The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

[21C]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Budget is 190-200m . Breakeven 475-500m.

It is not. The 2.5x rule is antiquated and useless for films of these scales.

I'll refer back to my previous post breaking down why the break even is 530 million.



 

On 6/10/2023 at 2:48 PM, 21C said:

Here's my extremely rough estimates on a break-even scenarios for The Flash, as I'm still not convinced by your analysis.
Some caveats:
-I'm assuming studio is getting 55% of domestic gross (Which might be a bit generous)
-I'm assuming studio is getting 40% of international gross.
-I'm using the exact same expenses and potential home entertainment/streaming/television numbers as reported in Deadline for The Batman. (The Batman also shot in the UK so it's comparable, and I feel that Deadline would've accounted for any tax incentives in the budget as they're typically extremely lenient when it comes to studio finances. Feel that assuming that this film has the same production + marketing budget as The Batman is a bit generous too, but whatever)
-I know that assuming that domestic and international are gonna be exactly 50/50 is dumb, however I found that useful just for this exercise. 
-I'm only using 50% of the reported Television/Streaming thing as the full figure accounts for the amount WBD would pay itself to put it on MAX; we don't know how much the full amount of it would be but I'll just assume it's at least 75 million so I'm not counting that.

JUST THEATRICAL

 

Domestic Box Office	445.2631579
International Box Office	445.2631579
Worldwide Box Office	890.5263158
REVENUES
Theatrical Domestic	244.8947368
Theatrical International	178.1052632
Total Revenues	423
Expenses
Production Costs	200
Prints and Ads	135
Residuals	27
Interest and Overhead	36
Participations	25
Total Expenses	423
Studio Net	0

WITH STREAMING/HOME VIDEO

Domestic Box Office	266.315789
International Box Office	266.315789
Worldwide Box Office	532.631579
REVENUES
Theatrical Domestic	146.473684
Theatrical International	106.526316
Home Entertainment	130
Television/Streaming	75
Total Revenues	458
Expenses
Production Costs	200
Prints and Ads	135
Video Costs	35
Residuals	27
Interest and Overhead	36
Participations	25
Total Expenses	458
Studio Net	0

So the film needs around 530 to break even as a whole, and 800+ to break even just theatrically.

Source on Deadline's The Batman breakdown: ‘The Batman’ Box Office Numbers: Film Earns $177M In Profit – Deadline

 

 

 

 

[WorkingonaName]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

What's the point in Aquaman 2 existing if BB then Superman are the new DCU movies?

For the Art.

[Liiviig 1998]

45 minutes ago, 21C said:

It is not. The 2.5x rule is antiquated and useless for films of these scales.

I'll refer back to my previous post breaking down why the break even is 530 million.



 

 

Just read the batman article. Deadline basically used the 2.5x rule on calculation of theatrical revenue(355m) lol. Using 55-40-25 split .

 

2.5* rule gets wonky on domestic heavy or  films with low domestic and films without china or miniscule runs there.

 

500m gets flash to 215m+ theatrical revenue (assuming 150m domestic).

Adding in all other  revenues  and using the cost structure  of batman would be enough to see it over the line.

 

If it reaches 500m . Don't know whether it will make profit but it will be considered as a movie that "broke even."

 

2.5* rule is not antiquated and still very useful .

 

To be clear it's 2.5* the production budget. Assumption is other

Revenues like streaming/VOD and so on  will cover the marketing costs over a period of time.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[BluKyberCrystal]

2 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Just read the batman article. Deadline basically used the 2.5x rule on calculation of theatrical revenue(355m) lol. Using 55-40-25 split .

 

2.5* rule gets wonky on domestic heavy or  films with low domestic and films without china or miniscule runs there.

 

500m gets flash to 215m+ theatrical revenue (assuming 150m domestic).

Adding in all other  revenues  and using the cost structure  of batman would be enough to see it over the line.

 

If it reaches 500m . Don't know whether it will make profit but it will be considered as a movie that "broke even."

 

2.5* rule is not antiquated and still very useful .

 

 

 

What about all the other costs, like marketing and distribution?

[21C]

22 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

What about all the other costs, like marketing and distribution?

I accounted for the marketing costs in my breakdown. Distribution idk why Deadline doesn't list it.

[21C]

27 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Just read the batman article. Deadline basically used the 2.5x rule on calculation of theatrical revenue(355m) lol. Using 55-40-25 split .

 

2.5* rule gets wonky on domestic heavy or  films with low domestic and films without china or miniscule runs there.

 

500m gets flash to 215m+ theatrical revenue (assuming 150m domestic).

Adding in all other  revenues  and using the cost structure  of batman would be enough to see it over the line.

 

If it reaches 500m . Don't know whether it will make profit but it will be considered as a movie that "broke even."

 

2.5* rule is not antiquated and still very useful .

 

To be clear it's 2.5* the production budget. Assumption is other

Revenues like streaming/VOD and so on  will cover the marketing costs over a period of time.

