2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Always felt a Good Boys type of run would be the right expectation to have for Bros. A solid result for sure, but it won't be The Movie That Saves the Studio Comedy or anything (media-made narratives like that almost never pan out anyway).

Nah, it's Apatow produced, targets the gay audience and gives marginalized group a film to embrace, and will probably be premiering at TIFF with possible awards buzz. It should do much better than Good Boys. The reviews will be twice as good, too. 

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Nah, it's Apatow produced, targets the gay audience and gives marginalized group a film to embrace, and will probably be premiering at TIFF with possible awards buzz. It should do much better than Good Boys. The reviews will be twice as good, too. 

160% RT, 120% MC confirmed

[MCKillswitch123]

I didn't predict Bros to hit $100m because I too feel like buzz is relatively muted on it and Apatow - who doesn't even direct - hasn't been that relevant in a very long time. But I would be very happy if it did that well and if it were, say, the Crazy Rich Asians for the LGBTQIA+ community. If it does get good reviews, it could breakout and hit that mark, which would be significant.

 

Still, right now, I feel like Ticket to Paradise is a safer bet. A rom-com with two massive stars from the 90's seems ripe to drive older audiences in spades, who don't necessarily show up to give views and likes on YouTube but come out en mass to the movie theater. I'm predicting high on that for the moment.

Edited July 11, 2022 by MCKillswitch123

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I didn't predict Bros to hit $100m because I too feel like buzz is relatively muted on it and Apatow - who doesn't even direct - hasn't been that relevant in a very long time. But I would be very happy if it did that well and if it were, say, the Crazy Rich Asians for the LGBTQIA+ community. If it does get good reviews, it could breakout and hit that mark, which would be significant.

 

Still, right now, I feel like Ticket to Paradise is a safer bet. A rom-com with two massive stars from the 90's seems ripe to drive older audiences in spades, who don't necessarily show up to give views and likes on YouTube but come out en mass to the movie theater. I'm predicting high on that for the moment.

If you are arguing relevance, when was last time either Clooney or Roberts had a successful film?

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

If you are arguing relevance, when was last time either Clooney or Roberts had a successful film?

 

I mean, they're still Clooney and Roberts. Anyone over the age of 25 knows who they are, and romantic comedies for adult audiences starring name references is a currently underserved niche.

 

Sure, so is the LGBTQIA+ community, but I don't know, I think Paradise has broader appeal. I'm not saying I want it to make more money than Bros, I'm saying I think it will.

Edited July 11, 2022 by MCKillswitch123

[filmlover]

Money Monster (the last Clooney/Roberts pairing) made $41M and that was a thriller. Double that shouldn't be too much of a hurdle for this since the material is more in tune with the comfort zones of both stars.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Money Monster (the last Clooney/Roberts pairing) made $41M and that was a thriller. Double that shouldn't be too much of a hurdle for this since the material is more in tune with the comfort zones of both stars.

41 is not good and that was like 2016

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I mean, they're still Clooney and Roberts. Anyone over the age of 25 knows who they are, and romantic comedies for adult audiences starring name references is a currently underserved niche.

 

Sure, so is the LGBTQIA+ community, but I don't know, I think Paradise has broader appeal. I'm not saying I want it to make more money than Bros, I'm saying I think it will.

I’ve heard Ticket to Paradise isn’t great and Clooney/Roberts aren’t exactly a draw anymore. I’m thinking like 60ish

[Juby]

Guess who's back?!

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Maverick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift

 

 

 

My updated counter-prediction:

 

Top Gun: Maverick $670m (+$45m) 
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) 
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $412m (-$3m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $375m (-$5m)
The Batman $369.3m

Thor: Love and Thunder $360m (-$90m)
Minions: The Rise of Gru $330m (+$120m)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9m

 

No other +$190m grosser this year.

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Juby

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I'm so happy for TGM but I doubt it will hit $670 million. I'm thinking more between $640 and $650 million.

[WittyUsername]

Outside of Wakanda Forever and The Way of Water, the rest of 2022 is looking pretty boring. 

[Juby]

11 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I'm so happy for TGM but I doubt it will hit $670 million. I'm thinking more between $640 and $650 million.

 

TGM legs for now are x4.71 and it had $597.4m after last weekend. If it keep this pace (after $15.5m 7th weekend) till the end of its run, it will finish with exactly $670.4m. The rest of July and August are basiclly empty, there's no competition for TGM and no word about streaming/Blu-ray release date. $670m is easily achievable, I think it Infinity War is still the goal here.

[Grebacio]

What are your updated predictions for domestic grosses of Avatar, Top Gun and Black Panther?

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I'd say $670 million is in the bag for TGM (I know I was saying it is silly), but if they push it more at the end of the summer, $675-680 million wouldn't be impossible.

