Liiviig 1998 Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, a2k said: Using 2.3 Thu 5.06 (+120%) 10.63 (+110%) 6.91 (-35%) = 22.60 (-61%) That Friday jump is low . 5.75( 150%) 11.25(95%) 7.28-7.87(- 30-35%) 24.28 - 24.87m ( -57 - 58% ) 1 Quote
lorddemaxus Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said: That Friday jump is low . 5.75( 150%) That friday jump is too high. Don't see the Friday jump going over +130%. 3 1 Quote
a2k Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said: That friday jump is too high. Don't see the Friday jump going over +130%. Only 1 animation crossed 150% bump this Friday in last 6 years (2014-2019) : 2014 Lego Movie +169% I didn't go back further. 2 crossed 130% but not 140% in that period: 2016 KFP3 132% 2017 Lego Bat 137% 1 Quote
Krissykins Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 THR just posted, they’re still expecting $28-30m for Sonic. 3 Quote
efialtes76 Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, Krissykins said: THR just posted, they’re still expecting $28-30m for Sonic. They're wrong as usual. 1 Quote
RamblinRed Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 I want to see how close it gets to DP 2nd weekend. It has been about 15% behind DP the last couple of days. If it did that this weekend then you would be looking at 21-22. If it does closer to what 1998 posted with a smaller Fri bump, say like +135 - $5.4 +95 - $10.5 -30 - $7.4 $23.3 raise the Sat increase to 100% and you are looking at a $23.8 weekend. 2 Quote
narniadis Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 4 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said: That Friday jump is low . 5.75( 150%) 11.25(95%) 7.28-7.87(- 30-35%) 24.28 - 24.87m ( -57 - 58% ) The discussion as a2k pointed out is based on the actual behavior the last several years. As for being inflated on Valentine's, look at any film in years past and see the trend, its a big inflation even for family films. 2014s Lego Movie is a good example as is any other animated film as well. 1 Quote
lorddemaxus Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 If Sonic does end up getting a 60% drop this weekend, could it actually miss Pikachu's final gross? I mean Pikachu consistently had mediocre to bad weekend holds but it also had much better weekdays than Sonic will end up having. I think it's gonna be a close race if Sonic ends up getting 60% drop. 2 Quote
cdsacken Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: Lol, at this point you're just trolling by repeating the same thing a hundred times You perhaps yeah, only you though. 1 Quote
cdsacken Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: If Sonic does end up getting a 60% drop this weekend, could it actually miss Pikachu's final gross? I mean Pikachu consistently had mediocre to bad weekend holds but it also had much better weekdays than Sonic will end up having. I think it's gonna be a close race if Sonic ends up getting 60% drop. With China gross being close to zero sure it wouldn't be a surprise. Again it will be a profitable film. I'd imagine under 400m ww. Pokemon had a cost of 55m higher. Edited February 21, 2020 by cdsacken 2 Quote
cdsacken Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 7 hours ago, a2k said: with inflated Friday and Sunday, and based on a video game. 58-62% is ok imo. Yep 140m would be fine. I literally expected this to bomb hard after the initial Sonic pictures rolled out. Actual profit is a win. 1 Quote
lorddemaxus Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, cdsacken said: You perhaps yeah, only you though. what? 10 minutes ago, cdsacken said: With China gross being close to zero sure it wouldn't be a surprise. Again it will be a profitable film. I'd imagine under 400m ww. Pokemon had a cost of 55m higher. If it does Pikachu numbers DOM, I wouldn't be surprised by under 300 mil WW (140 mil DOM, 150 mil OS). Quote
a2k Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D - (2) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $990,000 -2% -44% 4,236 $234 $65,523,283 14 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $72,000 +9% -48% 846 $85 $35,141,521 58 BOP crosses Suicide Squad OD on Day 14 Date Rank Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Aug 5, 2016 1 $64,893,248 4,255 $15,251 $64,893,248 1 Edited February 21, 2020 by a2k 1 6 2 Quote
a2k Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 BoP // this weekend is tougher to gauge so predicts could be worse than usual 2.25 (+127%) 3.75 (+67%) 2.5 (-33%) = 8.5 (-50.5%) will give BoP 74.0 10-day. 74 + 8.5*2.0 = 91 74 + 8.5*2.5 = 95.25 Quote
a2k Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, cdsacken said: With China gross being close to zero sure it wouldn't be a surprise. Again it will be a profitable film. I'd imagine under 400m ww. Pokemon had a cost of 55m higher. Sonic WW/WW-China could be 3.5-4x it's prod budget (95), with Dom being a strong %. Gonna be very profitable imo. 145*0.55 = 80 dom revenue (even using a low-20s weekend I think 145-150 is a safe bet) 200*0.40 = 80 os 160 global on 345 ww covers prod budget and maybe half of global marketing/release costs Just now, sfran43 said: Strong Thu (-4%). Good shot a 25 weekend, 105+ cume. Adding 2-2.5x that for 155-167.5 takes us back to original expectations after 4-day ow. Edited February 21, 2020 by a2k Quote
lorddemaxus Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, a2k said: Sonic WW/WW-China could be 3.5-4x it's prod budget (95), with Dom being a strong %. Gonna be very profitable imo. 145*0.55 = 80 dom revenue (even using a low-20s weekend I think 145-150 is a safe bet) 200*0.40 = 80 os 160 global on 345 ww covers prod budget and maybe half of global marketing/release costs OS going to be lower. Movie opened to 43 mil last weekend. An optimistic 3x will get it to 130 mil. A few more markets are opening this weekend but most of them are smaller. I'm expecting 150 mil OS. Still, it should get it to 140 mil in theatrical revenue which should cover Production costs and about a quarter of P&A+participation costs. Edited February 21, 2020 by lorddemaxus Quote
