Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

[Legion Again]

It is pretty awkward to be a winter movie rreleasing when half the world is summer.    

 

I usually try to be pretty qualitively minded, but in this case I don't really have the numbers to back it up. I just think this will strike the right note and explode. 900+

[Jamiem]

17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It is pretty awkward to be a winter movie rreleasing when half the world is summer.    

Coming from someone who will be in the summer “half” of the world I think it is better to aim for a Northern Hemisphere winter as it contains most of the major markets (US/Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea and a decent part of China) rather than the other way around. Plus it will likely benefit from an Xmas/holidays bump around the world even if it’s stinking hot in some places. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

TS4 did 72M just in Mexico alone. 

I was going to say, 

"Agree with everything you said, but this changes everything completely. Yeah Frozen 1 might not have done Pixar numbers, but that doesn't mean Frozen 2 can't do those as we have seen sequel growth for many films in LA.

 

For comparison, I am putting Ralph and Ralph 2 LA numbers, now they had roughly same ER impact and both are Disney sequels."

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

Wreck-it Ralph did $68.5 million

Latin America
Market	Release Date	Opening	Gross
Argentina	Jan 3, 2013	$1,548,217	$7,668,945
Bolivia	Dec 25, 2012	$123,326	$669,096
Brazil	Jan 4, 2013	$3,531,264	$21,368,787
Chile	Dec 27, 2012	–	$3,518,702
Colombia	Jan 4, 2013	$1,770,951	$4,972,215
Ecuador	Jan 11, 2013	$526,516	$2,030,353
Mexico	Nov 1, 2012	$3,938,961	$14,246,944
Peru	Dec 25, 2012	$553,582	$2,614,532
Uruguay	Dec 28, 2012	$18,475	$241,289
Venezuela	Dec 28, 2012	$1,066,015	$11,182,824

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet did $52.5 million.

Latin America
Market	Release Date	Opening	Gross
Argentina	Jan 3, 2019	$1,486,813	$6,412,466
Bolivia	Dec 6, 2018	$179,850	$1,073,431
Brazil	Jan 3, 2019	$4,825,895	$17,332,960
Chile	Nov 22, 2018	$663,440	$4,231,371
Colombia	Nov 22, 2018	$1,016,867	$4,376,407
Mexico	Nov 23, 2018	$6,167,792	$17,403,188
Paraguay	Dec 6, 2018	$53,269	$248,624
Uruguay	Jan 3, 2019	$46,722	$370,072
Venezuela	Nov 30, 2018	$240,689	$780,731

But now that I have seen that Ralph, which looked like will have good growth, releasing 6 years after the beloved original, but failed to do so due to ER and obviously not so great reception, I think Frozen 2 will fall to same results. When the year started, I was convinced on this happening, but teaser trailer changed that perception, but now after few trailers, I think the excitement peaked too early for me just like Ralph 2, and I am expecting the OS-Japan to show same trend of Ralph 2 over Ralph.

 

Ralph 2 did $293mn OS-Japan, while Ralph did $252mn, growing 16%. Frozen did $623mn, say it grow 15% to $715mn, and Japan do as much as Weathering With You to Your Name ratio, we are looking at $850mn overseas.  May be reduce another 5% growth as ER has worsened since last year same time, that gives $820mn Overseas, that will be my target.

 

PS. New Mojo rocks for international numbers classification in region wise.

PS 2. @Thanos Legion food for qualitative method?

Edited November 6, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

53 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Coming from someone who will be in the summer “half” of the world I think it is better to aim for a Northern Hemisphere winter as it contains most of the major markets (US/Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea and a decent part of China) rather than the other way around. Plus it will likely benefit from an Xmas/holidays bump around the world even if it’s stinking hot in some places. 

Oh, for sure. Releasing a winter movie in June to try to grab Southern winter would be a terrible idea. It's just an inconvenience  compared to if the whole world somehow had winter synchronized

[Legion Again]

Alright, @Charlie Jatinder just provided what looks like a good numerical framework to me. I would day that I'm on the same page J, probably a more pessimistic even OS-C-J, but setting myself up for disappointment by dreaming C.

[keysersoze123]

FYI I asked Corpse about potential of F2 in Japan. This was his response. So the big question is will into the unknown become another Let it go. Or will another song in the movie hit the perfect storm. SInce the sountrack is releasing a week early, we will know how things go there by the time the movie opens.

 

Quote

It's probably safe to assume a ~40% decline, but a lot also has to do with how the music resonates this time around. As you said, the success of the original is "impossible" to replicate, but another "Let It Go" smash would go a long way.

And if it does see what's become the standard ~40% decline that follow-ups to ultra-blockbusters (literally less than a handful of films) follow, no one should take this as a disappointing result. ¥15 billion is the milestone that's typically seen as the ceiling for anything. Something phenomenal must occur (almost always related to music in the market, or something major like a retirement) on a huge scale that can reach and attract a significant number of casual audiences to break that ceiling.

You'll notice a huge jump on the all-time chart with the films ranked #10-20 (¥12-15 billion range) to the top ranked films in the top 10 -- the grosses (and admissions) basically double due to attracting non-movie audiences.

