Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Gopher]

Not sure it's been posted here-- Quorum tracking is bad for this. 38 awareness, 5.8 interest. By comparison-- Creed III is at 47/6.1, Scream IV 54/6.2. Possible there's a lag in checking these stats after the new trailer settles in, but the lack of awareness is stunning to me considering the trailer attachments to Panther and Avatar. 

 

I think they're going to run into the problem of general audiences not knowing how seriously to take a "serious" Ant-Man movie. I enjoyed Multiverse of Madness for the Raimi of it all, but I think they're gonna look back on that one as a huge missed opportunity as far as not using the platform of a movie that seemed important to general audiences to extend the universe the way Quantumania theoretically is. 

 

The only thing this will benefit from is a total lack of tentpoles between now and its release. But March is competitive and legs will be less kind than the Summer weekday-boosted first two Ant Men.

 

Will guess 82/100/210 for now. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Gopher

[Verrows]

15 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Not sure it's been posted here-- Quorum tracking is bad for this. 38 awareness, 5.8 interest. By comparison-- Creed III is at 47/6.1, Scream IV 54/6.2. Possible there's a lag in checking these stats after the new trailer settles in, but the lack of awareness is stunning to me considering the trailer attachments to Panther and Avatar. 

 

I think they're going to run into the problem of general audiences not knowing how seriously to take a "serious" Ant-Man movie. I enjoyed Multiverse of Madness for the Raimi of it all, but I think they're gonna look back on that one as a huge missed opportunity as far as not using the platform of a movie that seemed important to general audiences to extend the universe the way Quantumania theoretically is. 

 

The only thing this will benefit from is a total lack of tentpoles between now and its release. But March is competitive and legs will be less kind than the Summer weekday-boosted first two Ant Men.

 

Will guess 82/100/210 for now. 

Yeah I don't care if it's an Ant-Man movie, that's a bad look for any Marvel studios production.

 

Sticking to my $110M 3-day predict because I'd rather just stick to it, but those metrics are sobering indeed.

 

@Jeight @SpiderByte THIS is why people say that the MCU is losing steam. Not to long ago there no Marvel movie would be coming with this little awareness and interest.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Trying to deny franchise fatigue would be hopelessly naive at this point. A movie like this should have blazed past $100M in its opening weekend, but because of the Disney+ overload and polarizing reception of Phase 4 a lot of people are tuning out and this might actually open lower than the second movie. The second trailer dropped off pretty hard from the first one on YouTube, and these Quorum numbers seem to reflect that.

[exomassey]

Doesn’t it just come down to expectation though? 
 

Ant Man and the Wasp only managed 622m WW even though it was between Infinity War/ Endgame and had a Chinese release.

 

Marvel saying this is the next Civil War is stupid as well considering there is not another single Avenger in this film to help give it a boost.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Comparing Quorum on other franchises to MCU movies can be a bit dangerous. I recall Shang-Chi having lower awareness and interest than Free Guy. Ant-Man awareness is a bit low but interest seems fine considering expected OW, in between origin movies and the mega sequels.

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Verrows said:

 

 

@Jeight @SpiderByte THIS is why people say that the MCU is losing steam. Not to long ago there no Marvel movie would be coming with this little awareness and interest.

This is just not true. Shang-Chi and Eternals were lower on these metrics. 

[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

This is just not true. Shang-Chi and Eternals were lower on these metrics. 

Well I guess that depends on our subjective views and expectations for the film. I might have higher expectations for Qyantimania than others, which is why being higher than Shang-Chi or Eternals on these metrics doesn't say much for me.

 

Just have to wait for OW. I feel like Marvel selling this as something bigger so if it's on par with Ant-Man 2 opening we can't just say "Well it's an Ant-Man movie".

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Well I guess that depends on our subjective views and expectations for the film. I might have higher expectations for Qyantimania than others, which is why being higher than Shang-Chi or Eternals on these metrics doesn't say much for me.

 

Just have to wait for OW. I feel like Marvel selling this as something bigger so if it's on par with Ant-Man 2 opening we can't just say "Well it's an Ant-Man movie".

Feel free to have whatever expectations you want, I just think it's silly how people here are acting like this is some new low for an MCU movie. It's perfectly within the norm for a lower-tier opener. 

[YM!]

Tbh I think expecting a Civil War/MoM increase for Quantumania from the jump seemed hard without any additional avengers or crossover but I think it’ll be an increase similar to Dark World/Guardians 2 domestically. Something like 90/255.

