The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

FOR ga big difference between an rt score vs. early twitter reactions

Yeah and RT score will definitely not be at the same “best SH movie ever” discourse to be really shocking , everyone expect it to be a good movie after WB strong promotion of the quality

 

Some of you are really expecting reviews to completely change the trajectory of this movie for some reason and that just don’t happen, just see how great reviews for GOTG3 did save the movie from having Quantumania level OW, but didn’t boost it that much anyway and the legs is carrying it 

 

To be fair, i do think fatigue + too many movies selling at once is hurting it, and i do expect good reviews which will help, so yeah i definitely think it won’t open with 80M, it will do close to GOTG3 imo and WOM can carry it as well, but the 150M

projections based on middling presales isn’t realistic

 

There’s 0 reason for this to behave like BA (and even then it won’t get to 150M, it would need to perform considerable better than the BA backloaded performance to reach that), every data points the likely scenario is a run close to Batman (which is in the movie as well). Unless something like Minions challenge happen, data trajectory don’t radically change the way some people here think. 
 

The reasonable expectation is a good opening (110-115M) and then very good legs due to WOM. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[GOGODanca]

3 hours ago, excel1 said:

Pretty damn obvious many here have no clue how to read this film. Expecting it's presales to perform like a Marvel esque frontloaded film is absurd. This will be much more review and walk-up driven. Notice how well it comps against walk-up crowd pleasers like Jurassic Park or Black Adam.

 

"Yes, it'd tripling Black Adam presales, and seems to be getting much better reviews, but it will only barely leak by it on opening weekend"

jurassic world is a family/GA film, people buy tickets much later for that movie, also The Flash isn't pulling an 8x IM in the summer off of 3PM Previews

[ZattMurdock]

7 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Ijack ruining any discussion in DC threads - a tradition dating back to 2012. He pretty much made BvS numbers threads unreadable back in the day.

Yes, I am the reason that BvS numbers threads were unbearable. Look, I am somewhat excited for Flash. If some of you all will act weird and try to scapegoat me into the reason x thing is unbearable, I will just avoid the thread. Have your playground, but I thought we were all better than that.

 

 

[GOGODanca]

10 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

I think all of us know what I mean. If you seriously want me to compare the ‘franchise’ with *check notes* Jonah Hex starring Josh Brolin and Megan Fox and Catwoman starring Halle Berry and Sharon Stone, be my guest. Using ‘DC’ as a franchise that goes all the way back to I don’t know, Steel isn’t it, chief.

Avatar 1 and 2 = ~$5.2b

 

DCEU = ~ $6.35b (MoS through Shazam 2, not including Joker or Batman)

[M37]

5 hours ago, raegr said:

its outpacing black adam quite a bit and that did 67m. having a hard time seeing how it only makes 20m more despite having 2-3x the sales

Because it’s not 2-3x BA, most comps there are in $13-14M range for Thursday (so below 2x) range, and it’s not going to have the same over 8x IM in June, much closer to 6x 

 

$13.5 and 6.4x —> $87M … which is $20M more than BA opening weekend (but would be much more when you compare the full opening weeks)

[M37]

 

[cax16]

46 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

It’s a tough pill to swallow sometimes being a dceu fan. We haven’t had much to cheer about since 2013 so when you hear constant online chatter about how good a movie is sometimes you let your imagination run a little wild cause we’ve seen so many marvel movies open so big.
 

For me at least, I’ve learned enough over the years to always keep my expectations in check but I do understand people dreaming about a opening weekend that’s really big. It’s also not always easy to follow the tracking thread and understanding the multipliers etc, l know for me I’m not great with that stuff so I’m just happy we have smart people in that thread(and on the forums) who can explain this stuff to us. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by cax16

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because it’s not 2-3x BA, most comps there are in $13-14M range for Thursday (so below 2x) range, and it’s not going to have the same over 8x IM in June, much closer to 6x 

 

$13.5 and 6.4x —> $87M … which is $20M more than BA opening weekend (but would be much more when you compare the full opening weeks)

Not to mention that if BA was your only datapoint (which it isn’t) and it was 2x right now for a 15.2 comp… the default case would be for that 2x to narrow to something more in the ballpark of mid 1s for like 11-12 previews.   
 

I do think summer can help counteract that somewhat with th walkups but even still the BA th comps will very likely fall, maybe a little maybe a lot

[grim22]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

It’s a tough pill to swallow sometimes being a dceu fan. We haven’t had much to cheer about since 2013 so when you hear constant online chatter about how good a movie is sometimes you let your imagination run a little wild cause we’ve seen so many marvel movies open so big.
 

For me at least, I’ve learned enough over the years to always keep my expectations in check but I do understand people dreaming about a opening weekend that’s really big. It’s also not always easy to follow the tracking thread and understanding the multipliers etc, l know for me I’m not great with that stuff so I’m just happy we have smart people in that thread(and on the forums) who can explain this stuff to us. 

 

One thing we can all agree is that no one is holier-than-thou in the tracking thread at all. And everyone is so humble and not at all trying to bait people in the least.

[cax16]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

One thing we can all agree is that no one is holier-than-thou in the tracking thread at all. And everyone is so humble and not at all trying to bait people in the least.

Everyone could probably do a better job in these threads being nicer to each other but that doesn’t usually happen lol. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[batman bot]

https://twitter.com/Reza_shuaib/status/1662804513688887303?t=MmLV-SCxNxdNBTsBHhrJ2g&s=19

[kayumanggi]

 

[YSLDC]

I'm confident in Domestic box office pulling around $350M-$400M.

 

But I will admit DCEU movies struggle overseas for some reason. 

 

Can The Flash pull $600M overseas so it can reach 1 billion?

Edited May 28, 2023 by YSLDC

[vinny2487]

So it looks like Sydney and LA had some sort of drone light show promoting The Flash. That's a new one haha 

[dallas]

Wonder Woman's early tracking suggested a $65M opening until reviews dropped, which boosted the movie too a $100M+ OW. Could we have a similar situation with The Flash?

 

Keep in mind both of these are coming off the back of poorly received movies in their universe and both will have released in June against other big blockbusters. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by dallas

[SpiderByte]

It's sounding like it's all up to Blue Beetle to put the spark back in the DC brand till Gunns Superman.

[Warmaster506]

Still a couple of weeks out and this thread is a complete dumpster fire. 

[jking123]

they should have the reviews comes out like next week. or earlier. I expect RT to be 75 to 85 at best though.

[Mr Roark]

After 5 flops in a row and WBD bleeding they are spending a huge amount of money marketing this film. They really need it to be a huge hit even tho the story leads to nothing given Gunn’s upcoming total reboot in two years.