a full day rest

Edited May 25, 2019 by Geo1500

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's literally impossible.  That would be about an 80% jump from the true Friday and that has never happened ever in the history of films on their opening Saturday.

He's likely a troll. Another shivampa.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I would say 35M+ due to families turning up in big numbers mostly on Saturday and Sunday. I won't even be surprised if it reaches 43M+ saturday

 

You're miscalculating.  You can't go by the 31 mill, you have to take off the previews from that.  So 24 million is the true Friday number.  Even if you give it a 30% bump, you get to 31 million.  That's the best case scenario imo.  

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

He's likely a troll. Another shivampa.

 

Or he's just new and doesn't understand how the box office works.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

It had a similar jump in the South Korean and Chinese box offices. Saturday is a holiday

 

I don't care what it did elsewhere.....there are historical precedents to compare it to....it isn't jumping 50% from the true Friday number.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Or he's just new and doesn't understand how the box office works.

Could be. I assume every user with 1 post is a shivampa until proven otherwise. That's what happens I guess. Fool me once, fool me twice and all that.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I don't care what it did elsewhere.....there are historical precedents to compare it to....it isn't jumping 50% from the true Friday number.

That, and Memorial Day weekend Saturdays are more muted to begin with, as Sundays are usually 95% of Saturday to completely flat.

 

EDIT: This may just apply to holdovers though. Not sure about openers. Either way, you're right.

Edited May 25, 2019 by JB33

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's literally impossible.  That would be about an 80% jump from the true Friday and that has never happened ever in the history of films on their opening Saturday.

32 max imo, likely under 30.

[Geo1500]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I don't care what it did elsewhere.....there are historical precedents to compare it to....it isn't jumping 50% from the true Friday number.

 

Nothing is written in stones before hand. Sudden increases can happen from friday to saturday which is a proper holiday especially if a movie was destined to breakout. It has seen increseas everywhere from friday to saturday. It could be slighlty low then my estimation tho. 3-5 % - / + max

Edited May 25, 2019 by Geo1500

[baumer]

Here are the top ten Memorial Day openers, and what they did on their first Saturday:

 

POTC AWE:  -12%

Crystal Skull:  +19.5% (opened on Thurs)

X-men Last Stand:  -29%

FF6:  -18%

XMDOFP:  -17%

Hangover 2:  -1% (opened on Thurs)

Solo:  -30%

Lost World:  +13%

The Day after Tomorrow:  +1%

Bruce Almighty:  +26%

 

So take the best out of all of that and you have +26%....so the most I see Aladdin increasing to is about 30 million.

[baumer]

Just now, Geo1500 said:

 

Nothing is written in stones before hand. Sudden increases can happen from friday to saturday which is a proper holiday

 

But not as much as you are saying it can.  

[cdsacken]

What's your thoughts? It's selling really well. I'd guess 28ish.

[baumer]

11 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

The $300m OW was impossible a couple months back too.

 

Agreed.  But give me a reason as to why Aladdin would behave so much differently than every other film on Memorial Day before it.  There were definitive and tangible and logical reasons as to why End Game did what it did.  Why would Aladdin behave differently than BatB or Madagascar or any other kids movie?

[dxmatrixdt]

fake #s, dont waste your time

[baumer]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

What's your thoughts? It's selling really well. I'd guess 28ish.

 

My theatre did very very brisk business today for Aladdin.  The afternoon shows were selling out rapidly.  

[JB33]

I'm so happy that Aladdin has been a pleasant surprise. Legs for Memorial Day weekend openers are almost never the greatest but hopefully it legs it out as much as possible.

 

Aladdin is doing stellar business at my theatre, by the way. Word of mouth from people I've spoken to who have seen it is great too.

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

My theatre did very very brisk business today for Aladdin.  The afternoon shows were selling out rapidly.  

I'm excited to see it. My daughter absolutely loved the Aladdin play and loves a whole new world. She's obsessed with princes and princesses so I gather she'll love it. 

[That One Girl]

 

[Geo1500]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Agreed.  But give me a reason as to why Aladdin would behave so much differently than every other film on Memorial Day before it.  There were definitive and tangible and logical reasons as to why End Game did what it did.  Why would Aladdin behave differently than BatB or Madagascar or any other kids movie?

 

Whether it is Memorial day or not it dosen't mean much. Lets say if you put Endgame on the same release date as Aladdin do you think it will struggle due to memorial day? the answer is no It dosen't make sense because nothing is written in stones and every movie follows it's own path. 

 

Aladdin is purely fueled on nostalgia so it's hardly surprising seeing it having big jumps

Edited May 25, 2019 by Geo1500

[cannastop]