 

[KP1025]

40% decline would still be good enough for Frozen II to cross ¥15 billion and win the year in Japan over Weathering With You.

Edited November 6, 2019 by KP1025

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

40% decline would still be good enough for Frozen II to cross ¥15 billion and win the year in Japan over Weathering With You.

How about XR impact and 3D ratios compared to 2012. Would that increase/decrease the gross in $ terms.

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about XR impact and 3D ratios compared to 2012. Would that increase/decrease the gross in $ terms.

 

Frozen grossed ¥25.5 billion, which was approximately $250 million in 2014 according to Corpse's chart. 40% drop in yen to ¥15.3 billion would be $140 million today, a drop of 44% in USD. 

 

As for 3D share and average ticket price, 2019 levels are slightly higher than 2014 according to Corpse:

 

Quote

3D was incredibly popular in Japan from 2010-2012, so pretty much every 3D release had incredibly high average ticket prices due to 3D shares regularly coming in over 75/80%. 3D quickly lost its popularity though, with shares plummeting to 20/30% during the mid-years of this decade, before rising a bit in recent years to around 40% or so today on average.  

Ticket prices in Japan have indeed been stable for decades, though they have seen regular gains year-on-year since 2015 due to theaters increasing general ticket prices, in addition to other premium formats such as IMAX and 4DX gaining some traction.

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by KP1025

[Carlangonz]

On 11/5/2019 at 2:25 PM, Purple Minion said:

More data: Frozen did about 95M in Latin America: 27% Mexico, 23% Brazil, 13% Venezuela, 12% Argentina. With the ER shenanigans, Frozen II should aim for a 75-80M total in the region; anything over that should be a great achievement.

 

  Hide contents

TS4 did 72M just in Mexico alone. 

 

Brazil should perform better than the rest of the region compared to Toy Story 4 but as for other countries even Incredibles 2 seems like a long stretch, let alone Coco. If there's a WDAS sequel that sets Latin America on fire is Zootopia 2, not Frozen 2. 

 

Hopefully I'm wrong, it'll be great to finish the year on a high note because we know TROS won't do that.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Carlangonz

[keysersoze123]

I Hope this breaks out. Its boring that after Joker BO has been really dull. We need both F2, Jumanji 2 and SW9 breaking out big.

[peludo]

Spain - Presales at Kinepolis Madrid (biggest theater of the country)

 

15 days to go:

The Lion King: 635 tickets (4 day-OW) - 29 showtimes

Frozen 2: 558 (3 day-OW) - 32 showtimes

 

* TLK is the most similar to an animated film which I have ever tracked.

[PKMLover]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

Spain - Presales at Kinepolis Madrid (biggest theater of the country)

 

15 days to go:

The Lion King: 635 tickets (4 day-OW) - 29 showtimes

Frozen 2: 558 (3 day-OW) - 32 showtimes

 

* TLK is the most similar to an animated film which I have ever tracked.

Good or bad sign??

[peludo]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

Good or bad sign??

The Lion King opened to $8m 4-day OW and it is the 5th biggest film ever. I guess it is a good sign

[salvador-232]

There are even more problems for Frozen in Latin America . The crisis in Chile doesn't show any sign of abating and cinemas are running at like a quarter of capacity (they aren't even doing presales). On top of that, said crisis has pushed the ER to a 16 year record low. If Disney doesn't move it then I think is going to be basically DOA (Though there rumors that authorities are going to cancel the school year, so that would be helpful I guess...) 

 

In recent years Chile has usually been the third largest market in USD in LA unless Argentina goes crazy for a movie.

Edited November 8, 2019 by salvador-232

[Sunny Max]

6 hours ago, peludo said:

Spain - Presales at Kinepolis Madrid (biggest theater of the country)

 

15 days to go:

The Lion King: 635 tickets (4 day-OW) - 29 showtimes

Frozen 2: 558 (3 day-OW) - 32 showtimes

 

* TLK is the most similar to an animated film which I have ever tracked.

Good start ... 

[catlover]

On 11/6/2019 at 7:53 AM, Thanos Legion said:

It is pretty awkward to be a winter movie rreleasing when half the world is summer.    

 

Not really "half" when around 90% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, catlover said:

Not really "half" when around 90% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere.

Geographically half is what I meant. By population indeed it’s just like 1/8th the world that will be starting summer, which is not so bad but still kind of awkward.

[salvador-232]

On 11/8/2019 at 2:45 PM, salvador-232 said:

There are even more problems for Frozen in Latin America . The crisis in Chile doesn't show any sign of abating and cinemas are running at like a quarter of capacity (they aren't even doing presales). On top of that, said crisis has pushed the ER to a 16 year record low. If Disney doesn't move it then I think is going to be basically DOA (Though there rumors that authorities are going to cancel the school year, so that would be helpful I guess...) 

 

In recent years Chile has usually been the third largest market in USD in LA unless Argentina goes crazy for a movie.

Moved to January 2nd. 

 

Well, if by that date the government has fallen then it has a chance to do well. 

[VanillaSkies]

6 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

Moved to January 2nd. 

 

Well, if by that date the government has fallen then it has a chance to do well. 

They were smart to move it.