Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[baumer]

Just now, Geo1500 said:

 

Whether it is Memorial day or not it dosen't mean much. Lets say if you put Endgame on the same release date as Aladdin do you think it will struggle due to memorial day? It dosen't make sense because nothing is written in stones and every movie follows it's own path. 

 

Aladdin is purely fueled on nostalgia so it's hardly surprising seeing it having big jumps

 

What you just said here has nothing to do with what I am saying.  I'm simply saying that your numbers are impossible and illogical. 

 

How about instead of pulling numbers out of your rear end, do some research and then come up with a logical number.  

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm  is your friend.  

[cdsacken]

Perhaps market your movie better imo just saying. Or don't release on the week of Aladdin.

 

Next week would have been better.

Edited May 25, 2019 by cdsacken

[JB33]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Women aren't even the issue. Put men in a college comedy from a small studio and that won't make much money either, especially when it's going up against Aladdin. I agree with her trying to rally folks to see the film, as it looks amazing, but I really hope studios aren't stupid enough not to greenlight movies like that because its a movie about women. That's so far off base it's not even funny.

 

I myself can't wait to see it but I can't until sometime this week. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 hours ago, baumer said:

no I don't think it's going to make a billion dollars worldwide. thanks for the advice but I've been doing this for about 25 years

 

Even the best fall off after a while. Don't go out punch drunk like Roy Jones Jr. Believing TLK won't make a billion worldwide is that moment 

[JB33]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Perhaps market your movie better imo just saying. Or don't release on the week of Aladdin.

This. These are the kinds of things that are the problem. I absolutely DESPISE when people go out of their way to try to make something about race or gender, especially in order to get attention and stoke the fire.

 

These are very real issues but I'd rather focus on them wherever there is actually a problem!

[baumer]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

Even the best fall off after a while. Don't go out punch drunk like Roy Jones Jr. Believing TLK won't make a billion worldwide is that moment 

 

I'm not claiming to be some guru when it comes to predictions....I'm not.  I'm just saying that there's a lot of films, DISNEY films that have been over predicted.  This is going to be another one.  Making 900-950 million isn't chump change.  I just don't think it will be that much of a hit internationally to get it over the hump.

[That One Girl]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Perhaps market your movie better imo just saying. Or don't release on the week of Aladdin.

 

Next week would have been better.

 

No, next week would not have been better, as it would've faced three 20M+ openers.  And it's not her fault that she made a phenomenal movie that's getting screwed over by the studio not marketing/releasing it properly.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Women aren't even the issue. Put men in a college comedy from a small studio and that won't make much money either, especially when it's going up against Aladdin. I agree with her trying to rally folks to see the film, as it looks amazing, but I really hope studios aren't stupid enough not to greenlight movies like that because its a movie about women. That's so far off base it's not even funny.

 

I myself can't wait to see it but I can't until sometime this week. 

 

Well, they were obviously trying to counter program and that seemed to work even a few years ago.  But comedies are really hard to get people interested in.  I'm not sure when this film could have opened in order for it to do better.  And where was the marketing for it?  I'm not saying they didn't market it, but how did they?  

[JB33]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

No, next week would not have been better, as it would've faced three 20M+ openers.  And it's not her fault that she made a phenomenal movie that's getting screwed over by the studio not marketing/releasing it properly.

Agreed, but also don't pin your films problems on misogyny either.

[Yandereprime101189]

10 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh, dear fucking Christ.

 

Why the hell does Disney keep giving this guy a fucking job? Pirates 4 was GODAWFUL. Terrible. And I haven't seen Mary Poppins Returns yet, but most accounts of it aren't highly positive, the film failed to get anywhere near major awards attention after all of the buzz, and it was one of the most overpredicted movies in box office history despite the fact that it literally had EVERYTHING in its wake to be a juggernaut. The only worse choice than him would be Bill Condon again, and even then, the BATB remake was at least better than On Stranger Tides.

 

You want a Little Mermaid remake, Disney? Get Stephen Chow to do it. He already did a semi-remake of it in 2016 and it was a gigantic hit. It'd do insane business in China. And the guy is known for colorful and hilarious comedy. It's a perfect match. If not him, you could hire James Wan, Gore Verbinski, Andrew Stanton.... there's so many directors with hands-on experience in water-related blockbusters, so why Rob Marshall again? Because Little Mermaid is a musical? Who fucking cares, the Cinderella and Jungle Book remakes weren't musicals either and they were good. And name a single song from The Little Mermaid that isn't Under The Sea. Yeah, that's right, no one can do that. So who cares. Fuck, even re-hiring the original directors, John Musker and Ron Clements, would be a better idea if you're just going for another shot-for-shot remake.

 

I'd agree with a lot of what you say but.. .

 

Kiss the Girl

 

Part of Your World

 

Poor Unfortunate Souls

 

Mermaid is well fucking known for its songs.