 

 

 

 

 

I guess you can make an argument they used something like the 2.5x rule adding the amount that WBD pays itself to put it on HBO MAX... but I reaaally don't see the point in counting that. 

[dudalb]

11 minutes ago, 21C said:

I guess you can make an argument they used something like the 2.5x rule adding the amount that WBD pays itself to put it on HBO MAX... but I reaaally don't see the point in counting that. 

ANyway, I think, barring some unpredecented turn around, best case scenario is the film will make only a minor profit. That is not what WB spenct 200 Million plus for. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by dudalb

[Liiviig 1998]

17 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

To be clear it's 2.5* the production budget. Assumption is other

Revenues like streaming/VOD and so on  will cover the marketing costs over a period of time.

👆This

 

 

15 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

What about all the other costs, like marketing and distribution?

 

Breakeven is complicated  . The range is 2-2.5* depending on the movie.

 

Little mermaid breakeven point is 560m according to deadline (2.2*) .The movie is skewing domestic.

 

It's all has to do with the DoM/Os-china/china split. This 2-2.5 range is not just casual .

 

Another case in point Startrek into darkness made 10m profit according to deadline. It made around 440m on a 190m budget.

 

Theatrical revenue- production cost

Other revenues - other costs.

 

As long as the theartrical revenue exceeds production cost . A film has a chance at breaking even or gaining profit but it depends. movies like FF with huge casts have alot of costs involved.

 

F8 made 50m profit on a box office of 1.2bn on a 250m budget.

 

Batman cost structure was 458m (200pdt + 135M Marketing + additional costs). Using that as a baseline 

 

If flash were to do 500(possibly 210M+ theatrical revenue then adding other revenues would be enough to get it past 458m cost threshold.= Breakeven.

 

Very few movies cover there entire cost on theatrical alone. At worst studios should ensure box-office is enough to enable them to cover their production cost at least .

 

 

[21C]

6 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

👆This

 

 

 

Breakeven is complicated  . The range is 2-2.5* depending on the movie.

 

Little mermaid breakeven point is 560m according to deadline (2.2*) .The movie is skewing domestic.

 

It's all has to do with the DoM/Os-china/china split. This 2-2.5 range is not just casual .

 

Another case in point Startrek into darkness made 10m profit according to deadline. It made around 440m on a 190m budget.

 

Theatrical revenue- production cost

Other revenues - other costs.

 

As long as the theartrical revenue exceeds production cost . A film has a chance at breaking even or gaining profit but it depends. movies like FF with huge casts have alot of costs involved.

 

F8 made 50m profit on a box office of 1.2bn on a 250m budget.

 

Batman cost structure was 458m (200pdt + 135M Marketing + additional costs). Using that as a baseline 

 

If flash were to do 500(possibly 210M+ theatrical revenue then adding other revenues would be enough to get it past 458m cost threshold.= Breakeven.

 

Very few movies cover there entire cost on theatrical alone. At worst studios should ensure box-office is enough to enable them to cover their production cost at least .

 

 

I do not understand your breakdown at all... I literally used The Batman as a baseline using Deadline data, taking into account the whole "it'll make money on digital" thing and this was the result. It's not 500. It's 530.

 

WITH STREAMING/HOME VIDEO

Domestic Box Office	266.315789
International Box Office	266.315789
Worldwide Box Office	532.631579
REVENUES
Theatrical Domestic	146.473684
Theatrical International	106.526316
Home Entertainment	130
Television/Streaming	75
Total Revenues	458
Expenses
Production Costs	200
Prints and Ads	135
Video Costs	35
Residuals	27
Interest and Overhead	36
Participations	25
Total Expenses	458
Studio Net	0

[Johnny Tran]

14 minutes ago, dudalb said:

ANyway, I think, barring some unpredecented turn around, best case scenario is the film will make only a minor profit. That is not what WB spenct 200 Million plus for. 

 

It doesn't really matter.  That was the old regime.  Again, this was very close to being canceled.  They've done a good job of mitigating that issue.  If they make a minor profit?  Even better.  

 

The film appears to be good and is a crowd pleaser.  Will likely do well on VOD.  

 

Then James Gunn gets a fresh start with Superman.  Disaster is avoided. 

[Liiviig 1998]

8 minutes ago, 21C said:

I do not understand your breakdown at all... I literally used The Batman as a baseline using Deadline data, taking into account the whole "it'll make money on digital" thing and this was the result. It's not 500. It's 530.

 

WITH STREAMING/HOME VIDEO

Domestic Box Office	266.315789
International Box Office	266.315789
Worldwide Box Office	532.631579
REVENUES
Theatrical Domestic	146.473684
Theatrical International	106.526316
Home Entertainment	130
Television/Streaming	75
Total Revenues	458
Expenses
Production Costs	200
Prints and Ads	135
Video Costs	35
Residuals	27
Interest and Overhead	36
Participations	25
Total Expenses	458
Studio Net	0

You because you basically cut television/streaming by half . Don't think it can come as high as batman 150m but what's your  rationale for that huge cut. 

