SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[a2k]

When TLK releases the most incredible run of the summer will be out of top 5 dom before the summer is over.

 

EG

TLK

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin

 

Of course FFH over Aladdin is not a lock!

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

When TLK releases the most incredible run of the summer will be out of top 5 dom before the summer is over.

 

EG

TLK

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin

 

Of course FFH over Aladdin is not a lock!

no, but if the six day is 180-190 then i would say that its almost lock

[Guest]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

When TLK releases the most incredible run of the summer will be out of top 5 dom before the summer is over.

 

EG

TLK

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin

 

Of course FFH over Aladdin is not a lock!

So you are saying this year Top 6 is 99% Disney and Top 7 has 10% chances. 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤑🤑🤑

 

EG

TLK

Frozen

SW9

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin 

 

This is insane. Also FFH can be counted as Disney movie under Sony's cloth. 

 

 

[Guest]

I will be honest. I really thought Detective Pikachu will cross 300M NA easily. 

 

I had Shazam and Godzilla both over 200m. 

 

Captain Marvel, Alaadin and Endgame overperformed. TS4 was right on the money.

[RamblinRed]

Excellent Friday bump for FFH - right in line with 2013 increases (which avg 28.3%). 

Likely to be flat today (+- a couple of %) and then a 20-25% decrease tomorrow. 180 is still the target.

I'm expecting about a 2.1 multiplier for FFH. HC was 2.17and FFH with a Holiday opening and being a sequel is likely to be a little more frontloaded. That would give you a 378M total. 400 is not off the table, but it would require really strong legs.

 

Great jump for TS4.  TS3 had a 30M 3rd weekend and TS4 looks like it will match or exceed it a little. TS3 ended up at 415M and TS4 is 13.5M ahead of TS3 as of Friday. I expect it will start to give that up some, but 400M looks more likely than not at this point as it has almost 30M cushion to get there.

 

Aladdin just keeps marching along. 350M is definitely in play. Can it stay in the top 5 for one more weekend next weekend (will need to jump ACH and Yday to do it).

 

Right now it looks like Disney could have the top 6 and 7 of the top 8 movies for the year.

 

Good hold for Yesterday as well. Should be over 36M by Sunday and has nothing coming out next week that is likely to impact it.  Could be over 45M by next weekend and headed to 50M+ total. Should end up making a nice little profit for Universal.

 

 

 

 

 

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

So you are saying this year Top 6 is 99% Disney and Top 7 has 10% chances. 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤑🤑🤑

 

EG

TLK

Frozen

SW9

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin 

 

This is insane. Also FFH can be counted as Disney movie under Sony's cloth. 

 

 

i will disagree cause 1st iron man, one of the best MCU movies, was pre-Disney. i think MCU would have been ok with any studio.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, AlexMA said:

Yes please do that. I mean I'm seeing it today, and I'm sure others are too, but I have a feeling Saturday will be more pre-sale heavy than say Friday, which probably had more walk-in business because you have all these people coming right after the big holiday on Thursday and now they want to see a movie and they pick Far From Home. But if you go on Saturday you probably do what I did and get your ticket a week in advance.

Not running my Cinemark tracking until Sunday (on a trip) but on Pulse before it went down Saturday was always higher than Friday

[Guest]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

i will disagree cause 1st iron man, one of the best MCU movies, was pre-Disney. i think MCU would have been ok with any studio.

MCU would never have been able to market itself like this if it wasn't for Disney. Yes, Iron Man was big hit and Avengers was breakout hit. But Disney marketed the hell out of MCU. 

 

They focused much more on Asia than usually HW Studios do. 

MCU is the biggest brand in movies. 

 

Disney was the one that gave Kevin Feige the full control of MCU. If it would have been another studio MCU would have been deteriorating. 

 

Black Panther and Captain Marvel would never have been made if not for Disney. 

 

Disney is the perfect Studio for Marvel. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Not running my Cinemark tracking until Sunday (on a trip) but on Pulse before it went down Saturday was always higher than Friday

if true then we will see an increase or it will be very presale heavy, however even if thats the case, we dont know how it will affect it

 

ps do you rememeber if the presales were more spreadout ? or like thursday ?