 

Now seeing BP2 trailer, I'd say $500 million should be doable. Avatar 2, somewhere in the line of TGM, but it's gonna be tight I think.

[p a p i]

I would love for Barbarian to be a box office Success. 20th Century Studios need some wins other than Avatar. Whatever Barbarian costs(low I imagine), I hope it makes x2.5 its budget. That would be big. 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

Apart from “Top Gun”, I suppose that with Japan release JW3 may reach 1 billion, “Avatar” is a lock, and I could maybe see “Black Panther 2” doing so, although I think it will experience a decline compared to the first one. Not huge, but still a decline. And that’s about it this year.

[MattW]

On 7/6/2022 at 5:16 AM, stripe said:

 

I expect bigger numbers for July. Around 1,100M. First month to reach the billion mark.

 

In fact just the sum of Thor and Minions July grosses can very well be over 700M

 

Add 100M from TG2, 60M from Elvis, 40-50M from JWD, 30M from BP. And July is already over your 925M prediction. 

 

Then there are some possible breakouts (Nope, Crawdads, which combined should add 100M+ inJuly), and there are two animated films that can add 50M.

 

 

 

Good call, looks like 1125 or so. Not sure how I came up with such a low number even after we saw minions opening. 

Puts July at about 90% of the previous average, best month of the recovery so far beating out Oct last year with 88%. 

 

August looks unpleasant to me. This weekend holdovers will do 75-80m, plus 20-30 superpets and maybe a tiny addition from vengeance, 100-110 total. So August holdovers should make 220-250 during the month of August, and new releases I think 250 is being generous. 500m-ish? Hard to say, with a weaker 2nd half of the month very possible a few movies get an expansion the last weekend of the month like Jurassic World did in 2015, but that still wouldn't add that much.

Edited July 28, 2022 by MattW
sp

[jedijake]

TGM will be #1 for the year. I don't think Avatar2 will catch it to be honest. I do think that Avatar2 will break $600 million though. However, I think that BPWF will temper Av2's stampede a little.

[stripe]

11 hours ago, MattW said:

Good call, looks like 1125 or so. Not sure how I came up with such a low number even after we saw minions opening. 

Puts July at about 90% of the previous average, best month of the recovery so far beating out Oct last year with 88%. 

 

August looks unpleasant to me. This weekend holdovers will do 75-80m, plus 20-30 superpets and maybe a tiny addition from vengeance, 100-110 total. So August holdovers should make 220-250 during the month of August, and new releases I think 250 is being generous. 500m-ish? Hard to say, with a weaker 2nd half of the month very possible a few movies get an expansion the last weekend of the month like Jurassic World did in 2015, but that still wouldn't add that much.

 

Thanks! I overpredicted the sum of Minions and Thor, but compensated with the rest of movies grossing a bit more than I said.

 

Let's do the same for August. Openers:
Bullet train - 100-120M (30-40M opening)

Easter Sunday - 20-30M

Bodies, bodies, bodies - 40M (but it can gross more, reviews say it's a fun horror film)

Beast - 40-50M (another possible surprise here)

Dragon Ball - 30M

Invitation - 20M

So conservatively, I would say 250-290M range.

 

Add:

60M - Superpets

50M - Nope

40M - TGM

30M - Thor

30M - Minions

25M - Crawdads

15M - Elvis

And 20M+ from the rest of movies.

So around 270-300M from holdovers.

 

600M is the goal for this August, IMHO. Quite possible if one of these (Bullet train, Bodies or Beast) overperform.

 

[stripe]

On 7/29/2022 at 10:58 AM, stripe said:

 

Thanks! I overpredicted the sum of Minions and Thor, but compensated with the rest of movies grossing a bit more than I said.

 

Let's do the same for August. Openers:
Bullet train - 100-120M (30-40M opening)

Easter Sunday - 20-30M

Bodies, bodies, bodies - 40M (but it can gross more, reviews say it's a fun horror film)

Beast - 40-50M (another possible surprise here)

Dragon Ball - 30M

Invitation - 20M

So conservatively, I would say 250-290M range.

 

Add:

60M - Superpets

50M - Nope

40M - TGM

30M - Thor

30M - Minions

25M - Crawdads

15M - Elvis

And 20M+ from the rest of movies.

So around 270-300M from holdovers.

 

600M is the goal for this August, IMHO. Quite possible if one of these (Bullet train, Bodies or Beast) overperform.

 

 

Man, I almost overpredicted everything this month.Only movies to meet the numbers I guessed were Dragon Ball, TGM, Thor, Minions and Crawdads.
Sadly, neither Bodies bodies bodies, Beast, Invitation or BT overperformed.

At least, this August grossed more than 2021 (around 460M vs 417M) despite the weak schedule