Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

[Fullbuster]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Guess it wasn't higher than initially predicted. Oh well, it'll still reach 100M WW it looks like.

 

Box Office + Premier Access will probably make it break even or slightly profitable, which is a victory in times of pandemics.

 

[Legion Again]

About 50 DOM and 70 OS I guess. 

[DAJK]

12 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Box Office + Premier Access will probably make it break even or slightly profitable, which is a victory in times of pandemics.

 

Maybe, but we do not have premier access numbers, and I can't imagine the budget is less than 150M. So if it makes ~120WW, Disney keeps say 70 of that, that's still a long road to profitability. 

[Fullbuster]

49 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

About 50 DOM and 70 OS I guess. 

Is France taken into account in this estimate? Disney wants a theatrical release here and want to release it as soon as theaters open again.

[Fullbuster]

41 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Maybe, but we do not have premier access numbers, and I can't imagine the budget is less than 150M. So if it makes ~120WW, Disney keeps say 70 of that, that's still a long road to profitability. 

 

Mulan made $90m in 2 weeks, mostly in the US. Raya seems to appeal to more people as it's a more family oriented movie and it'll be available through PA in much more countries than Mulan was while also benefiting from more subscribers.

 

More than $100m for Disney through PA shouldn't be a problem.

[Krissykins]

Raya came out on the 5th and was #1 on Disney+ here in the UK on March the 9th for one day. 
 

Moana has been #1 again since. 

Edited March 14, 2021 by Krissykins

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Guess it wasn't higher than initially predicted. Oh well, it'll still reach 100M WW it looks like.

Thinking $45-55M DOM & $65-70M OS.

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Mulan made $90m in 2 weeks, mostly in the US. Raya seems to appeal to more people as it's a more family oriented movie and it'll be available through PA in much more countries than Mulan was while also benefiting from more subscribers.

 

More than $100m for Disney through PA shouldn't be a problem.

Mulan is a known brand and had much more conversation around it. The live action remakes are usually bigger than their recent animated films. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Disney keeps say 70 of that, that's still a long road to profitability. 

Disney with $120M will get around $50-55M.

 If nothing else, will cover the release cost of the film, leaving Disney + in-house valuation + Premium Access + TV in-house valuation + Home Media to recover the cost.

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Disney with $120M will get around $50-55M.

 If nothing else, will cover the release cost of the film, leaving Disney + in-house valuation + Premium Access + TV in-house valuation + Home Media to recover the cost.

Fair! I gave a generous guess, moreso to make the point that even being generous it's not like one should triumphantly call Raya some sort of unqualified success.

[Fullbuster]

39 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fair! I gave a generous guess, moreso to make the point that even being generous it's not like one should triumphantly call Raya some sort of unqualified success.

 

A success in a time of pandemics.

 

Looks good to me

[DAJK]

22 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

A success in a time of pandemics.

 

Looks good to me

Alright bud  

 

I'm just glad you enjoyed the movie

Edited March 14, 2021 by DAJK

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Guys I think your calculation is way off.

 

Raya cost 100-150 mil. on production budget, plus 150 on global P&A (most of it for China/Japan where tv spots are very expensive); to break even it would likely take 2,5x its production budget, which would mean a 250 mil profit if said budget =100 mil, or 375 mil. if the budget is 150 mil.

 

Even at the lowest possible budget, 100 mil, there is no way this doesn't loose north of 50 mil. 

 

If the overseas box office gathers 75 mil, disney gets about 30 mil (35% approx, given that it only takes 25 % out Of China and 40% out of most of the others countries).

Then, there is USA, where the run could end at 50 mil; in that case, the B.O. income for Disney would be about 30 mil.

 

So we have 60 mil. net income from B.O. : let's say it earns 100 mil. from D+, we are at 160 mil. total income. It needs 250 to break even, so there is a 90 mil. loss.

 

If the production budget is in the 150's millions, then its loss coul be 375-160 = 215 mil, aka the biggest box office bomb ever.

 

How on earth can it break even? there is literally no mathematical way.

Edited March 15, 2021 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[ThomasNicole]

51 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Guys I think your calculation is way off.

 

Raya cost 100-150 mil. on production budget, plus 150 on global P&A (most of it for China/Japan where tv spots are very expensive); to break even it would likely take 2,5x its production budget, which would mean a 250 mil profit if said budget =100 mil, or 375 mil. if the budget is 150 mil.

 

Even at the lowest possible budget, 100 mil, there is no way this doesn't loose north of 50 mil. 

 

If the overseas box office gathers 75 mil, disney gets about 30 mil (35% approx, given that it only takes 25 % out Of China and 40% out of most of the others countries).

Then, there is USA, where the run could end at 50 mil; in that case, the B.O. income for Disney would be about 30 mil.

 

So we have 60 mil. net income from B.O. : let's say it earns 100 mil. from D+, we are at 160 mil. total income. It needs 250 to break even, so there is a 90 mil. loss.

 

If the production budget is in the 150's millions, then its loss coul be 375-160 = 215 mil, aka the biggest box office bomb ever.

 

How on earth can it break even? there is literally no mathematical way.

I´m pretty sure they didn´t spent $ 150M on P&A knowing that the movie obviously wouldn´t gross as nearly as it could before pandemic... and because everything about the marketing on this movie are terrible.

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I´m pretty sure they didn´t spent $ 150M on P&A knowing that the movie obviously wouldn´t gross as nearly as it could before pandemic... and because everything about the marketing on this movie are terrible.

 

Just like movies, the quality of the ads doesn't always represent the cost of the ads:).

 

In the end, it is a "present" disaster for Disney.  For no more money in their pockets, they soured worldwide theater relationships even more than they were before.  With even fewer worldwide viewers (whether or not they made up for that overall revenue in high priced digital downloads), they have torched the monetary value of the current merchandise for the movie (I wouldn't be surprised if losses there end up higher than losses on the movie if deals were done pre-Covid).

 

Can this be recovered - sure, if it has a 2nd life as a "free" movie on D+...but for now, they really, really didn't do anything right with this release...they lost in every area they could (I mean, they even flubbed consumer and theatrical goodwill in the era of almost no way of doing that if you put out product)...

Edited March 15, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

30 day window for normal home release, same as Mulan apparently. 

 

Digital release moves up earlier than planned to 2nd April. Disc is available to buy on 18th May 

 

Wonder if that short window is whats putting people off paying the $30. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Raya cost 100-150 mil. on production budget, plus 150 on global P&A (most of it for China/Japan where tv spots are very expensive); to break even it would likely take 2,5x its production budget, which would mean a 250 mil profit if said budget =100 mil, or 375 mil. if the budget is 150 mil.

 

I don't think anyone said or think Raya will actually breakeven. It hasn't released in half the world, that $150 P&A is for full release for big event films. Raya will be close to $50M, which it will mostly recover.

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think anyone said or think Raya will actually breakeven. It hasn't released in half the world, that $150 P&A is for full release for big event films. Raya will be close to $50M, which it will mostly recover.

 

On 3/14/2021 at 9:53 AM, Fullbuster said:

 

Box Office + Premier Access will probably make it break even or slightly profitable, which is a victory in times of pandemics.

 

    

[Fullbuster]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

    

 

Yes

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Yes

Just correcting the official record.  

 

(I feel it ain't snitch tagging when the post I am quoting is at the top of the current page of the forum. )

 

===

 

As it is, Raya might break even after a lengthy stay on home media/however the hell Disney values internal numbers when it comes to views on D+.  I have to break with you, however, when it comes to box office + premiere access, as I think that's too tough a hill to climb. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by Porthos