Edited July 6, 2019 by john2000

[RamblinRed]

13 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

So you are saying this year Top 6 is 99% Disney and Top 7 has 10% chances. 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤑🤑🤑

 

EG

TLK

Frozen

SW9

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin 

 

This is insane. Also FFH can be counted as Disney movie under Sony's cloth. 

 

 

I have it as

AE

TROS (TLJ did 620 and TROS will go up from that total)

TLK

FR2

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin

 

But either way you are talking the top 6 being Disney films and 7 of the top 8. The only other film is a Marvel film by another studio.

Disney already passed 2B DOM before the end of June (not counting Fox movies), no other studios as likely to make 2B this year imo.

I'm thinking it crosses 3B the weekend F2 comes out (it will be around 2.1B after this weekend, probably be at 2.15 the day before TLK releases). TLK and M2 DOM totals should put it close enough to 3B to get over that mark FR2 opening weekend. Then is ends the year with TROS. Won't make it to 4B but it should easily cross 3.5B DOM for the year. 

 

If you include Fox movies in the total the combined is going to be close to 4B by Dec 31.

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

I have it as

AE

TROS (TLJ did 620 and TROS will go up from that total)

TLK

FR2

CM

TS4

FFH

Aladdin

 

But either way you are talking the top 6 being Disney films and 7 of the top 8. The only other film is a Marvel film by another studio.

Disney already passed 2B DOM before the end of June (not counting Fox movies), no other studios as likely to make 2B this year imo.

I'm thinking it crosses 3B the weekend F2 comes out (it will be around 2.1B after this weekend, probably be at 2.15 the day before TLK releases). TLK and M2 DOM totals should put it close enough to 3B to get over that mark FR2 opening weekend. Then is ends the year with TROS. Won't make it to 4B but it should easily cross 3.5B DOM for the year. 

 

If you include Fox movies in the total the combined is going to be close to 4B by Dec 31.

 

You are forgetting Maleficent 2.I think it has heat enough to do 150M+  After this weekend :

 

30m from Alaadin 

100m from TS4

650m from TLK

150m from M2

550m from frozen 2

450m from SW9

 

2.1b+1.93b= 4.03b 

 

 

[john2000]

IMO,

captain marvel 426

endgame 855

aladdin 350

dumbo 114

lion king 700

maleficent 200

toy story 420

frozen 2 500

460 for star wars 

4, billion

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by john2000

[Guest]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

IMO,

captain marvel 426

endgame 855

aladdin 350

dumbo 114

lion king 700

maleficent 200

toy story 420

frozen 2 500

star wars 550 bc it only has like what ? 10 days ?

4,1 billion

Very optimistic for 10days total of Star Wars. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, GrandierHorror said:

Very optimistic for 10days total of Star Wars. 

yep edited, it has 17 days 

[TwoMisfits]

I'm gonna join the "don't be certain FFH is dropping today" crowd...

 

1. Canada is an uber-supers area...they contribute about 10% to BO...they did not have off yesterday, so matinees there will necessarily be stronger today.

2. Yesterday was not a holiday for all Americans...all the feds were in session...most businesses were, too...yes, a lot of folks take vacation that day, but it's not as high as an actual holiday

3. Saturdays are Marvel days...they tend to be full family movies, and a lot of families wait to get everyone together to go.

4. This year has seen Saturdays play stronger than normal vs Fridays all year...not saying that can't change, but a trend is a trend.

5. Non Homecoming fans are hearing how much better this Spidey is than they thought it would be...and now might be looking for tickets...this won't be like Wonder Woman, way too many people loved Tom and Spidey going in, but a bump is possible there.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Guest]

Just now, john2000 said:

yep edited, it has 17 days 

It's releasing on December 20. Only 12 days. So around 450m.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

It's releasing on December 20. Only 12 days. So around 450m.

fucking hell, completly missed it

[JimiQ]

Jumanji could top CM if received well

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if true then we will see an increase or it will be very presale heavy, however even if thats the case, we dont know how it will affect it

 

ps do you rememeber if the presales were more spreadout ? or like thursday ?

With Pulse it's impossible to tell

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

With Pulse it's impossible to tell

oh i see, but from the moment that its not a holiday , it could be presale heavy like tuesday or have an increase

fingers crossed

Edited July 6, 2019 by john2000