 

Not the 300m+ people wanted but not the barely over 200m. Tbh I expected that as a whole for MCU post Endgame or at least the Multiverse saga, the fanbase is still strong but a portion probably won’t come back like they used. To clarify, this doesn’t mean every film will do 250m domestic for the record as I am thinking for Quantumania. It’ll be like Phase 2. Box office wise, you will have your big hits like Multiverse of Madness and No Way Home and even though Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars won’t reach IW/EG heights, 1.5B-2.2B is about right. We will get more 600-750m grossers and a few just around 400-500m mainly the origins. Some sequels will fall because they were too big the first time (Wakanda, The Marvels, Spider-Man 4, and the aforementioned KD/SW duo) and while it won’t reach the potential some want, they’ll do well enough. I’m going to bold my main point to clarify because it gets lost for some.

 

That is what is meant by diminishing returns. In that we won’t get the mega hits from Phase 3 in which the average was close to 1B, and be more similar to Phase 2. Or kind of like Pixar in the 2010s. The films are still hits but it won’t be like the heyday.

Edited January 14, 2023 by YM!

[Mr Terrific]

There’s some reason to the saturation argument. Not sure it will apply here. 
GA is going to so exhausted from watching/not watching She-Hulk and Ms. Marvel that they won’t see this?

 

[TwoMisfits]

So, my youngest is all-in for this.

 

Weirdly, I'm not.  Maybe it's b/c I struggle to "buy" a really dark and serious Scott Lang character.  I mean, Hank Pym Ant-Man - yes, go as dark and serious as you want.  But Scott Lang was never the "dark" Ant-Man in the comics, and this just seems dark for his series of movies...

 

But, b/c my youngest is all-in, we'll probably be buying multiple tickets for this, which we haven't for an MCU this Thor (the only MCU tickets we bought in 2022)...so I dunno...

 

Don't ask me where this opens...I just hope it's better quality than the MCUs I've seen lately...(I still have Wakanda Forever to go, so I probably do have the best of 2022 still to see...but that's now all I'm behind in Phase 4)...

Edited January 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Feel free to have whatever expectations you want, I just think it's silly how people here are acting like this is some new low for an MCU movie. It's perfectly within the norm for a lower-tier opener. 

That's fair. I'll defer to you then because I'm not in any way familiar with Quorum. It just seemed a little alarming at face value I guess.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, my youngest is all-in for this.

 

Weirdly, I'm not.  Maybe it's b/c I struggle to "buy" a really dark and serious Scott Lang character.  I mean, Hank Pym Ant-Man - yes, go as dark and serious as you want.  But Scott Lang was never the "dark" Ant-Man in the comics, and this just seems dark for his series of movies...

 

But, b/c my youngest is all-in, we'll probably be buying multiple tickets for this, which we haven't for an MCU this Thor (the only MCU tickets we bought in 2022)...so I dunno...

 

Don't ask me where this opens...I just hope it's better quality than the MCUs I've seen lately...(I still have Wakanda Forever to go, so I probably do have the best of 2022 still to see...but that's now all I'm behind in Phase 4)...

For me it's all about Kang, and that's what makes it more "dark" or "serious". It's not necessarily that the essence of the character or his world has changed.

 

And Kang is also the driving force behind my interest in it. It feels like the audience is going to come out of this having the best feel for where the MCU than at any other point in the multiverse saga. Naturally, this is why I also have elevated expectations box office wise but I admit that I could be projecting this view on the rest of the audience when in fact they may not really care for the most part and this could be just another Ant-Man film to them.

[thajdikt]

It´s still an Ant-Man movie. A franchise that hasn´t managed to crack 500M without China. The movie might be big in terms for the universe but the box office won´t explode. 550-600M would be great imo. Saying this movie should be an easy 100M 3-day when the last one got 75M in prime MCU only is very optimistic. The GA doesn´t know Kang. Kang being in there and the movie being good isn´t going to make this suddenly a 700-800M hit. I just don´t see it. It being compared to Civil War is about the effect it has on the universe going forward.

 

People can talk about the D+ show as reason for fatigue and all that but most of the GA don´t watch those shows. Those have a much smaller fan driven audience.  Moon Knight was still airing when MoM came out and the world was insanely hyped for it. A movie that got to 940M despite most not liking it. Moon Knight was the 6th MCU show in 1,5 years. So I disagree about that it´s because of the D+ shows that we have seen this downward trend. I would argue that the movies themselves have done more harm. MoM and Thor had bad WOM. That´s what killed them. Imagine if those movies had normal MCU WOM. MoM is prob over 1B and Love and Thunder is prob 825M without China. The MCU has always done well at the box office because of the quality of the movies. The audiences have liked them very much. WOM that says go watch this movie and you will have a great time. That hasn´t been there this year. Even WF is a very somber movie that hasn´t the usual oh what a great fun time at the cinema even thought it was in general well received.

