WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Eric Laurence said:

Here I was thinking I was being pessimistic this year.

Little Women and Uncut Gems disappointing and Ford v Ferrari/Knives Out having somewhat mediocre legs after their big openings have done a number on me combined with the Star Wars stuff. Like I was predicting 120m for 1917 and 60m for Just Mercy for a long time but now I've dropped that to 75/40 respectively.

[Cooper Legion]

Knives Out legging to like 140M is mediocre????   
 

Anyway, no big CBMs yet means no real controversy     
 

I’ll go 300M for Mulan, 240 for Onward, boring as mud.

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Little Women and Uncut Gems disappointing and Ford v Ferrari/Knives Out having somewhat mediocre legs after their big openings have done a number on me combined with the Star Wars stuff. Like I was predicting 120m for 1917 and 60m for Just Mercy for a long time but now I've dropped that to 75/40 respectively.

I agree with the first couple, but Knives Out is doing fine? It's about to do, what, 130M? Probably more? That would make it the biggest live-action Thanksgiving opener since Enchanted. That'll give Rian Johnson one or two more non-Lucasfilm projects.

 

And while I'm being nice to Quiet Place 2, definitely expect some carnage towards a good chunk of movies. Not spoiling anything, but let's just say things aren't going to be pretty in the second half.

[WrathOfHan]

46 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I love you guys and love you both for doing this, but the thing is every year your predictions would make it the greatest year in box office history, when in reality the box office is slow, shitty, and nothing really breaks out now except MCU and Disney remakes. I recommend lowering everything by 30%. 

 

A Quiet Place 2 seems like one of the more obvious steep drops in recent memory - it's like the Ted 2 of horror movies. Novelty gonna novelty. 

 

Mulan gonna threaten 400m tho. 

I mean, I haven't predicted anything to hit 200M yet, and although I'm predicting one April film to cross that threshold, I think it will do that barely.

[Morieris]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I mean, I haven't predicted anything to hit 200M yet, and although I'm predicting one April film to cross that threshold, I think it will do that barely.

 

I'm glad someone still has confidence in New Mutants.

[Pinacolada]

6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Little Women and Uncut Gems disappointing and Ford v Ferrari/Knives Out having somewhat mediocre legs after their big openings have done a number on me combined with the Star Wars stuff. Like I was predicting 120m for 1917 and 60m for Just Mercy for a long time but now I've dropped that to 75/40 respectively.

 

I feel like this is unfair for all of these movies. Little Women going for $27m+ 5 day opening is just fine, and Uncut Gems getting $20m is excellent for that film and an A24 release. Knives Out is having terrific legs as it's looking to have a $20m 5 day week as well. And Ford v Ferrari has done well enough. It's domestic numbers are solid. I think it got screwed a bit by an onslaught of Adult-oriented, counter programming movies, soon after its release like KO, ABDITN. It lost theaters to those movies. Knives Out still has 2000 or so over Christmas, whereas FvF has 700 or so due to no1currs like Richard Jewell, and Bombshell, and Cats, etc, but since they're newer releases, they get the higher theater counts. I would agree that after a $31.5m OW, an A+ cinemascore, and fantastic critics reviews it should have had 4x+ legs, but it's still looking at 3.5x, and a $115ish million finish domestically. That's a win for that movie. That movies disappointment is the international box office. Hopefully it can get a China release date soon, and after Knives Out raked in a near $30m over there, I think Ford v Ferrari can easily match that.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Pinacolada

[cannastop]

14 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Mulan gonna threaten 400m tho. 

Nah I don't feel it.

[Eric Prime]

April 3

Fatherhood: Kevin Hart saw great success in dramatic work with The Upside, depsite having a wave of bad press behind it. A drama about parenthood and being a single dad seems like one that’s easy to sell, especially with Hart as the star. It’ll open okay, and play well throughout April. 22/85 (3.86x)

 

The Lovebirds: Judging by the cast and crew, I’m looking forward to this one. The director of The Big Sick, and Issa Rae and Kumail Nanjiani star, so this should be quality. The premise also seems fun enough, reading off the IMDB page. So long as the trailer and reviews deliver, this should be a minor little success. Maybe even in the vicinity of Blockers or Game Night, but let's just be a little pessimistic for now. 17/55 (3.23x)

 

The New Mutants: I was going to make a funny joke that was just “this is never coming out lol”, but some people have heard through the grapevine a trailer will drop in January, so I guess this is for reals happening. Regardless, this is still gonna be a dud. Even with the Marvel connections, nobody cares about this X-Men nonsense anymore (y’know, until Papa Feige saves the day), and Disney’s been fumbling lately with the Fox movies that got dumped in their hands. And with all the competition, with Mulan the week before and Black Widow after...yeah, Disney’s leaving this to die. Sorry Anya. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway: The first movie was a surprise critical and commercial hit, and had amazing legs in spite of Black Panther’s monster success. But I don’t really see the same success here. Not only is it being sandwiched between buzzier kids movies like Onward, Mulan and Trolls, this feels like SLOP, where people liked but didn’t love the first movie, and weren’t super interested in the sequel. It should still have good enough legs, even with Trolls the following two weeks, but expect this to go down a peg. 22/68 (3.09x)

[Eric Prime]

April 10
 

No Time to Die: I don’t know if this is still set for April 8. The Numbers and IMDb say it’s now the 10th, while Wikipedia still says the 8th. Let’s just do the 8th for now. The first trailer was a touch underwhelming, but I’m still optimistic here. The new cast members have definitely sparked interest, and there could be a finale bump with this being Craig’s swan song as the famed spy. Should at least do close to what Spectre did, but I’m going to say it does better, as it has arguably the whole month to itself until Black Widow, and that will go a long way. 70/87/220 (3.14x, 2.53x)