 

Eternals which was not liked that much did huge stream wise . Flash with Keaton batman should pretty good on streaming.

 

Once again you have not given any ample reason for why 2.5* is antiquated.

[martin]

25 minutes ago, 21C said:

I do not understand your breakdown at all... I literally used The Batman as a baseline using Deadline data, taking into account the whole "it'll make money on digital" thing and this was the result. It's not 500. It's 530.

 

WITH STREAMING/HOME VIDEO

Domestic Box Office	266.315789
International Box Office	266.315789
Worldwide Box Office	532.631579
REVENUES
Theatrical Domestic	146.473684
Theatrical International	106.526316
Home Entertainment	130
Television/Streaming	75
Total Revenues	458
Expenses
Production Costs	200
Prints and Ads	135
Video Costs	35
Residuals	27
Interest and Overhead	36
Participations	25
Total Expenses	458
Studio Net	0

We understand,u just want this flash and WB to be failed and bankrupt all Doom and gloom,we get it. Move on....

[ThomasNicole]

49 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Disaster is avoided. 

Is it? We all know how the media approach these movies is important for these franchises. 
 

Shazam 2 was a disaster and now Flash can do 500-550M only which economical isn’t a disaster I agreed with you, but it will likely be perceived as one by media and fans which will only put more pressure on DC going forward. 
 

And they still have Aquaman coming which everyone keeps saying is a gigantic bomb quality-wise. 
 

Yeah it was the old regime projects and what really matters is how things will be from Superman and beyond, but the pressure is already big and the end of the “old regime” which is the four 2023 movies is shaping up to be perceived as a disaster overall with likely 4 disappointments at some degree in a row.  
 

The discourse will be very bad, I honestly hope Superman will be an excellent movie and 2 years of hiatus from Aquaman 2 to Superman will be enough to calm down the discussions a bit.

Edited June 14, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[21C]

30 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

You because you basically cut television/streaming by half . Don't think it can come as high as batman 150m but what's your  rationale for that huge cut. 

 

Eternals which was not liked that much did huge stream wise . Flash with Keaton batman should pretty good on streaming.

 

Once again you have not given any ample reason for why 2.5* is antiquated.

I did so because, per Deadline's own article, a good chunk of the "streaming" thing is because that accounts for the amount of money that WBD pays itself to put it on MAX. "Global streaming TV revenues of $150M includes the amount that Warners pays itself to put the movie on HBO Max." I do not know the exact amount that WBD is giving itself, but it seems to constitute a good chunk so I might as well cut it in half. 

[Speedorito]

It’s interesting how the narrative around this movie went from “This movie will be a huge success and anyone who says otherwise just has a vendetta against DC movies” to “Y’know, it’s actually not a bad thing if the movie they pushed incredibly hard barely opens above Black Adam and barely makes a profit (if it even breaks even)”

[Dominic Draper]

A lot of scenes have been spreading like wildfire on social media and to say the response has been unkind would be an under statement. This is JL207 all over again.

[Liiviig 1998]

33 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

It’s interesting how the narrative around this movie went from “This movie will be a huge success and anyone who says otherwise just has a vendetta against DC movies” to “Y’know, it’s actually not a bad thing if the movie they pushed incredibly hard barely opens above Black Adam and barely makes a profit (if it even breaks even)”

In my mind had 850ish at best but I thought it would do at least JL numbers. Guess we overestimated Keaton nostalgia appeal and just how unexcited GA is about DCEU overall.

 

Flash was always a wild card but just found 500m domestic club laughbly Optimistic.

 

Marketing of best supero film shot them in the foot . Wanted to create hype but it just didn't work. 

 

Dceu streak of bombs is legendary . Will see how weekend turns out but this is starting to look embarrassing  no words around it.

 

 

[Mr Roark]

This film used almost the entire marketing budget of Shazam 2 as well. Anything under $600M would make it a huge disappointment anyway…

[exomassey]

The most recent reviews on RT are fairly positive. Critically it’s not doing too bad.

 

Maybe word of mouth might help here.

 

 

[Claudio]

DCEU is cursed for real.
Out of 12 movies so far (before Flash). Only 3 movies managed to become super hits: Wonder Woman, Aquaman and Suicide Squad.

MOS was a success but not a *big* success. Same goes to BvS which was a disappointment relative to expectations both financially and critically.

Shazam was doing great and financially successful but not a big hit.

JL flopped and so did the last 5 DCEU films in a row (BOP, WW84,TSS,BA and Shazam 2).

 

With Flash looking to disappoint also, Blue Beetle looking more like a miss than hit and Aquaman 2 looking not too bright. 

Meanwhile 2 standalone DC movies that wasn’t part of the DCEU (The Batman and Joker) had a great success both critically and financially.

 

So I think it’s a Great Idea for WB to dump DCEU and begin a new start through DCU and hopefully making many more stand-alone DC movies again in the future.