 

This movie is not the movie to judge the MCU as a whole on. If WF forever gets to 800M then this one should pop the champagne at 550M+. Especially in the streaming era: Ant-Man movie smells wait for streaming. I still think 85 ish would be great for the 3-day. 

[lilmac]

Ant Man 3 budget
https://www.thefilmik.com/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-budget/
$200m budget before P&A (prints and advertising)

 

Black Panther 2 budget 
https://www.thefilmik.com/is-black-panther-wakanda-forever-hit-or-flop-hows-the-sequel-performed-at-box-office/
$450M with P&A
 

[Factcheck]

1 hour ago, lilmac said:

Ant Man 3 budget
https://www.thefilmik.com/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-budget/
$200m budget before P&A (prints and advertising)

 

Black Panther 2 budget 
https://www.thefilmik.com/is-black-panther-wakanda-forever-hit-or-flop-hows-the-sequel-performed-at-box-office/
$450M with P&A
 

If this report of WF's $450M budget with P&A is correct, then it may go into loss; whether it makes profit or not will depend upon how much money it makes through TV rights.
Budget with P&A 450M
video cost 60m
interest 40M
participations 45M
residuals 30M
Total cost 625M

Revenue-
Dom cut 235M
OS cut 156M
TV rights: 150-200M
home entertainment 50M
Total revenue 590-640M

Profit or loss: -35M/+15M

[SpiderByte]

15 hours ago, Verrows said:

Jeight @SpiderByte THIS is why people say that the MCU is losing steam. Not to long ago there no Marvel movie would be coming with this little awareness and interest.

The quoted post predicts it having the highest opening weekend of all three movies. Though I'm sure people will point to worldwide underperformance since it doesn't have China to boost it

 

It's not Marvel losing steam, it's the entire film industry post covid.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by SpiderByte

[SpiderByte]

14 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Trying to deny franchise fatigue would be hopelessly naive at this point. A movie like this should have blazed past $100M in its opening weekend, but because of the Disney+ overload and polarizing reception of Phase 4 a lot of people are tuning out and this might actually open lower than the second movie. The second trailer dropped off pretty hard from the first one on YouTube, and these Quorum numbers seem to reflect that.

Again, you guys have blinders on. You don't think the worldwide, industry wide lower performances of basically every movie but Avatar and Spider-Man maybe, just maybe, is a sign that it's not Marvel Fatigue? The same Marvel fatigue that people allege will happen for every Marvel movie since 2012?

Edited January 14, 2023 by SpiderByte

[JustLurking]

15 hours ago, Gopher said:

Not sure it's been posted here-- Quorum tracking is bad for this. 38 awareness, 5.8 interest. By comparison-- Creed III is at 47/6.1, Scream IV 54/6.2. Possible there's a lag in checking these stats after the new trailer settles in, but the lack of awareness is stunning to me considering the trailer attachments to Panther and Avatar. 

 

I think they're going to run into the problem of general audiences not knowing how seriously to take a "serious" Ant-Man movie. I enjoyed Multiverse of Madness for the Raimi of it all, but I think they're gonna look back on that one as a huge missed opportunity as far as not using the platform of a movie that seemed important to general audiences to extend the universe the way Quantumania theoretically is. 

 

The only thing this will benefit from is a total lack of tentpoles between now and its release. But March is competitive and legs will be less kind than the Summer weekday-boosted first two Ant Men.

 

Will guess 82/100/210 for now. 

Did notice Quorum was bad, but I don't think it's going to be this gloom a performance even so. Quorum isn't always that precise and while certainly useful I think it's a bit of a slippery slope to give it this much importance. Ticket sales are soon at this point though so let's see what happens.

 

Do agree that this is not the film they should've attached Kang's major cinematic debut to, though, especially since this is where they really start laying down the foundation to the next MCU saga. Getting that build-up going can be hard if the audiences aren't there for the groundwork to begin with.

[THUNDER BIRD]

40 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Again, you guys have blinders on. You don't think the worldwide, industry wide lower performances of basically every movie but Avatar and Spider-Man maybe, just maybe, is a sign that it's not Marvel Fatigue? The same Marvel fatigue that people allege will happen for every Marvel movie since 2012?

Just because something was wrong in 2012, doesn't mean it'll be wrong in 2022 too.

 

Anyways it's not Marvel Fatigue, it's the saturation of product and the low quality of product.

 

Eventually it'll lead to that.