[misafeco]

15 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

March 27

 

Mulan: Although I appreciate Disney is actually trying to make a remake different for once, I think that will come at the cost of a lower domestic total (worldwide is a different story). By straying from the lighter animated film and making it a dark war film, younger audiences will be turned away from it. However, most of the audience that would be interested in a film with this tone is not the Disney audience and will assume it’s just another typical remake. This remake will be caught in a spot where it can’t please several demos, and its gross is going to suffer. It also doesn’t help that Mulan is closer in popularity to something like Cinderella than TLK/BATB/Aladdin. At least China should have massive returns thanks to no attachment to the source material. 50/150 (3x)

There is no way it goes that low. Cinderella (200M) is the floor. I mean, WTF, 150 is almost Dumbo DOM territory. Disney might consider stopping the production of their upcoming remakes, because if one of the most popular 90s animated classic is rejected by audiences, what can the next couple of features hope for?

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, misafeco said:

There is no way it goes that low. Cinderella (200M) is the floor. I mean, WTF, 150 is almost Dumbo DOM territory. Disney might consider stopping the production of their upcoming remakes, because if one of the most popular 90s animated classic is rejected by audiences, what can the next couple of features hope for?

I’d like this.

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, Eric Laurence said:

April 10
 

No Time to Die: I don’t know if this is still set for April 8. The Numbers and IMDb say it’s now the 10th, while Wikipedia still says the 8th. Let’s just do the 8th for now. The first trailer was a touch underwhelming, but I’m still optimistic here. The new cast members have definitely sparked interest, and there could be a finale bump with this being Craig’s swan song as the famed spy. Should at least do close to what Spectre did, but I’m going to say it does better, as it has arguably the whole month to itself until Black Widow, and that will go a long way. 70/80/215 (3.07x, 2.69x)

Am I misreading somehow, or is this OD+D2 at less than 15% of the 3-day?

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Am I misreading somehow, or is this OD+D2 at less than 15% of the 3-day?

Would you believe I’m very dense when it comes to 5-Day extrapolation?

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

Would you believe I’m very dense when it comes to 5-Day extrapolation?

To be fair, non-summer/non-holiday 5-days are the devil’s work. And I don’t believe in a Bond 5-day anymore in the first place 😛 

[Eric Prime]

@Arendelle Legion I fixed it...maybe...hopefully...please don't mock me 🙁

 

Oh yeah and April Round 2 is coming up very soon.

[Eric Prime]

April 17

 

Monster Problems: Looking through the IMDB and Wikipedia summary, this just looks like a ripoff of Zombieland, but with Dylan O’Brien as the discount Eisenberg and Michael Rooker as the discount Harrelson. LOL 8/20 (2.5x)

 

Trolls World Tour: This is anecdotal, but my sister works at a daycare, and their playroom has a TV that plays pretty much every animated movie that's come out the last 10 years. And out of a wide variety of movies, my sister mentioned Trolls is the biggest non-Disney option kids there absolutely love and can’t get enough of. Even if the film wasn’t that big in the box office at first, it’s still a moneymaker years later, with a decent amount of merch on the shelves, and it still seems relevant to kids and families, and I think this will translate to the sequel. Admittedly, its release date isn’t the best, but I think the trailers are fun enough for its audience, and the first movie’s growing popularity should still lead to a good jump in the OW, and at least a gross on par with the previous movie. 55/165 (3x)

[Eric Prime]

April 24

 

Bad Trip: So this is Bad Grandpa, only without the Jackass brand attached to it. Keanu numbers sound about right. 8/20 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

April 3

 

Fatherhood: Without a trailer, I have no idea what to expect from this. Even with Kevin Hart as the lead in a dramatic film, I don’t know if that will automatically translate to a big gross. It could be another Upside or just settle in the 40s somewhere. I’m leaning towards the latter right now. 12/44 (3.67x)

 

The Lovebirds: Again, without a trailer, it’s hard to predict this. However, the three writers don’t give me much confidence even with Michael Showalter directing. Kumail isn’t immune to bad comedies as we saw with Stuber. 10/25 (2.5x)

 

The New Mutants: This is my prediction: GOING TO DISNEY+

 

Peter Rabbit 2: This has the hallmarks of a sequel nobody asked for. Even though the first Peter Rabbit was a surprise hit with audiences, it hasn’t had any relevance after it left theaters. If Paddington 2 can lose almost half of the first’s gross, so can this. The one saving grace Peter Rabbit 2 has is Easter the following weekend, but he’s still dropping. 20/65 (3.5x)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

April 10

 

No Time to Die: Ooh, this looks good as hell. Daniel Craig needed a swan song for his way out of the Bond franchise, and this should make up for the dud that was Spectre (which I still haven’t seen in full!). It has the entire month to itself with no competition, and as the first adult action film since Birds of Prey two months ago, it will be entering the market at the right time. 70/220 (3.14x)

[Neucentro]

37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 10

 

No Time to Die: Ooh, this looks good as hell. Daniel Craig needed a swan song for his way out of the Bond franchise, and this should make up for the dud that was Spectre (which I still haven’t seen in full!). It has the entire month to itself with no competition, and as the first adult action film since Birds of Prey two months ago, it will be entering the market at the right time. 70/220 (3.14x)

That's unfair to Vin Diesel.