[Legion Again]

That Olivia Wilde tweet     

 

I mean, it’s a bummer the movie is struggling when it is by all accounts quite good and her directorial debut. But... it’s not a gender thing at all. It’s just not the sort of movie most people want to leave the house and pay $10 for in the streaming era.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I'm not claiming to be some guru when it comes to predictions....I'm not.  I'm just saying that there's a lot of films, DISNEY films that have been over predicted.  This is going to be another one.  Making 900-950 million isn't chump change.  I just don't think it will be that much of a hit internationally to get it over the hump.

Long range tracking is 600+ DOM. It's going to do amazing in Europe and all over. I mean I just don't see it happening. I had it at 525 and I feel really under on that prediction.  It's easily going to do way better than 475 overseas. Not being critical but gather 1.5 is more likely than 900.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I absolutely DESPISE when people go out of their way to try to make something about race or gender, especially in order to get attention and stoke the fire.

 

These are very real issues but I'd rather focus on them wherever there is actually a problem!

 

Okay, how's this for a problem?

https://ew.com/movies/2019/01/03/celluloid-ceiling-report-2018/

 

Quote

The Celluloid Ceiling report — an initiative of San Diego State University’s Center for the Study of Women in Television and Film which has gauged women’s employment on major Hollywood titles for the last 21 years — released its findings Thursday, indicating female filmmakers helmed only 8 percent of top 250-grossing movies (foreign films and reissues excluded) released to theaters in North America across 2018, down from both the 11 percent recorded in 2017 and the 9 percent recorded when the study launched in 1998.

 

The issue of a lack of female-directed films is very much a problem, and a film like Booksmart breaking out (which is directed by and stars women) would've absolutely helped with that.

[Geo1500]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

What you just said here has nothing to do with what I am saying.  I'm simply saying that your numbers are impossible and illogical. 

 

How about instead of pulling numbers out of your rear end, do some research and then come up with a logical number.  

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm  is your friend.  

 

Your trying to say that Memorial day is memorial day and it will never change using stats from nearly +10yrs ago movies. 

 

I kindly exit this argument politely and as gentle as possible. 

 

John

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I'm not claiming to be some guru when it comes to predictions....I'm not.  I'm just saying that there's a lot of films, DISNEY films that have been over predicted.  This is going to be another one.  Making 900-950 million isn't chump change.  I just don't think it will be that much of a hit internationally to get it over the hump.

 

In all seriousness, I know you know your shit which is why I find you take to be odd. Jungle Book made $964m in March/April. TLK is massively bigger than JB around the world. The nostalgia in Europe, Australia and Japan will be on par with domestic. Asia and Latin America should be drawn to the animals and non-Western centric iconography. None of this mentions the fact that it has essentially 2 months with no competition in the family film market. 

I guess the simple question is, you really believe The Lion King can't perform 5% better than the Jungle Book did? 

[JB33]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Well, they were obviously trying to counter program and that seemed to work even a few years ago.  But comedies are really hard to get people interested in.  I'm not sure when this film could have opened in order for it to do better.  And where was the marketing for it?  I'm not saying they didn't market it, but how did they?  

Agreed 100%. Marketing was putrid. That's why it comes off like just a big indie film, which is fine, but some may just shrug it off.

 

The point being, there's no need to stoke the fire like that. It has ZERO to do it being a film about women. Now, if this is the conclusion that big studio executives come to and she's sort of calling them out, okay, I get that.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Agreed, but also don't pin your films problems on misogyny either.

I agree with those problems they are true but like you said misogyny. Give me a damn break I love girly movies and I have a daughter. I've seen more girly movies than manly ones and it will be that way for decades. Boo hoo works for me.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Okay, how's this for a problem?

https://ew.com/movies/2019/01/03/celluloid-ceiling-report-2018/

 

 

The issue of a lack of female-directed films is very much a problem, and a film like Booksmart breaking out (which is directed by and stars women) would've absolutely helped with that.

I'm not saying that Hollywood isn't a clusterfuck of issues with women in the workplace. I'd be an idiot to suggest that. I meant in this specific instance. In other words, the movie isn't getting destroyed by Aladdin because it's a movie made by a woman about women. It's just getting clobbered by Aladdin, like anyone would expect. Don't take the square peg women issue in Hollywood and try to fit in the round  hole that is Booksmart doing modest numbers. Please, just don't.

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

There is LITERALLY nothing wrong with this tweet. Nada.  Zip.  Zilch.

 

And folks knee-jerking against it might want to pause a bit.

 

She is NOT blaming the lack of sales on sexism.  She is very correctly pointing out that films made by women tend to get less slack when they do poorly than films made by men.

 

And when I say "tend to" I mean exactly that.  Of course there are counter examples in either direction.

 

But her calling out the very real structural problems in the entertainment industry?  Even if it helps her own movie?

 

We need MORE of that IMO, not less.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Porthos
frickin spelling

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Okay, how's this for a problem?

https://ew.com/movies/2019/01/03/celluloid-ceiling-report-2018/

 

 

The issue of a lack of female-directed films is very much a problem, and a film like Booksmart breaking out (which is directed by and stars women) would've absolutely helped with that.

I hope female directors make a ton more movies. I literally don't give a crap who directs but given it's a male dominated field it would be nice to see more.